Thursday, October 05, 2006

New All Time Low for the HEAT Index

A new all time low for the Marin HEAT Index:

That agent's discussion has not changed since the last time I posted it but I like how he now underlines the word "if" in the following advice to buyers:
They [buyers] have lots of choices, and they have a lot of bargaining power. They almost always do well if they buy to hold.
"...if they buy to hold..." I can't argue with that. If you plan to hold for 10 years or more, then sure, you will do fine, at least nominally.

15 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

what are your thoughts on the sfgate article about prices in Marin not dropping?
http://tinyurl.com/r4tgj

Oct 5, 2006, 10:07:00 PM  
Anonymous reynolds said...

The fundamentals always rule.

It may take time and lots of slow realization, but reality will come to realty.

The Bay Area will settle down.

The quake you fear will spill your beer.

Balance will rebalance the imbalance.

If you are not in, DON'T BUY IN NOW!

Oct 6, 2006, 1:24:00 AM  
Blogger Lisa said...

Who wants to be mortgaged to the gills for 3% appreciation? It doesn't cover cost of annual ownership and the 5% or 6% you lose in commission when you sell. You'd be better off parking money in CD's for 5% until prices come down.

Remember NASDAQ 2000? All we heard about was how this time was different, blah, blah. It wasn't. Lesson learned, or should have been learned.

Oct 6, 2006, 8:18:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

" what are your thoughts on the sfgate article about prices in Marin not dropping"

Yeah, marin is special. everywhere else is screwed, but we here in marin are immune. Same old "it's different here" and "there's a shortage of land" crap we've always heard and that most every other place hears too.

Oct 6, 2006, 8:27:00 AM  
Blogger marin_explorer said...

"...prices in Marin not dropping?"

Following the mls, I've noticed some deep reductions over last fall, and about 45% of Marin homes are reduced to some degree, per Marinite's graph in an earlier thread. I think the current heat index shows where the market is going. Spring 07 will bring more reductions (and a bit of panic).

Oct 6, 2006, 8:52:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

what are your thoughts on the sfgate article

You mean me? What do I think?

Well, more wishful thinking during this period of anxiety. More feel-good platitudes. After all, as Lereah has recently stated, for most people their house is their retirement because they were too short-sighted to save their money and chose to believe in the free lunch concept..."These are people’s homes. Their retirement is depending on it" says Lereah. (Pretty sad when you think about it.) So people are going to believe whatever they want to believe and claim whatever is in their best self-interest.

The Chronicle's publication record on this topic has been all over the place from shamelessly bullish to dismally bearish. As far as I am concerned they are no more credible than the Marin IJ which for me is the lowest of the low in journalistic standards.

But without actually forking over the nearly $4000 for the Moody's report it's hard to say what, if anything, they actually said about Marin.

At this point I see no reason to try and argue one way or the other anymore. Those who want to believe whatever makes them feel good will believe that. I just think the MSM should have been publishing words of caution instead of shamelessly cheerleading and pimping for the real estate industry. That's why bubble blogs were born -- as a reaction against shameless and self-interested propaganda.

But what is going on in Marin's market right now and over the last few months tells a different story altogether from what the Chronicle would have you believe. So believe what you want, put your head under your blanket. I don't care anymore.

Oct 6, 2006, 9:12:00 AM  
Anonymous SF Mechanist said...

I've never ever seen an article on sfgate.com that described the real estate market as bearish, though I haven't gone there for several months now (except occasionally when somebody posts a link). The last time I went there, there was one of those stupid polls which asked: "What do you mainly use blogs for?" The last cutesy answer was "E. Nothing, stupidest form of communication since paper cups and string." And like 80% or so of people had picked that one. So you know what kind of retards still read that drivel. Since I saw that poll, I've never gone back. Obviously we know choice "E" was false because paper cups and string run circles around the SF Chronicle.

Haven't picked up the paper itself for probably over three years. The quality of real estate reporting is just to woefully misguided, and other than movie reviews by Mick LaSalle which I think are pretty good, the whole rest of the paper is fortunately recyclable so something useful like toilet paper might one day eventually come of it.

But I agree, with the last sentiment above. People will believe what they want at this point. They will cling to whatever statement no matter how illigical or unsubstantiated support their desperate beliefs. In the end, given the present day manipulation of our economy by those in power, there is nobody outside the loop who can say for sure how this is all going to turn out-- except that a return to economic equilibrium will eventually happen, one way or another.

Oct 6, 2006, 5:33:00 PM  
Anonymous reynolds said...

I was at a POS open house last weekend.

A local Marin RE agent told me that she is pushing harder for exotic loans for her clients.
"Even a negative amortization on a no money down will get them into their dream home, and that's what I'm all about"
She said this as if she was doing them a favor.
As if she was really helping them.

I mentioned the possible consequences and she looked at me like I was crazy.
"You don't understand Marin real estate do you"

I replied, " No I guess I don't" and walked away.

Oct 7, 2006, 12:38:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"A local Marin RE agent told me that she is pushing harder for exotic loans for her clients"

You must be mistaken. Haven't you been listening to the Marin RE bulls here? People in Marin don't buy using exotic loans.

Bah!

Oct 7, 2006, 10:52:00 AM  
Blogger sf jack said...

It's the Marin Market COLD Index(tm).

Getting COLDER all the time!

Oct 8, 2006, 11:20:00 AM  
Blogger sf jack said...

"What are your thoughts on the sfgate article about prices in Marin not dropping?"

******

Hmmm.... my thoughts are that there were lifeboats on the Titanic, too.

Beside the analogous thought that people need "something to cling on to - for hope"...

I think that perhaps some places in Marin may not see much for nominal declines over the next five to seven years, but many more others in the county will.

Would I like to pay double my rent today for a **itbox going down in value, where a nicer, larger place may cost a smaller "premium" on a monthly basis in five years?

Patience will be rewarded.

Oct 8, 2006, 11:31:00 AM  
Anonymous reynolds said...

Thanks sf jack.

I concur.

Waiting is a virtue.

This is a stupid time to buy.

This is no longer an American dream.

Oct 9, 2006, 2:06:00 AM  
Blogger marinmaven said...

I have been watching a house across the street where I live in Marinwood. It sold in 2005, for $730,000. They fixed it up nicely and put it on the market this summer for $899k. Then after a month they reduced it to $864k, and just last week they reduced it further to $824k. How low will it go? I have no idea.

Oct 9, 2006, 3:55:00 PM  
Blogger marinmaven said...

http://realestate.sfgate.com/RealEstate/Sales/Listing.asp?lid=105-32448&source=tophomes

zillow:
Sale History
05/06/2005: $720,000
12/05/1997: $139,000
MLS Number: 20628394
URL: http://www.pacunion.com/20628394

Oct 9, 2006, 4:07:00 PM  
Blogger marinmaven said...

I was cleaning up and found a advertising card from Lori Saia Odisio from Frank Howard Allen Realtors. The listing is 609 Blackstone that was going for $1,529,000. It is now going for 1,479,000 for a reduction of 50k. Looking at Zillow you get the 2005 tax info and the circa 1990 house valued by the county 848,822 and sold in 1998 for $741,000.

Oct 12, 2006, 1:48:00 PM  

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