I was having an on-line discussion with a fellow blog reader and he suggested that this blog should have an entry where people who track the pricing history of specific Marin addresses can post their observations. So here it is; this is the place.
For example, if you have been watching the pricing history of, say, 123 Somewhere St., SomeMarinTown, CA 9494x, then this is the place to post your observations.
Other than basic common courtesy and human decency, etc., there are only two rules: 1) be on-topic, 2) no trolls. Unlike all other posts on this blog, off-topic posts in this category will get deleted.
This could prove to be both very interesting and informative. It's up to you, the three readers ;)
Thanks,
Marinite
17 comments:
Real estate prices do indeed fall in Marin, This example was posted by a home seeker on another blog, and was too good to ignore. I'll provide my own research in the coming days.
Corte Madera, currently listed at 1.15M
http://tinyurl.com/ao9pa
"Been tracking this one since April, starting at 1.48. Has popped off and on MLS at least 3 times, at lower price, the last time they featured the price reduction in the listing.
I’d consider buying sub .9M, very seriously at .8M. Mainly because of the 2.2acres (about .5 buildable).
Selling agent called me today to find if I was “still interested” because the first and only offer just fell through. She said the buyer decided “to wait and
see/got cold feet”. I asked if they’d take a lowball offer, she said she still won’t present any offers below 1.15, or owners fire her. "
I rent in San Anselmo, sold my house in Fairfax in '04. I see quite a few places just sitting and price reductions as well. A house on my old street in Fairfax has been on the market for about 3 months, started at $875K, now down to $785K and still sitting. Open Houses most Sunday's and nothing. GLAD I'M OUT!!!!
I know of two houses where the owner refuses to lower their asking price and as a result the house has sat for a long time.
One is in San Anselmo just off Butterfield Rd in the Sleepy Hallow area. In 2003 the seller had to take a new job in NYC and so wanted to sell their very nice house for $1.4 mill (I went inside pretending to be a potential buyer; it is a very nice house with a respectable lot; 3 bedrooms; a New England style build). They could not sell at that price even after the house sat for the better part of a year. So, in 2004 the owner then rented it out instead. I inquired about it a couple months ago and it is still being rented. I'm glad the seller can afford to carry two mortgages but this illustrates that a stubborn refusal to sell at a lower price results in being unable to sell at all.
The second example is a new house up Panoramic Hwy in unincorporated Mill Valley in what used to be the Flying-Y ranch. I don't know the details but the house has been listed for more than a year. As it is a new development I am sure it is a nice house. I guess the owners are unwilling to lower the price from what they paid and so it continues to sit. I should really check this house out and get more info on it.
Regarding inventory, do we have any conclusive stats for Marin? Here's some numbers I've taken from Realtor.com for the county. I'm not sure how accurate they are, but they suggest inventory is up:
8/28:
SF: 866
Condo: 109
10/8
SF: 1086
Condo: 191
Moving this anonymous post to here.
I've been tracking lots of houses. There's one on Sophia in Novato. It went on a market more than a month ago for $1.040 million. It has 3,200 square feet, a large lot, 4 bedrooms and 4 baths, plus garage parking for 3 cars. It was just pulled off the market. My guess is that it received no offers (at least no offers at the asking price). There are two more identical houses nearby that are on the market with even higher asking prices.
Another house I've been tracking is a resale in The Hills section of the Atherton Ranch development in Novato. There are still new houses available in The Hills. The house I'm tracking was purchased brand new in May 2005. It has 3,500 square, feet, 4 bedrooms and 3.5 baths. It's never been lived in. It's been on the resale market for close to two months. Original asking was around $1.195 million. They're now asking $1.050 million.
I believe that the two previous examples show a rapidly cooling market in Marin. Of course, people still have to buy houses, but the fever is gone.
Ok, so this comment is not in Marin, but pretty darned close. There's a house in Sonoma county my wife has been tracking. Six months ago the sellers wanted $850,000. Today they are asking $425,000. That's a 50% drop folks.
Here's another Marin story that sheds light on current pricing, demand, and local attitudes towards RE:
in 2003, we found a house in fairfax, CA that we fell in love with. sold the SF house for $520K (!!!) and purchased the one in fairfax for $480K. When my husband got laid off from his job in SF, he started working as a consultant in LA. eventually, (this spring), they offered him a full time, full benefit position. We went back and forth for weeks. he didn’t want to move- he thought he could commute down every week- tried it a few times and figured out that was no way to spend your life- trapped in LAX or SFO twice a week.
then he thought we should rent our house in fairfax- we figured that we could just about cover our mortgage payment with renters, but not our insurance, taxes, etc. I didn’t paticularly want to be a landlord, anyway-- especially a money losing one!
When my next door neighbor bought another house (exactly like ours) down our street for $719K, I told hubby that this was IT. All the planets were in alignment and the time was right. We put the house on the market in May. got 6 offers. the “winning” bid was for $729K- from the same next door neighbor that bought the other house . that man has singlehandedly pushed up the “comps” by over paying for the 1st house, and then WAY over paying for ours.
I feel bad for him. I thinks he’s got to be freaking out about what’s now seeming to happen (another house on the same street- on the market for 3 months at 720K, just reduced to $689K and no offers)
This is another example of what I've suspected: Marin locals buying up extra real estate, hoping to score big--only to find it can't be sold at the supposed "value".
Here's another:
Update on the house across the street in Fairfax… 1bdrm 1bath w tiny low ceiling studio unit downstairs.
Beginning price 799K
Reduced to 779K after 3 weeks
Reduced to 699 after 6 weeks
Taken off market this week.
$799K-$699K for a 1BR? And it didn't sell? Go figure.
Here's an interesting collection of sales histories for homes in San Anselmo. This represents a fairly narrow segment of the market, but I was very surprised at the number of price reductions (as well as significant markups) Btw: Google works quite well at finding the old prices on reduced properties. I'll leave out the exact address, although it's public knowledge:
5BR/2BA,
sold 11/01: $640K
recent original price: $1.05M
reduced 10/05: $949K
3BR/2.5BA, 1406 sqft
sold 6/05: $965K
for sale 10/05: $1.08M
4BR/2BA,
sold 3/05: $939K
recent original price: $1.3M
reduced 10/05: $1.1M
3BR,2BA, 2400 sqft
originally: $1.3M
reduced: $1.2M
reduced 10/05: $1.1M
3BR/2BA, 1600 sqft
sold 11/00: $363K
resold 3/04: $1.1M
10/05 price: $1.2M
2BR/2BA, 1060 sqft
originally: $800K
reduced 9/05: $774K
reduced 10/05: $729K
2BR/2BA, 1100 sqft
sold 4/02: $475K
sold 5/03: $500K
sold 10/05: $720K
4BR/2BA, 3600 sqft
sold 10/04: $1.16M
for sale10/05: $2.15M (good luck!)
4BR/5BA, sqft unknown
originally: $2.85M
10/05: $2.45M
These pricing histories were emailed to me by reskeptic. Good work! Just to drive the point home I've been encouraged to share the addresses as all of this information is in the public domain. They point out just how utterly absurd Marin RE pricing is and how shockingly foolish people are to pay it.
1104 Sir Francis Drake, San Anselmo:
In 1996 listed at $195,000
In Oct 2005 listed at $1,200,000
That's an increase of 6.15x in 9 years.
69 Bella Vista San Anselmo:
In Aug 2001 listed at $625,000
In Oct 2005 listed at $1,270,000
That's an increase of 2.03x in 4 years.
48 Lagoon Road, San Rafael:
In Aug 1998 listed at $457,000
In Oct 2005 listed at $1,060,000
That's an increase of 2.32x in 7 years.
140 Ross, San Rafael:
In May 2005 listed at $647,000
In Oct 2005 listed at $829,000
That's an increase of 28% in 5 months.
148 Waterside, San Rafael:
In Aug 1995 listed at $379,000
In Oct 2005 listed at $919,000
That's an increase of 2.42x in 10 years.
197 Corte Ramon, Greenbrae:
In Jul 2003 listed at $850,000
In Oct 2005 listed at $1,800,000
That's an increase of 2.12x in 2.25 years.
8 Center, San Rafael:
In May 1998 listed at $900,000
In Oct 2005 listed at $1,800,000
That's an increase of 2x in 7 years.
131 Blithedale, Mill Valley:
In Sep 1999 listed at $665,000
In Oct 2005 listed at $1,000,000
That's an increase of 1.5x in 6 years.
57 Millside, Mill Valley:
In Aug 1997 listed at $479,000
In Oct 2005 listed at $1,100,000
That's an increase of 2.3x in 8 years.
18 Heuters, Mill Valley:
In Apr 2000 listed at $570,000
In Oct 2005 listed at $1,130,000
That's an increase of 2x in 5 years.
151 California, Mill Valley:
In Mar 1998 listed at $424,000
In Oct 2005 listed at $1,260,000
That's an increase of 3x in 7 years.
401 Eldridge, Mill Valley:
In Sep 1998 listed at $835,000
In Oct 2005 listed at $1,900,000
That's an increase of 2.3x in 7 years.
5 Leona Drive, San Rafael:
In Jul 2000 listed at $800,000
In Oct 2005 listed at $2,000,000
That's an increase of 2.5x in 5 years.
1094 West California, Mill Valley:
In Mar 2005 listed at $1,175,000
In Oct 2005 listed at $1,475,000
That's an increase of 1.3x in 7 months.
I rent in Sausalito and this PoS house down the street has been on the market since June when we moved in. They started out asking 650k and I just saw today that it has been reduced to 500k (a 25% reduction!). Of course they are not admitting to the reduction on the MLS listing. They do however list some other gems...like the property is a bank repo and this is your chance to get that house in Sausalito you always wanted! Yeah right...this place doesn't even have a foundation. You can check it out here:
http://www.fhallen.com/DesktopDefault.aspx?pageid=17&pagealias=Detail&ListingID=1537372&ListingPosition=6
Regarding my list: a couple of the prices listed above reflect major rennovations, but most do not. For those, we're talking about pure appreciation.
As a comparison, how many companies (with actual products), will give you these annual returns on your dollar? But houses just sit there, slowly rotting and needing maintenance, but somehow producing huge annual gains? Shouldn't homebuyers be smart enough to see the core economic issue here?
I don't think I can include attachments here but here is an IJ clipping from about 1999 showing how much it would be to buy a TOWN in Marin in 1918-1919:
Belvedere - 393,655
Corte Madera - 354,680
Larkspur - 573,910
Mill Valley - 1,542,065
Ross - 1,169,440
San Anselmo - 1,555,130
San Rafael - 4,412,365
Sausalito - 1,461,715
MARIN 10,700,000
If only my grandfather had a little more foresight.....
Following the lead of Athena over at the Sonoma Housing Bubble blog (how can I go wrong following in the footsteps of a goddess?), here are the price reduction history and Days on Market (DOM) stats for all of Marin as of today care of ZipRealty:
651 EDGEWOOD AVE, Mill Valley, CA 94941
$567,000 to $549,000 (-3%)
DOM: 24
368 SHORELINE HWY, Mill Valley, CA 94941
$745,000 to $699,900 (-6%)
DOM: 101
76 SPRING RD, Lagunitas, CA 94938
$660,000 to $645,000 (-2.3%)
DOM: 176
16 FRUSTUCK AVE, Fairfax, CA 94930
$679,000 to $667,000 (-1.8%)
DOM: 104
20 HOOPER LN, San Anselmo, CA 94960
$699,000 to $675,000 (-3.4%)
DOM: 43
155 SAN FELIPE WAY, Novato, CA 94945
$719,000 to $695,000 (-3.3%)
DOM: 49
83 CANDELERO AVE, Forest Knolls, CA 94933
$729,000 to $699,000 (-4.1%)
DOM: 134
1051 4TH ST, Novato, CA 94945
$795,000 to $749,000
$749,000 to $719,000 (-9.6%)
DOM: 30
62 LELAND DR, Novato, CA 94947
$739,000 to $719,000 (-2.7%)
DOM: 152
431 CASCADE DR, Fairfax, CA 94930
$739,000 to $719,000 (-2.7%)
DOM: 51
1424 CAMBRIDGE ST, Novato, CA 94947
$749,000 to $735,000
$735,000 to $725,000 (-3.2%)
DOM: 128
6 ARLINGTON CT, Novato, CA 94947
$830,000 to $799,000 (-3.7%)
DOM: 50
19 TRUMAN DR, Novato, CA 94947
$819,000 to $799,000 (-2.4%)
DOM: 44
45 ELENA CIR, San Rafael, CA 94903
$849,000 to $825,000 (-2.8%)
DOM: 108
255 DEVON DR, San Rafael, CA 94903
$869,000 to $848,000 (-2.4%)
DOM: 78
7 LILAC PL, Novato, CA 94949
$869,000 to $849,000 (-2.3%)
DOM: 105
84 CYPRESS AVE, Mill Valley, CA 94941
$899,500 to $865,000 (-3.8%)
DOM: 99
88 MEADOW VALLEY RD, Corte Madera, CA 94925
$899,000 to $875,000 (-2.7%)
DOM: 15
58 SHELLEY DR, Mill Valley, CA 94941
$929,000 to $879,000 (-5.4%)
DOM: 44
54 LAUREL GLEN TER, San Rafael, CA 94903
$949,000 to $919,000
$919,000 to $899,000 (-5.3%)
DOM: 133
364 MOUNTAIN VIEW AVE, San Rafael, CA 94901
$975,000 to $929,000 (-4.7%)
DOM: 50
46 WATERBURY LN, Novato, CA 94949
$969,900 to $950,000 (-2.1%)
DOM: 43
56 BAHAMA REEF, Novato, CA 94949
$999,000 to $974,500 (-2.5%)
DOM: 113
32 ELM AVE, San Anselmo, CA 94960
$1,200,000 to $995,000 (-17.1%)
DOM: 29
2037 LAGUNA VISTA DR, Novato, CA 94945
$1,049,000 to $999,900 (-4.7%)
DOM: 65
310 REDWOOD AVE, Corte Madera, CA 94925
$1,095,000 to $1,019,000 (-6.9%)
DOM: 74
15 DOROTHY WAY, Novato, CA 94945
$1,100,000 to $1,059,000 (-3.7%)
DOM: 169
17 MARINITA AVE, San Rafael, CA 94901
$1,149,000 to $1,099,000 (-4.4%)
DOM: 108
15 MOUNT WHITNEY DR, San Rafael, CA 94903
$1,167,000 to $1,149,000 (-1.5%)
DOM: 40
226 SUNSET WAY, Muir Beach, CA 94965
$1,275,000 to $1,175,000 (-7.8%)
DOM: 152
1370 GRAND AVE, San Rafael, CA 94901
$1,247,000 to $1,179,000 (-5.5%)
DOM: 15
137 WOODWARD AVE, Sausalito, CA 94965
$1,295,000 to $1,245,000 (-3.9%)
DOM: 185
272 MONTEGO KY, Novato, CA 94949
$1,299,000 to $1,250,000 (-3.8%)
DOM: 176
190 BUCHANAN, Sausalito, CA 94965
$1,295,000 to $1,259,000 (-2.8%)
DOM: 46
2398 MAR EAST ST, Tiburon, CA 94920
$1,398,000 to $1,295,000 (-7.4%)
DOM: 131
5 PRESIDIO CT, Corte Madera, CA 94925
$1,395,000 to $1,365,000 (-2.2%)
DOM: 97
291 MORNINGSUN AVE, Mill Valley, CA 94941
$1,458,000 to $1,383,000 (-5.1%)
DOM: 93
22 MIDHILL DR, Mill Valley, CA 94941
$1,495,000 to $1,395,000 (-6.7%)
DOM: 100
108 WINDWALKER WAY, Novato, CA 94945
$1,495,000 to $1,449,000
$1,449,000 to $1,395,000 (-6.7%)
DOM: 79
20 SAINT ANDREWS DR, Novato, CA 94949
$1,550,000 to $1,500,000 (-3.2%)
DOM: 250
20 BROOKSIDE CT, Novato, CA 94947
$1,700,000 to $1,625,000 (-4.4%)
DOM: 137
41 BAYWOOD AVE, Ross, CA 94957
$1,795,000 to $1,695,000 (-5.6%)
DOM: 49
113 WILD HORSE VALLEY RD, Novato, CA 94947
$1,795,000 to $1,699,000 (-5.3%)
DOM: 86
9 STARBUCK, Muir Beach, CA 94965
$1,900,000 to $1,825,000 (-3.9%)
DOM: 245
11 FERN WAY, Kentfield, CA 94904
$1,989,000 to $1,925,000 (-3.2%)
DOM: 99
71 EASTVIEW AVE, Tiburon, CA 94920
$2,195,000 to $1,975,000 (-11%)
DOM: 100
107 STONETREE LN, Novato, CA 94945
$2,055,500 to $2,035,310 (-1%)
DOM: 209
16 OWL RIDGE CT, Novato, CA 94945
$2,295,000 to $2,195,000 (-4.4%)
DOM: 113
571 MCCLAY RD, Novato, CA 94947
$2,499,000 to $2,200,000 (-12%)
DOM: 162
90 UPPER TOYON DR, Kentfield, CA 94904
$2,395,000 to $2,295,000 (-4.2%)
DOM: 106
217 JAMAICA ST, Tiburon, CA 94920
$2,395,000 to $2,295,000 (-4.2%)
DOM: 139
50 TOPSIDE WAY, Mill Valley, CA 94941
$2,495,000 to $2,425,000
$2,425,000 to $2,399,000
$2,399,000 to $2,299,000 (-7.9%)
DOM: 177
83 WOODWARD AVE, Sausalito, CA 94965
$2,845,000 to $2,745,000 (-3.5%)
DOM: 148
20 MARIN BAY PARK CT, San Rafael, CA 94901
$2,985,000 to $2,785,000 (-6.7%)
DOM: 119
100 GOODHILL RD, Kentfield, CA 94904
$3,300,000 to $2,900,000 (-12.1%)
DOM: 163
1896 MOUNTAIN VIEW DR, Tiburon, CA 94920
$3,100,000 to $2,975,000 (-4%)
DOM: 29
14 PLACE MOULIN, Tiburon, CA 94920
$3,795,000 to $3,450,000 (-9.1%)
DOM: 167
1 & 3 RESERVA LANE, Tiburon, CA 94920
$3,990,000 to $3,750,000 (-6%)
DOM: 155
88 WEST SHORE RD, Belvedere, CA 94920
$5,150,000 to $4,895,000 (-5%)
DOM: 337
42 FERNHILL AVE, Ross, CA 94957
$5,395,000 to $4,935,000 (-8.5%)
DOM: 278
81 MCNEAR DR, San Rafael, CA 94901
$5,695,000 to $5,495,000 (-3.5%)
DOM: 195
400 BELLA VISTA AVE, Belvedere, CA 94920
$7,850,000 to $7,499,000 (-4.5%)
DOM: 256
Total units showing reduced prices: 62 (or 17% of the market of SFR between $0 and $10 million)
Average DOM: 115
Max DOM: 337
Average percent price reduction: -4.93%
Max percent price reduction: -17.1%
Here's an update on one of the properties. It was sold in mid 02 for 845k, now listed for 1.2 million. Assuming that prices have remained flat Jan 05 to Jan 06 and based on median price data, the data would argue that the price should be up by 20%, or up to 1.030 million since the 845k sale and I know 200k in improvements have not been made. mmmm, looking for a sucker.....
The fact that houses have sold for less than the original asking price really has nothing to do with the housing market, but is just an indication of the optimism that the seller had.
So if I put my Mill Valley 2400 sq ft house on 14000 sq ft land for $2m, but sold it for just 1.3m, does it mean that I LOST 35% of its value? Hardly.
Just because something is measurable does not mean that it is meaningful.
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