Monday, October 09, 2006

How Low Can It Go?

The Marin HEAT Index seems to make a new all time low every week or so; it begs the making of a wager. How low will it go? Where will the Index be by, say, Thanksgiving, 2006?


Update: Here is the historical data for the HEAT Index to help you with your best guess:

11 Comments:

Blogger Marinite said...

I forgot to allow choices that are higher than where the Index is currently at. So if you are optimistic and want to vote for something higher, I guess you will have to use the comment section to place your bets.

Oct 9, 2006, 8:37:00 PM  
Anonymous paper reader said...

I'm not optimistic about the heat.
Winter will bring many chills.

I'm not understanding why some major news outlet is not screaming about this outrage.

Big money mortgage/RE industry is bankrupting millions of Americans by selling bad faith loans.

House prices are so artificially inflated, that for many, the only way to buy is with a POS loan.

Hey Marin "Independent" Journal.

How about some balls?

How about some truth?

Journalistic integrity?

Oct 10, 2006, 1:12:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Where was the heat index 11/1/05?

Oct 10, 2006, 3:49:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I check the listings in my area just about every day and am seeing lots of price reductions. They're not always really obvious about it though. Trying to keep up appearances I suppose. But the reductions are there. For example, one property in my search (MLS 20632151) was quietly reduced by $100K yesterday, going from 799 to 699K in one keystroke. Still too much, but we're headed in the right direction. I expect the index to keep dropping for some time.

Oct 10, 2006, 6:59:00 AM  
Blogger Lisa said...

I live in San Anselmo and there's a cute 2 bdrm/1 bath cottage that just went on the market for $825K. Unbelievable. Too small to be a trade up home, so it's for a single person/couple/couple with one baby. Complete insanity. How can people think prices will go up from here??

Oct 10, 2006, 10:23:00 AM  
Blogger marin_explorer said...

Lisa,
That's funny because there was 2/1 (complete remodel) last Fall at roughly the same price--but right on SFD. I believe it went through months of piddling reductions to get under $700K, then perhaps it sold. I'm sure these sellers face a similar (or worse) scenario now.

Oct 10, 2006, 10:39:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

I'm not understanding why some major news outlet is not screaming about this outrage.

Because too many people are (were) making a profit. When people are making money that's when you find what their real ethics are.

Oct 10, 2006, 10:55:00 AM  
Blogger Rob Dawg said...

Lisa,
Think about the "newly married or recently married one child" segment and tell me they arten't planning to squeeze out a few more kids. There's no more trading up for them. Their next home purchase will be the one with good high schools and enough room to raise a family. "Baby" will be in kindergarten in 4 years.

These types of houses are no longer acceptable to the upwardly mobile or growing family segments.

Oct 10, 2006, 11:00:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

Where was the heat index 11/1/05?

The Index was at 0.79 November, 2005. You can get the historical data here:

http://tinyurl.com/k56hf

Oct 10, 2006, 11:02:00 AM  
Blogger sf jack said...

I like the last chart, with the historical figures.

It's especially telling that the reading appears to be very close to being the same, in each of those years, during one week in late August or early September.

But, of course, not this year.

In Year One of the deflating bubble years.

Oct 10, 2006, 1:40:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Watch out for the 10-year yield. It is going up and might go up a lot higher. This would determine the RE industry's final fate.

Oct 13, 2006, 10:15:00 AM  

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