I Concede and Must Eat Crow

I have an admission to make. It is very difficult for me to say this, I am so ashamed: I was wrong. We (bubbleheads, bubble bloggers, 'bitter renters', housing bears, etc.) were all horribly mistaken -- there is no housing bubble and there never was one; certainly not in the Bay Area. It's true, it is different this time. Most of us bubble bloggers are now being forced to make posts like the one you are now reading.

It all started when a group of very respected, very knowledgeable bubble bloggers admitted that there is no housing bubble. Please check it out for yourself (it is a great essay).

I have no choice now but to rename this blog to "Marin Real Estate: Or Why God's Country Will Appreciate at 20% Per Year Forever and Is Guaranteed to Make You a Gazillionaire or Why at the Very Least In Marin You Can Wear Your Shorts in January" blog.

I am calling my realtor right now and making an overbid on this home using a no-doc, neg am I/O loan; in 10 years time it will make me a multi-billionaire. Guaranteed.

Some choice quotes:

The housing bubble blogosphere today was reeling from a shocking announcement made by an obscure but popular Bay Area Housing bubble blog, Patrick.net. The blog’s overall tone is as bearish as any on the web (”SF Bay Area Housing Crash Continues” staunchly declares the site’s link page).

Evidently, the site’s main contributors have completely reversed course and now claim there is no housing bubble. “After so many months of denying the obvious, we had no choice but to call it quits and Face Reality,” says Peter P, one of the blog’s earliest threadmasters. “Agreed,” says HARM, “it’s painfully clear that we were dead wrong and housing is going to keep appreciating 15% a year forever, just like Gary Watts says it will.”

This essay has also convinced me that I was dreadfully wrong and that my reasoning was previously ass-backwards.