Monday, June 02, 2008

Map of Prime-Rated Loan Foreclosures

sf jack spotted this graphic showing areas where prime loans are starting to blow up:

Yes, Marin is one of them. If you are having trouble seeing that our tiny county is one of many in the most distressed category, according to this analysis, here's a closer view:

13 Comments:

Blogger Thus Spake Z said...

This would only be meaningful if it were attached to the number of prime loan foreclosures one year ago and today. I suspect the 200% increase in Marin/the central Bay Area is from a few to two times a few. Nothing to draw conclusions from if that is indeed the case, as small numbers can be be the result of too many factors to identfy causative issues.

Jun 3, 2008, 1:23:00 PM  
Blogger Alarming said...

Bemanke signals more rate cuts are unlikely. What does this mean to the housing market? We should expect more foreclosures to come.

Jun 3, 2008, 1:24:00 PM  
Blogger Lisa said...

Prime got "watered down" along with everything else in the lending bubble. I know plenty of $200K a year couples living in $1MM+ condos and houses in Southern Marin. It's not sustainable over the long haul, not with the cost of everything else these days.

Thank heavens BB has finally figured out that his panic rate cuts have unleashed horrible inflation and $4 gas across the U.S. I'd love to see him raise rates, but he probably won't before the Election.

Jun 3, 2008, 2:20:00 PM  
Blogger sf jack said...

"Nothing to draw conclusions from if that is indeed the case, as small numbers can be be the result of too many factors to identfy causative issues."

*****

You know those scenes in Charlie Brown TV programs when the teacher is talking?

You know the ones, right?

What's that teacher sound like to Charlie Brown?

It must sound something like how the rest of the world sounds to someone who lives in Marin, (and because of such) one specifically who specializes in cognitive dissonance.

"Blah, blah, blah, blah... blah, blah, blah... blah, blah, blah..."

*****

Hopefully, with a quote from this blog from some time ago, I can refresh some memories as well as introduce some newbies to more of the "we're different" Kool-Aid of Marin:

"... you can wear shorts playing golf in January and drive four hours to go skiing!"

Jun 3, 2008, 3:07:00 PM  
Blogger marinite2 said...

"... you can wear shorts playing golf in January and drive four hours to go skiing!"

I miss fredtobik... and all the other kool aid drinking, social darwinist Marin bulls. I wonder why they don't come around here anymore (or at least admit that they still visit this blog). Maybe because they were wrong?

Anyway, the point about presenting percentages in the absence of raw numbers is, of course, legitimate. If I knew the raw data I would have presented it. I am currently in the process of trying to get that data from CoreLogic.

But until then, since it has been claimed (by Marin bulls no less) that the Marin market consists of little if any "sub-prime" loans, and considering that on May 10, 2008 Marin pre-foreclosures was 478, in May of 2007 it was 168, and in May 2006 it was 35, a case could be made that most of the loans blowing up now in Marin are "prime".

Jun 3, 2008, 3:18:00 PM  
Blogger Lisa said...

"..considering that on May 10, 2008 Marin pre-foreclosures was 478, in May of 2007 it was 168, and in May 2006 it was 35, a case could be made that most of the loans blowing up now in Marin are "prime"."

Bingo. I don't care how "prime" someone's FICO score was when they bought, if they have an adjustable mortgage on a house they can no longer afford once the loan resets...guess what will likely happen...

We will get whacked just like the "Subprime" areas. It just will happen later here, as AltA and Prime loans typically have longer periods to reset. It's not brain surgery, for heaven's sake -);

Jun 3, 2008, 9:01:00 PM  
Blogger marin_explorer said...

If they have an adjustable mortgage on a house they can no longer afford once the loan resets...guess what will likely happen...

And that can happen to a lot of demographics. It's not hard to get over your head with so much societal pressure.

Does anyone remember that IJ article a few years back where a younger couple just "had to" buy in Belvedere...so they got an IO on a $3M home. I wonder where they are now--parent bailout, or impending foreclosure?

Jun 4, 2008, 6:56:00 PM  
Blogger marinite2 said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

Jun 5, 2008, 11:32:00 AM  
Blogger marinite2 said...

And that can happen to a lot of demographics. It's not hard to get over your head with so much societal pressure.

I just read in the Chronicle that Ed McMahon is foreclosing on his $4.8M mortgage; he's $644K behind on payments.

Of course, he doesn't live in Marin and so we "know" his situation doesn't apply here because we are so different. Just saying...

http://tinyurl.com/5u3jzp

Jun 5, 2008, 11:33:00 AM  
Blogger marin_explorer said...

...Ed McMahon is foreclosing on his $4.8M mortgage

Sigh. I wonder how many BH pads he burned through during his Tonight Show tenure? He seems to have left quite a financial paper trail.

But no...nobody does that here. Life in Marin is so...effortless; it would be vulgar to suggest otherwise.

Jun 7, 2008, 1:56:00 PM  
Blogger mountainwatcher said...

I just heard the new real estate agent's reason for Marin RE prices to hold steady.

"With the higher gas prices, people will have to move closer to San Francisco. Marin is the perfect place."

My logic tells me that it would take very many fill ups to pay for these bloated house prices.
Am I crazy?

Jun 8, 2008, 1:24:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

Leave it to unscrupulous realtors/agents to ever fabricate more and more "reasonable" sounding excuses to keep pumping the party line of 'buy now and pay me a commission'.

Jun 8, 2008, 12:57:00 PM  
Blogger Syam said...

Great info. I learned a lot of new things here...

Personal Life Coaching
http://Personal-life-coaching.blogspot.com

Jul 25, 2008, 12:20:00 PM  

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home

Terms of Use: The purpose of the Marin Real Estate Bubble weblog (located at URL http://marinrealestatebubble.blogspot.com/ and henceforth referred to as “MREB” or “this site”) is to present and discuss information relating to real estate and the real estate industry in general (locally, state-wide, nationally, and internationally) as it pertains to the thesis that recent real estate related activity is properly characterized as a “speculative mania” or a “bubble”. MREB is a non-profit, community site that depends on community participation and feedback. While MREB administrators do strive to confirm all information presented here and qualify all doubtful items, the information presented at MREB is neither definitive nor should it be construed as professional advice. All information published on MREB is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind and the administrators of this site shall not be liable for any direct or indirect damages arising out of use of this site. This site is moderated by MREB administrators and the MREB administrators reserve the right to edit, remove, or refuse postings that are off-topic, defamatory, libelous, offensive, or otherwise deemed inappropriate by MREB administrators. You should consult a finance professional before making any decisions based on information found on this site.

The contributors to this site may, from time to time, hold short (or long) positions in mentioned and related companies.