Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Trick Or Treat?

I just noticed this:

Price Reduction History:
Price Reduced: 07/13/06 -- $1,495,000 to $1,395,000
Price Reduced: 08/29/06 -- $1,395,000 to $1,295,000
Price Reduced: 09/15/06 -- $1,295,000 to $1,245,000
Price Reduced: 09/21/06 -- $1,245,000 to $1,199,000
Price Reduced: 10/02/06 -- $1,199,000 to $1,050,000
Price Reduced: 10/20/06 -- $1,050,000 to $945,000
Sale History
10/18/1994: $418,500
02/27/1998: $430,000
That's a 37% drop in the asking price for this over-priced 5 br 3 ba (although Zillow has it at 3 br 3 ba), built 1979 house. The assessed value is $515,920 so I am guessing these owners can afford to reduce the price a lot more. That's the sort of information you need if you are thinking of making a sensible offer on this house.


Blogger Rob Dawg said...

Cripes. Looks like a bad photoshop clone job. This ugly child has got "unpermitted" stamped onits ugly overly large forehead. If this were my sister I'd offer my friend $50 bucks to take her to the junior prom. Because I'm his friend I'd never suggest he actually marry her.

This is one of those poster children that fell out of the ugly tree and hit every faux balcony and erzatz architectural element on the way down only to catch its panties on the fuggin' ballastaude before mercifully expiriing in a bloody pulp that obscures the stamped concrete entrance foyer.

Nov 7, 2006, 6:14:00 PM  
Blogger Athena said...

bwahahahaha!!! Robert! :-D priceless. Just the kind of humor I need to see on days like today.


Nov 7, 2006, 8:15:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

They're not alone in marvelous Marin:

1. MLS 20628221
Price Reduced: 08/11/06 -- $1,490,000 to $1,449,000
Price Reduced: 08/30/06 -- $1,449,000 to $1,299,000
Price Reduced: 10/02/06 -- $1,299,000 to $1,251,000
Price Reduced: 11/06/06 -- $1,251,000 to $1,199,929

2. MLS 20613041
Price Reduced: 06/14/06 -- $1,795,000 to $1,699,000
Price Reduced: 08/08/06 -- $1,699,000 to $1,599,000
Price Reduced: 11/03/06 -- $1,599,000 to $1,399,000

And more to come...

Nov 7, 2006, 10:04:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i'm seeing quite a bit of this in the sebastopol area as well,the price reductions don't seem to help much...the reaction appears similar to what i have seen at art auctions,where after a piece has failed to reach reserve price a couple of times it is "burned" and no one will touch it,even if it is a nice piece.(this isn't)

Nov 8, 2006, 7:34:00 PM  
Blogger Rob Dawg said...

Thanks, Athena. Sometimes these redhaired children just bring out the cruel in me. At least you can wipe your bum with the gorrilla hair covering the front yard after the water and sewer are disconnected.

Wishing prices in the MLS are not selling prices and the important thing to understand is that the median home is not selling for the median price; the median homes are not selling at all. What is selling is the superior property at the median price. That's the nature of this market. Pergraniteel at Formicathrowrugstucco prices.

Nov 9, 2006, 7:52:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

That's the nature of this market. Pergraniteel at Formicathrowrugstucco prices.

God, I wish I had come up with that one. That so describes Marin.

Nov 9, 2006, 9:36:00 AM  
Blogger Rob Dawg said...

That's the nature of this market. Pergraniteel at Formicathrowrugstucco prices.

God, I wish I had come up with that one. That so describes Marin.

I have the advantage of living in "Marin South" aka Ventura County where we are unexpectedly leading the way with our 3.1% last month y-o-y median decline. That "throwrug" bit is awkward, how about?:

Formicalinoelodobe? Mellanimastroavacado?

Anyway, I suspect our decline is a statistical glitch because of our small market and growth controls (sound familiar?). We'll go down but I suspect in a lagging orderly fashion while our neighbors go down in a chaotic rout.

Nov 9, 2006, 11:17:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Same business going on over here in Alameda: piddly little price reductions that in my opinion just makes people want to hold off buying even longer.
Most of the homes that have been for sale over the last year in my neighborhood are still for sale. There are even a few that have had the "reduced" signs removed recently. My guess is that agents realize that these homes are now going to sit all winter long, and reducing the price will make no difference. Actually, I'm glad that we're going into winter.

The longer that people refuse their prices, the longer the supply will stay high, thus creating the effect on buyers that there exists no urgency to buy.
It took almost 2 years in Sydney Australia for this kind of pathetic price reduction activity to start the tumbling. I can only hope the same is going to occur here.
In my opinion, the " flyover" states are correcting way faster, and as a result will resume a more normalized market sooner versus places like the Bay Area where the crash will be later, but likely more severe as a result of the reluctance of owners to lower prices.

Nov 9, 2006, 2:02:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey, where are you guys getting your historical pricing information from? I've wanted that info for a while now.

Nov 10, 2006, 4:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

OK, here's the thing. I agree that there's a bunch of overpriced nonsense on the market right now, with a bunch of sellers who refuse to recognize that they're pricing their stuff way too high (or who can't price lower because they've HELOC'd all they can out of their places). But there are also some realistic sellers who've lowered their prices and there are, it seems to me, deals to be had if you look carefully. By my calculations, one of the places I'm looking at would sell now at roughly 13% less than an identical house did about 8 months back. I agree it may go down a bit more, say a total of about 20%. But more than that is frankly hard to fathom here. I even think there's a chance prices could start to edge up now after this election, etc., in early to mid 07. And no, I'm not a realtor. I don't work in that industry. Anyone disagree with my thinking that there really are deals out there right now?...

Nov 11, 2006, 8:31:00 AM  
Blogger B. Durbin said...

Well, see, that depends on your notion of a "deal". One reason a lot of Californians in particular have problems with this runup in prices is that it has placed owning far above what anyone but either the rich or the ones willing to get into dangerous financing can afford.

It's a deal only if you can afford it, and the inflated property taxes. If you can't, it is what is known as a "good start."

Robert Coté, your neologisms (or portmanteau words) are a delight. I like Formicalineolodobe, myself.

Nov 12, 2006, 12:56:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

From the previous sales prices through the early 90's, it looks like that house went up about 3,000 a year til the housing bubble got ahold of it.

That would make for a grand total of an extra 30K in the past 10 years, or about 448K.

Looks like they've got a ways to drop.

Nov 16, 2006, 11:36:00 PM  

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