Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Case-Shiller Index for May, 2008

Here's the latest on the Case-Shiller Index.

Line up all those lying real estate "economists", realtors, and agents who said it couldn't happen here, it's different this time, a permanently high plateau, etc., and just cover them in tar and feathers and parade them around their neighborhoods (metaphorically speaking, of course). All they managed to do was to line their pockets with another 6% and screw a lot of people.


Blogger Lisa said...

Welcome back Marinite!

Yep, the SF Chronicle ran a big front page headline today: "The Plunge in the Price of Homes Gets Worse." That ought to scare a few more buyers out of the market -); The local articles definitely seem to be getting more bearish, but it's hard to tell if it's really sunk in yet.

I drove around the west side of Petaluma over the weekend, looking at a few small houses I've been tracking on ZipRealty. Most of them had been purchased after 2003, and most of them were taking a bath....and I mean $100K, $200K less than the last purchase according to Zip. I think 2009 will only be worse as AltA and PayOption ARMS kick in. I think price declines next year will be steep, as fewer & fewer buyers qualify for mortgages at higher rates & tighter standards.

Welcome back again, and thanks for the new post!!!

Jul 30, 2008, 4:46:00 PM  
Blogger Unknown said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

Jul 30, 2008, 6:07:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...

Anyone have a Marin Heat Index account? I want to see how pitiful the Index is now. The free sign-up thing does not seem to work at the moment and the original free account I made for myself no longer works as well.

Jul 30, 2008, 9:03:00 PM  
Blogger Matthew said...

Back in town after being out of country for a while and I see things are playing out pretty much as expected... Actually, in some ways, it is playing out worse than expected...

I recall getting a few lectures on this blog about all that I didn't know regarding "real estate"... something about me and all the other bloggers on here having our heads up our back sides and that raw land and commercial real estate would not be affected by this massive fraud bubble..

Yea, right, to whomever you were pal.. I hope you put your money
where your mouth was about 18 months ago and bought a few plots and office buildings around here or wherever... I, on the other hand, shorted Redwood Trust..

I see there are lots of dazed and confused people running around nowadays.. from my perspective, there is nothing to be confused about when you look under the rug and study what happened during the bubble and why home prices went through the roof... remove those false and fradulent inflators, as is being done everyhwere (including here in Marin) and you are left a market that cannot stand on it's own feet and will crash back down to reality..

All the CAR/NAR BS bottom predictions, Wall Street hype, Fed minutes / briefs, Congressional testimonies etc etc are a bunch of hot air unless they include the fact that this thing will continue to unwind until the relationship between wages, home prices & rents returns to historic normalacy..

and, we ain't there... not even close.. including and especially here in Marin..

Aug 2, 2008, 7:31:00 AM  
Blogger Matthew said...

Did a quick data search on pending foreclosures in Novato area on Realtytrac and see we've past the 500 home number some months ago and are at 583 at present (or thereabouts).. I know the software doesn't capture them all or capture all the individual hell that is going on in each of those homes, but that same data search resulted about 300 homes less than 4 months ago...

"we've reached a bottom" my a__..

Aug 2, 2008, 7:46:00 AM  
Blogger Matthew said...

Marinite.. I think the software & algorithm behind the "Marin Heat Index" is being rewritten as we speak..

New index will be called the "Marin Misery Index", and will include other such factors as (1) Days since last offer on your overpriced Marin POS, (2) Months behind the average Marin SUV loan payment, (3) Days since last Marin house warming party attended, (4) Number of arguments with Marin spouse over money this past month, and, of course, (5) Number of licensed Marin Realtors working minimum wage jobs...

it should be a goodie..

Aug 2, 2008, 7:58:00 AM  
Blogger sf jack said...

"(5) Number of licensed Marin Realtors working minimum wage jobs... "



And a hearty one at that...

I noticed some stats from June showed just more than 200 houses sold in Marin during the month.

I figure that's somewhere less than 7 per day.

Can the more than 2,000 Used House Salespersons in Marin survive on that?

Also, just yesterday, an acquaintance described a former mortgage peddler, now out of work, as looking for a job in a Marin bike shop this past week.

Aug 2, 2008, 11:52:00 AM  
Blogger marine_explorer said...

The latest trends make the early 90s recession appear as a mere blip. I think we're seeing the crash unfold, like ripples in a pond. RE->Banking sector->rest of economy.

Aug 2, 2008, 1:42:00 PM  
Blogger Lisa said...

"I noticed some stats from June showed just more than 200 houses sold in Marin during the month."

Also as of June, there were almost 700 houses "in some stage of default" in Marin.

The numbers aren't pretty. If the pace continues (or accelerates), "distressed" sellers will drive the market down fast & furious. 2008 is starting to get ugly here, but I think 2009 will be the real blood bath.

Aug 2, 2008, 3:36:00 PM  
Blogger mountainwatcher said...

Home loans are really hard to get now.
It seems you need at least 20% down and actual income verification.

This is already putting a big chill on Marin sales.

Many potential buyers can't qualify.

The buyers that do qualify are wondering if this is a good investment.

The times they are a changing.

Aug 3, 2008, 1:03:00 AM  
Blogger Matthew said...

I agree on the remainder of 2008 and 2009 being a housing bloodbath... how much of the CA economy is based on real estate and government ?

When looking at this a few years ago, I thought we'd see at least one of the big 3-4 bubble states (CA, FL, NV, NY) actually declare or be on the brink of bankruptcy... I don't know how the others are doing in comparison, but $14-15B short here in CA (~ 30% of the tax base in fact) is going to cause lots more pain in the RE market all over the state as this thing filters down to the local level with layoffs and more plunging in consumer confidence..

Aug 3, 2008, 7:06:00 AM  
Blogger Matthew said...


Interesting article on state budget deficits.. CA's $15-16B shortfall is only 15 percent of the base and not 30 percent as I had read in another article.. regardless, it's a huge problem for the state and a huge problem for the housing market whether Leslie Appleton-Young and any of the other CAR/NAR pundits (aka fraudsters) admit to it or not..

Aug 3, 2008, 7:28:00 AM  
Blogger Matthew said...

A few tidbits..

Nevada's shortfall is 21 percent of their tax base... oops..

Arizona's shortage is 19% of their base... another oops.

NY's state taxes from the banking sector have plunged by 97% forcing an emergency state budget meeting.. yikes..

And these losses don't yet factor in stockmarket write downs to the average state tax payer's base after the Dow plunged earlier in the year... another yikes..

Of course, all of this is very postive for the housing market..

Aug 3, 2008, 7:34:00 AM  
Blogger Lisa said...

"Home loans are really hard to get now.
It seems you need at least 20% down and actual income verification."

The horror! I laughed when the local MSM cheered that the GSE's had raised their loan limits to $700K for the Bay Area, like that was sure to save us. I emailed one of the SF Chronicle's reporters that I thought it would be the nail in the coffin for us, that most folks would never qualify for those loan amounts based on income, debt ratios, savings, no CC debt, etc.

People just aren't putting 2 and 2 together yet. Take away voodoo financing and no lending standards, and there's nothing to prop up this market.

Aug 3, 2008, 8:09:00 AM  
Blogger Matthew said...

I was initially furious over the raising of the GSE limits to over $700K earlier, but I've since adopted an "I don't a rat's a__" about all of this... there is so much double talk and lies about anything to do with mortgages, real estate and the housing market in general that it could easily drive one to drink.. so, I try my best to not think about it too much..

I read a very accurate observation that both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have had the exact opposite affect on the housing market that they were suppose to make more affordable for the lot of us... thanks largely to the fraud and false inflators that they helped create (along w/boatload of other crooks), it's now much less affordable than ever and the raising of the limit only makes the problem worse..

Now, that's a terrific government program if I ever saw one..

I would have voted to lower the GSE limit down to a historic wage based amount... of course, doing that that would have sent the wrong message to kingpin crooks on Wall Street...

Aug 3, 2008, 10:25:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

there is so much double talk and lies about anything to do with mortgages, real estate and the housing market in general that it could easily drive one to drink.. so, I try my best to not think about it too much..

That pretty much sums up my state of mind with all things housing, and most especially our local housing snobs.

Aug 3, 2008, 10:30:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

...it's now much less affordable than ever and the raising of the limit only makes the problem worse...

How so? Will you elaborate?

Aug 3, 2008, 10:32:00 AM  
Blogger Lisa said...

...it's now much less affordable than ever and the raising of the limit only makes the problem worse...

Honestly, I think raising the GSE loan limits will end up having the opposite effect than what was intended (i.e. propping up home prices in expensive markets).

Think about it. There's probably no such thing anymore as a non-conforming jumbo loan up to $729K. This means everyone wanting to buy up to this price point actually has to QUALIFY. Down payment. Debt to income ratios (which are the killer for most). Fully documented income. The works.

And even though a 3.5% down payment will get you into a FHA loan, you still have to qualify to carry 96.5% of the purchase price + interest.

We all know the vast majority of folks simply don't have the income to pay bubble prices with more conventional lending metrics.

Aug 3, 2008, 3:22:00 PM  
Blogger Matthew said...

okay, let me elaborate Marinite..

Raising the GSE limit to $700K provides too much unnecessary liquidity to the housing market... $700K (!!) .. give me a break.. it also serves to validate the false inflators and fraud that went on the last 8 or so years in the market.. remove all that fraud and false inflators and Barney Frank, Dodd and all the other Congressional clowns wouldn't be looking to raise the GSE limits to $700K... $400K would be just fine.. that limit was fine before the hype and fraud, so it should be fine after it is all unraveled...

So, I definitely see this as an inflationary move by Congress in a failed attempt to prop up housing prices... that's the primary purpose of this move by the way.... the other purpose of raising the GSE limits was to provide liquidity in the secondary mortgage market so Wall Street could still make a few bucks depsite all the unraveling going on.... I see that as the secondary reason however... primary purpose was to prop up housing prices despite what the pundits say on their little news clips..

Aug 4, 2008, 1:20:00 AM  
Blogger susan said...

Does anyone know the formula for the Marin Heat Index? I recall that it looked at the active count, sales over the past 30 days, and the pending count - not sure what else. The July sales count for Marin was 230 units and the current active count (Active only - not under contingent contract or pending) stands at 1,130. This implies 4.8 months of supply. I always thought that months of supply was a simpler and better measure than the MHI. The pending count is at 95. We can back into the MHI if someone knows the formula.

Aug 4, 2008, 1:19:00 PM  

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