Thursday, October 18, 2007

DataQuick's September, 2007 Results

By now those of you who care already know just how bad the sales results were for Marin for September, 2007 according to DataQuick. If not, you can see their chart here.

And in case you don't appreciate just how anemic sales were this past September, I refer you to the following chart of DataQuick sales data for all Septembers in Marin since the go-go, heady days of 1995:

You can see from the above chart that September sales in Marin peaked in 2003, held steady until 2005, and then fell off a cliff. In fact, sales this past September were the lowest they have ever been since DataQuick started reporting data. And we are only just getting started with this bubble blow-off...

What happened in 1998 you might ask? Good question. I have no idea. That data is missing from DataQuick's site and the WayBack machine didn't have it cached either. So I guess September, 1998 never existed although I seem to distinctly remember it.

What Rob Dawg said:
Another thing for potential sellers to consider. This isn't polite and it isn't easy to hear and it isn't good news. It is almost a sure thing that the buying person and their agent are smarter than you and your sales agent. All the stupid people already have houses. Any stupid people left houseless or just not stupid merely newly in the market to buy are not going to be qualified buyers for a long long time.

These are hard truths. If you as a seller today knew then what you know now you would have sold in Spring '06 right? Okay, you accept that you aren't the smartest guy in the room. Now, anybody who can buy today was certainly able to buy in Spring '06 right? See the problem? The only way you can sell to the people who are buying now is to give them a deal that is homage to their skills.

14 Comments:

Blogger Matthew said...

Thanks for the data as always Marinite.. good stuff and very predictable.. the weighted average on the heat index was probably .36 or so for much of Sept.. I think Oct heat index has hunkered down even more, which is an early indicator of Oct sales..

Oh, to be a fly on the wall during a recent Realtor sales meeting in any office around Marin...

Speaking of sales... here are some excerpts from several radio (RE sales) adds that I've heard this week on the radio driving to/from work.

"Jump aboard before it's too late as interest rates are at historic low levels"... sorry dear, that train track is heading south and at an accelerating pace..

"These are deals of a lifetime".. you bet they are, buy now and you will setting yourself up for a lifetime of regret...

"There has never been a better time to buy real estate than right now"... liar, liar, pants on fire.. hell, even the Treasury Secretary and the Fed Chairman and our own Leslie would have to disagree..

...and, of course, my favorite given the time of year and play on your manhood and all..

"Step up to the plate and buy this weekend"... yea, sounds like a good way to get hit by a fastball right in the noggin if you ask me..

Oct 18, 2007, 10:05:00 PM  
Blogger Matthew said...

Anyone see BB getting boxed in tighter and tighter with the recent rise in CPI and energy, the falling dollar and now the increase in unemployment numbers??

Couple all of this with the recent Treasury Secretary / Wall Steet hokus-pokus with that newly created $100 billion entity to remove rotting assets and clean up the Wall Steet banker's books and we've got ourselves one heck of a show to watch over the next 4-6 months.. not to mention the peak ARMS resets are just around the corner..

Do we have anyone reading who's studying for their masters in economics?? talk about interesting times to be studying in that field..

Oct 18, 2007, 10:23:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...

Do we have anyone reading who's studying for their masters in economics??

Also, I think a psychology dissertation or two could be had from studying FB mentality: mass rationalization and denial, disproportionate mental focus on loss vs. profit, mythological thinking, hearing only what you want to hear, the relation between investing and self-esteem, perceived sexual attractiveness and possession of a mortgage, etc.

Oct 18, 2007, 10:30:00 PM  
Blogger mountainwatcher said...

Thanks for keeping the info coming, Marinite.
I know it is all obvious and logical, but it really helps.

The Rob Dawg quote hits the nail on the head.

The stupid folks aren't able to feed the insanity anymore.
Even the impassioned "gotta get in before it's too late" crowd is being seriously deterred.

The result will be lower prices. Duh.

Thanks. Keep it coming!

Oct 19, 2007, 1:19:00 AM  
Blogger linda said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

Oct 19, 2007, 4:07:00 PM  
Blogger linda said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

Oct 19, 2007, 4:25:00 PM  
Blogger marinite2 said...

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You know, you have to be really desperate to advertise your RE investments on a housing bubble blog. And not just once, but twice?!

Oct 19, 2007, 4:35:00 PM  
Blogger Tickedoff said...

Haha, I am loving Craiglist listings as of late.

Look at this amazing charmer:

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/nby/rfs/453685860.html

So they couldnt sell it for at least $130k more then it was worth, and now its WOW 20% off and over inflated price. How much farther can dinky 1940's eras homes fall? Curious minds want to know.

I might jump on that except this is certainly my last Opportunity to Live in Ignacio Valley and how could I pass that up?
http://sfbay.craigslist.org/nby/rfs/453663062.html

I mean honestly I didnt realize there was a moratorium on selling homes there.

Between postings like these and the ones trying to convince me that buying a house boat for $600k is a good investment, I am enjoying craigslist more and more each day. :)

Oct 19, 2007, 5:43:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...

tickedoff,

Say hello to the stupid Marinites. The ones who drank deeply of the koolaid. They get the fate they deserve.

BTW, that Novato house has been trying to sell for a very long time.

Oct 19, 2007, 5:58:00 PM  
Blogger Lisa said...

Since I'm renting now, I keep tabs on the Craigslist rentals in the North Bay. I am noticing there is A LOT for rent in Petaluma and Santa Rosa, and I mean, A LOT. I'm guessing these are FB's who couldn't sell their alligator?

And what a lovely day for the stock market this was! Another nail in the confidence coffin.

Just wait for the November & December sales figures, when folks start to wake up to the fact that the "credit crunch" was not a one month event.

Oct 19, 2007, 6:09:00 PM  
Blogger mountainwatcher said...

I'm wondering about the Zillow estimates.

They look pretty high to me.

Do they take the current market stats in to consideration?

Does anyone know how they calculate prices?

Oct 20, 2007, 1:18:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

I am noticing there is A LOT for rent in Petaluma and Santa Rosa, and I mean, A LOT. I'm guessing these are FB's who couldn't sell their alligator?

I am noticing quite a bit more "For Sale" signs changing to "For Lease" signs in Mill Valley. Especially for the POSs that have not been able to sell for near-peak bubble prices.

Nothing says "Failed Flipper" like a "For Lease" sign. Might as well tattoo it on your forehead.

I wonder if that will be the trend -- can't sell your devalued Marin crap, so try to lease it.

Oct 20, 2007, 11:18:00 AM  
Blogger marin_explorer said...

"...can't sell your devalued Marin crap, so try to lease it."

...while scrimping on maintenance, so the property continues down a path of neglect and decay. Then, after years of stellar (mis)management, you decide to sell your "nest-egg", yet mysteriously nobody wants to take that albatross off your hands. Go figure.

I've seen small Canadian fishing towns with better upkeep and infrastructure than many nabes of glorious Marin--N or S, it doesn't seem to matter. In the least, don't expect to get millions for your home if you don't treat it well.

Oct 20, 2007, 5:48:00 PM  
Blogger mountainwatcher said...

Sorry to bump this, but I'm wondering about the Zillow price estimates for Marin.

A lot of folks think this is an accurate way to check the value of a property.

I think the Zillow estimates are really tilted to the high side.

Is Zillow just more RE industry spin?

Sorry if this is off topic, I just had some friends bragging about their Zestimate and I was dubious.

Oct 21, 2007, 12:38:00 AM  

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