Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Price Decline from Peak

I found the following graphic over on Mish's blog. Please check it out for the whole story.

A -44.55% decline from the peak in single family residence prices in the San Francisco Bay area in just 18 months! Anathema!

7 Comments:

Blogger Marinite said...

We "Marinfidels" should run for cover.

Dec 31, 2008, 3:18:00 PM  
Blogger Matthew said...

Oh the horror.. say it ain't so, Marinite !!

Not done yet either.. 1999-2000 prices here we come...

Why you ask? Because, that's what the math says and that would be in keeping with the laws of basic economics, that's why...

Happy New Year everyone..

2009 will be no pic-nic for the RE machine... probably a slower bleed than 2008 was though, but it will continue to bleed as there is still more hot air in the bubble... that's right, more housing price corrections to come for sure, including here in Marin (gasp!)..

Anyone who sees this ongoing correction as a bad thing has their head firmly up their a__, by the way...

Jan 1, 2009, 1:24:00 PM  
Blogger Lisa said...

"Not done yet either.. 1999-2000 prices here we come..."

Matthew, I so hope you're right! I'd love to buy another house in the North Bay, but can't justify giving up my lovely rental to double my housing cost in order to "own".

I do think once people grasp that houses are NOT the goose that laid the golden egg, nor do they come with an ATM next to the dishwasher, that there will be less willingness to allocate huge percentages of one's income in order to "own" versus rent. And if conventional lending standards are here to stay for the foreseeable future, few buyers will qualify until prices are back in line with local incomes.

Jan 1, 2009, 4:31:00 PM  
Blogger HHB said...

Definitely more to come. Take a look at what the futures are saying on the San Francisco Case-Shiller Index:

http://healdsburgbubble.blogspot.com/2008/12/what-will-our-600k-house-be-worth-in.html

Jan 2, 2009, 9:07:00 AM  
Blogger marin_explorer said...

I remember Healdsburg during the peak...the RE euphoria was thick there too, especially around the square.

"1999-2000 prices here we come..."

Easily. Then again--prices were pushed up already by the now-defunct dot-coms pulling in workers to SF--another hidden market weakness. Where liquidity is going, so our lauded economy will follow.

Did anyone see those NAR ads during the Rose Bowl events, chiding cautious would-be home buyers? Desperate and ironic.

Jan 2, 2009, 9:42:00 AM  
Blogger Lisa said...

"1999-2000 prices here we come..."

"Easily. Then again--prices were pushed up already by the now-defunct dot-coms pulling in workers to SF--another hidden market weakness. Where liquidity is going, so our lauded economy will follow."

I bought in '96 and my house was pretty flat until around '99. Then it was off to the races thanks to the dot.com bubble. "Normal" buyers were losing out to tech workers with stock option gains who suddenly had all this money. Then in 2001, after the NASDAQ crash and 9/11, the flood gates opened on voodoo lending, so the party continued.

Marinite, you are absolutely right. Prices were artificially high even by 1999/2000. If we are really back to wages having to support loan qualifications, we may well push through those levels.

I certainly hope so! I refuse to carry some ridiculous mortgage that will take 30 years to pay off. I don't want to be working when I'm 70.

Jan 2, 2009, 6:20:00 PM  
Blogger see me said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

Jan 9, 2009, 8:42:00 AM  

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