Wednesday, February 15, 2006

'Falling Faster Than I Expected'

Lereah is at it again:
Home prices in 72 metropolitan areas showed double-digit increases in the fourth quarter last year, a record that was probably the peak in this real estate cycle, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday.

‘I don’t want to say this is the last hoorah, but it certainly reflects the peak of the boom in terms of price appreciation,’ said David Lereah, the NAR’s chief economist.

But he cautioned that the market is cooling fast. Sales of existing home are falling faster than he expected. Home-price appreciation could drop to single digits this quarter, and will only be 5% for the year, down from 13% in 2005, he predicts.

‘You got to think that this thing is going to end, eventually, one way or another,’ said Christopher Thornberg, an economist with UCLA. ‘Prices have gotten to the point that, even with all the crazy financing out there, people still can’t get into the market. It’s just that over the top. We’ve never seen this size of a housing bubble before, so in a sense we’re in kind of a strange place right now,’ Thornberg said.
"We've never seen this size of a housing bubble before". And the size of the resulting bust will probably never be seen again by us (I hope we never have to see another one that is).


Blogger David said...

We really need a blog dedicated solely to watching David 'change my story' Lereah.

Feb 15, 2006, 5:31:00 PM  
Blogger sf jack said...

It could be interesting to see the quotes of Lereah and Thornburg compared at similar periods over just the last 12 months alone.

Feb 16, 2006, 12:27:00 PM  

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