Friday, November 25, 2005

Winding Down to Take a Bath

Here's some advice from our cheerleading friends:

"Now even [David] Lereah [chief economist for the National Association of Realtors] agrees the boom is well past its peak. It's now “winding down into an expansion,'' he says."

Heh! "Winding down into an expansion". Another great Lereah euphemism. Just a few months ago he was screaming that there were no bubbles.

"But this much seems certain: Sellers and buyers in the coming months will need to change their assumptions and strategies from what they've been for the last three heady years."

Advice to sellers: "There may not be enough buyers to cut the glut for years. So if you absolutely have to sell, prepare to take a bath. If you don't have to sell, keep it off the market. And keep looking for tenants who'll reduce your red ink during the down cycle."

Advice to buyers: "Down cycles can produce your best opportunities in a decade. But bear in mind that many sellers you encounter will be in denial about pricing. They will refuse to believe that they cannot get what their neighbors got for their less-attractive house across the street in the spring of 2005... Walk away from everything but the most soberly priced deals. After all, you can't know for sure when the cycle will hit bottom."

So, “winding down into an expansion" means "if you absolutely have to sell, prepare to take a bath" and renting for less than you need to stop the bleeding.

Sage advice: be patient. All good things come to those who wait.

3 Comments:

Blogger Roy G Biv said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

Nov 26, 2005, 7:07:00 AM  
Blogger David said...

Lereah is a cheerleading b*stard. He should get some colorful pom poms.

Either he is mixing the kool aid or drinking the kool aid.

Nov 26, 2005, 10:28:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Drug dealers are supposed to know not to take their own stuff. Financial advisers are the same way. During the NASDAQ bubble brokers were pimping stocks like crazy even when the time came to sell some of it off. They sold but told the public to hold.

So I would say DL is mixing

Nov 27, 2005, 10:00:00 AM  

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