Tuesday, August 16, 2005

Marin Sales Results as of July [updated]

[Update: It turns out that I used the wrong July data for the second figure -- YoY percent sales were actually worse for July. I've updated the graph accordingly.]

No doubt by now you have read in other blogs that sales are down yet again across the Bay Area as is the home builder index. So that means it's time to post some charts for "God's country" updated for July (note that these results lag by a couple of months due to the time it takes to close a typical escrow).

The first chart shows that the number of houses put on the market in Marin County was very strong yet, as the second chart shows, percent sales remain firmly in negative territory (clicking on any chart will enlarge it).



8 Comments:

Blogger Van Housing Blogger said...

Excellent charts! It's funny that bulls never seem to use data. Maybe that's because anyone who looks seriously at the data becomes a bear . . .

Aug 16, 2005, 9:24:00 PM  
Blogger Peter P said...

... or they use year-over-two-year-ago data. ;)

Aug 16, 2005, 10:43:00 PM  
Blogger marin_explorer said...

second chart: what does the vertical axis signify?

Aug 17, 2005, 7:09:00 AM  
Blogger marin_explorer said...

oh, perhaps I get it now: the graph compares the number of sales to the same month of previous year, returning a percentage? So, we're basically saying: higher volume, but decreased sales?

Aug 17, 2005, 8:04:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

"So, we're basically saying: higher volume, but decreased sales?"

Exactly.

Same as pretty much everywhere these days; Marin is not special in this way.

Aug 17, 2005, 8:54:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

Incidentally, this morning I got email alerts from my automated "MLS listing service" for Novato for houses in the range of $600K to $1 million" -- 12 houses that were sold 2-4 weeks ago are now relisted. In other words, they "fell through escrow". I have never in the last two years had a notification of such a large number of houses falling through escrow. Usually, for Novato it is like one or two.

Aug 17, 2005, 12:49:00 PM  
Blogger marin_explorer said...

I have never in the last two years had a notification of such a large number of houses falling through escrow.

Have investors panicked yet?
I seem to be noticing a lot of properties sitting longer w/signs. In particular, one 2 br 1100sqft San Anselmo "home" (flipped bungalow) for $800K. I suspect a lot of Marin sellers will rather wait than sell lower...I wonder how long before reality sets in? I'm guessing it will be like a slowly building snowball, vs an avalanche.

Aug 18, 2005, 12:04:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...

I agree, sellers will hold out at high prices for as long as they can the logic being "it only takes one buyer to get my price". That's how it always is and I would not be any different.

I know of one house on Mt. Tam in what used to be the Flying-Y Ranch that has been sitting for sale for over a year. Just sitting. I bet that owner is kicking himself for not taking his first best offer.

Aug 18, 2005, 4:54:00 PM  

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