I thought you might be interested in the attached map showing the foreclosure activity near Marin. The data comes from ForeclosureRadar, a fee based service. There are over 300 foreclosures in all of Marin County, and 200 (the most the service will show at once, they are reporting 212) on the attached map.
Red pins are bank owned homes.
Blue pines are auction homes.
Green pins are in default.
6 comments:
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Why the interest and "glee" at seeing people being foreclosed on? Generally, the result of higher than usual foreclosures is a tightening of lending ... and hence higher buying costs for everyone.
I think the point of this isn't to be gleeful about what is happening, but to show that the foreclosure problem is deeper than what is being generally reported. The talking point we keep hearing that it isn't that bad in Marin and that Marin is somehow sheltered from the decline to come. You look at the map and it says a different story and we are only beginning to see the fallout.
Eventually, prices will have to come down due to a glut on the market of homes and the realization people are simply unable to afford boom pricing. The rich will always be able to afford the luxury market, but the rest of the market has to come down to what people are able to pay.
Why the interest and "glee"...?
If I have any glee, I think it's directed at seeing this market normalize. Despite that fleeting sense of "equity wealth" and the leverage it provided for "lifestyle enhancement", this insane ramping of prices does not benefit society. So, I'm more than happy to see things take their due course.
Does anyone wonder what Bay Area life would be like today if we didn't experience two bubble markets back-to-back? There would have been a tech recession running into the mid 90s, with a gradual (normal) recovery, and quite likely fewer pressures on local living costs. The dot-bomb pressure on rents would have never happened, and a typical Silicon Valley 4BR/3BA suburb home, with a non-bubble "value" of $325K in '99, would modestly appreciate to around $450K in '07. Yet, today comps in that segment hover around $1.2M.
It's easy to compare, say a 7% 30-year on $450K vs. $1.2M at whatever LTV you choose.
Obviously this fiasco was abetted by a loosening of credit--where tightening is now the cure.
An interesting Google Maps plot. While it's hard to discern the density for individual towns, I see distressed housing spread across the county.
but to show that the foreclosure problem is deeper than what is being generally reported
How does this chart purport to show that? This chart is entirely useless as it has no context whatsoever. Who's to say that this map doesn't show that the current situation for lates, forclosures and auctions are lower than the past (I pretty sure its not but you can't tell from this chart)...
I suppose if someone were misinformed enough to think that Marin never had people go late on mortgages or end up in forclosure this chart might be useful in disabusing him or her of that notion - but as a measure of severity this chart is useless.
The graphic or map shows just a portion of foreclosures that are actually out there and if you compare this with news accounts and the map indicates a higher than reported number of foreclosures.
I too doubt that the number of foreclosures has been higher in recent times, because we have circumstances now that set the stage for foreclosures that hadn't occurred in the past.
I don't see this map in isolation. We still have the media and the real estate folk making light of what is happening and saying Marin is somehow different. They are still calling people who are questioning the Marin market as doom and gloomers. So it isn't that people are misinformed, it is that people are actively misinforming the public.
300 foreclosures in a very small and affluent county is significant, don't you think? 300 foreclosures when there is evidence that we have not even seen the spike of resets.
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