May, 2006 Results -- DataQuick
DataQuick has reported results for the Bay Area for May, 2006:
According to DataQuick, in Marin there was a -20.7% drop in sales and the median price fell -2.9% as compared to May, 2005.
I find it interesting that Napa, Sonoma, and Marin median sales price appreciation are all negative whereas all other counties are still positive. I wonder if that is confirmation of where most of the speculative/second home buying has been.
Sales of Bay Area homes declined for the fourteenth month in a row in May as prices continued to slowly edge up...That last sentence sounds like they are calling the peak of this cycle.
A total of 9,064 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the nine-county region last month. That was up 8.4 percent from 8,358 for April, and down 19.8 percent from 11,308 for May last year, according to DataQuick Information Systems.
Last month was the slowest May since 2001 when 7,864 homes were sold. The strongest months of May since 1988 were May 2004 with 12,028 sales, and last year. May sales hit bottom in 1995 with 5,779.
Adjusted for inflation, mortgage payments are 22 percent higher than they were at the peak of the prior cycle sixteen years ago.
According to DataQuick, in Marin there was a -20.7% drop in sales and the median price fell -2.9% as compared to May, 2005.
I find it interesting that Napa, Sonoma, and Marin median sales price appreciation are all negative whereas all other counties are still positive. I wonder if that is confirmation of where most of the speculative/second home buying has been.
posted by Marinite at Wednesday, June 21, 2006
8 Comments:
A bunch of us were talking the other day, and yes there are whole streets around here that are nothing but shut up, drapes drawn second homes. It's tough on a town being a bedroom community when there's no one in the bedrooms.
This is very interesting stuff.
Marinite, you have helped my sanity by injecting this reality.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Wow there is finally negative YoY appreciation in Marin County. But, I thought it was God's country. LOL!
Keep up the outstanding job!
David
Bubble Meter Blog
:)
It may be that Marin and Sonoma particularly are more desirable in competition with other regional counties (especially for "second" or "early retirement" homes) that the lack of supply -- mostly constrained -- is perhaps contributing more effect to pricing. I've been tracking Santa Rosa vicinity prices for about 10 years, and I think I can correlate directly dramatically shrinking construction with increasing demand and those values going up faster than other regional locations. So Marin and Sonoma have been boosted by at least THREE factors -- lack of competition; desirability as a place to live; and the market-financing environment.
In other words, theses counties are more than over-valued, they are "hyper-valued".
-2.9% YoY.
Not much, but different than "prices never drop Marin"*. Unless, of course "it's different this time".
I'm actually a bit surprised by the Marin downturn vs. Sonoma and Napa, given its proximity to a job base. It could be that once high rates kick in, using vodoo morts to buy into Tib and MV are now much less likely? Does anyone remember that IJ article of that couple that just squeezed themselves to get into Belvedere lagoon? I wonder what the future holds for those homebuyers?
*Besides, even a flat YoY represents a decrease in real prices due to inflation.
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