According to
DataQuick, Marin prices were down -25% year-over-year in August; 13.5% of sales in Marin were foreclosures. Sheesh! Alt-A and Prime resets haven't even started yet.
"Mortgage money for homes above the half-million-dollar mark is hard to come by right now, even for well-qualified buyers..." said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
The use of so-called jumbo mortgages, until recently defined as over $417,000, has plummeted since the credit crunch hit in August 2007, making jumbo loans more expensive and harder to obtain.
The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying was $2,121 last month, down from $2,218 the previous month, and down from $3,171 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are 18.5 percent below typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle.
Foreclosure activity is at record levels, financing with adjustable-rate mortgages is near the all-time low, as is financing with multiple mortgages.
And if bailing out incompetence and failure right and left (at taxpayer expense) isn't enough of a show for you, well how about Paulson's
latest grand scheme to set up an entity to buy all that toxic paper from the current bag holders at the lowest bidding price? Don't want to mark to market? We'll let you do it to each other! Since that cannot really be allowed to happen, because, you know, everyone has to be a winner and our rickety system cannot tolerate losses of any kind, you know there is going to be a lot of behind-the-scenes monkeying around. I can't wait.
12 comments:
Pelosi, Paulson and BB made brief statements after their "emergency" meeting. There wasn't a single mention of the housing market...it was all about stabilizing Wall Street and people's investments, retirement money, etc.
Okay, so Paulson's new RTC takes on the toxic paper from the mortgage debacle. There's still no secondary market for bad loans going forward, so I still don't see how there's any realistic chance for this to re-inflate the housing market.
New loans will continue to adhere to stricter, more conventional standards. Unemployment will continue to rise. More and more current homeowners will be unable to re-finance their bloated bubble mortgage. New buyers will find it harder and harder to save for that down payment given so many households are servicing record levels of CC debt, auto loans, student loans, etc, and we've got rampant inflation.
I just don't see how this helps housing at all. Which is a good thing in my book...I want to buy again in 2010, but at a price that makes some economic sense versus renting.
"...in August; 13.5% of sales in Marin were foreclosures"
So I guess a few geniuses attended a "flip that foreclosure" seminar? Don't you worry...there will be multiple bids next spring.
All of us who'd rather own (and my guess there are a few on this site) at prices that make sense are probaby rejoicing somewhat at recent Dataquick info. Wall and Montgomery Street layoffs will only exacerbate weakness in areas like South Marin, etc. over the next few months - this will continue to depress median home prices in the area.
Let's not get carried away with statements like "rampant inflation", however. Anecdotal evidence is fine but it doesn't support all the facts. We currently likely have as many deflationary pressures as inflationary ones.
Jay, by rampant inflation, I'm referring to the basics that take up a good chunk of the typical household budget: groceries, gas, healthcare.
I agree we're looking at overall deflation - declining asset prices but the cost of goods & services going up.
My point was how difficult it is for folks to save these days, just when down payments are again becoming the norm.
I agree with your analysis Lisa... Although these latest moves by the Fed and now Congress chap me to no end, I don't see them as re-inflating the housing bubble or even stablizing it given the real status of the debt markets..
I suspect the GS boyz had something to do with this latest move given Paulson's affiliation... it's okay for Bear Sterns, Lehman Bros and Merrill or even Morgan Stanley to go under, but Goldman Sachs is the big cheese and was under significant pressure, so hence the legislative move by Congress..
On the "inflationary" note... the way I see it, there was already rampant, runaway inflation during the bubble, so the damage is done.... hell, that's why the debt markets have frozen up and the Fed had to pump a $T into markets to prevent a complete meltdown.. too many loans and leveraged bets made against grossly inflated assets... so, of course we'll see some deflationary pressures now, esp in housing.. still have another 20-25% to go (easily) before this one is done, including here in Marin...
With all the bailout talk on CNBC, PBS, NYT, etc., there's basically no mention of re-inflating the housing bubble as a result of Paulson's plan. And it sounds like lending standards aren't easing up anytime soon, so the buying pool will continue to shrink as employment goes up and people dedicate large amounts of their income just to cover the basics.
Bottom line, you cannot sustain bubble prices with conventional lending.
Sorry, meant as "unemployment" goes up in my previous post.
Below posting copied in it's entirety from Ben's blog...
Median prices for houses and condos, used and new
(8/08, 8/07, %chg)
San Francisco $725, $822, -11.8%
San Mateo $632, $788, -19.8%
Alameda $440, $619, -28.9%
Marin $675, $899.5, -25% (*)
Santa Clara $632, $788, -20.6%
Napa $453.5, $597.5, -24.1%
Sonoma $350, $505, -30.7%
Contra Costa $330, $570, -42.1%
Solano $270, $420, -35.7%
Bay Area overall $447, $655, -31.8%
(*) “It’s God’s country, what can I say,” Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, told an audience of agents Tuesday in Terra Linda. “When is the 30 percent decline in Marin County’s market going to
What an arrogant POS that woman is... sorry, that's all that comes to my mind when I re-read her comment above to the Marin Realtors Assn as this bubble was bursting.. I do believe some people believed her which probably contibuted to a few dozen more families ruining their financial futures on Marin real estate...
I also believe we've passed the 30%correction mark already from the peak prices... a few lurkers on here had a little tizzy when a few of us indicated that we'd see at least that much of a correction..... oh yes, we're not done yet..
(*) “It’s God’s country, what can I say,” Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, told an audience of agents Tuesday in Terra Linda. “When is the 30 percent decline in Marin County’s market going to happen? Not in my lifetime.” - Hopefully that means she is near her expiration date!
ooops... above was Leslie's entire comment... priceless ... just as her every word is...
Real Estate Sales, Mortgage Lending and Investment Banking...
Talk about morally sound, positive, inspiring and uplifting businesses...
Take all the Joe's and Jane's associated with these businesses, give them some warm clothes and food, and sail them to Antarctica and let them fight over that real estate.. That, my friends, would do more for the moral fiber, education and future of our country than all these bail-outs put together..
Now that's a Congressional initiative I could get behind..
“When is the 30 percent decline in Marin County’s market going to happen? Not in my lifetime.”
Smart, as if goading sellers to dig in their heels (for "God's country") serves any purpose? So Realtors, savor every instance of rebuffed offers by buyers--because 6% of nothing keeps you solvent. Classic.
"...sail them to Antarctica"
I have similar feelings towards the "great minds of business" who hollowed out our economy: let them taste "creative destruction" in exile where they can brutalize one another--far away from us.
This is an interesting forum, many different opinions; it’s great to hear what the world is thinking.
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