Sunday, February 26, 2006

Marin's October to February YoY Percent Change in Inventory

Here is the year-over-year percent change in total available listings (i.e., inventory) in Marin for the last few months. All data comes from this realtor's site (I won't mix and match data from various sites so as to get a larger data set since I don't want to introduce errors that stem from differing data gathering methodologies). So far February, 2006 inventory is up +70% as compared to February, 2005.


If anyone has Marin inventory numbers going further back and that all comes from a single source and wants it plotted, then please send me the info.

12 Comments:

Blogger sf jack said...

Boing!!

Anybody remember the Superball? That's my vision with the chart.

Interesting terms below?

"uncontrollably"

"dropped"

"totaled"

"survived"

"convertible" (not into condos; ya know, the auto kind, for Marin!)

***********

"In the early 1960s, Norma Stingley, a chemical engineer, accidentally created a plastic product that bounced uncontrollably. He offered the product to Melin and Knerr and the SUPERBALL was created, followed by
the Super Gold Ball, Super Baseball and Super Dice. In one celebrated incident, a giant SUPERBALL, produced as a promotional item, was accidentally dropped out of a 23rd floor hotel window in Australia. It shot back up 15 floors, then down again into a parked convertible car. The car was totaled but the ball survived the "test" in perfect condition. During the 1960s, WHAM-O sold some 20 million SUPERBALLs before it was copied by competitors and WHAM-O bounced the ball from its product line."

Feb 26, 2006, 7:56:00 PM  
Blogger sf jack said...

And who put out the "Sell!" order?

Feb 26, 2006, 7:57:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...

To me (given our demographics and all), viagra comes to mind. Ooops! Did I just say that! Shame on me.

Feb 26, 2006, 8:37:00 PM  
Blogger marin_explorer said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

Feb 26, 2006, 9:47:00 PM  
Blogger sf jack said...

To answer my question above... (since according to a radio segment I heard this morning that the ratio is "higher in the North Bay")... "who put out the 'Sell!' order?" -


"You're not the only one dreaming of ditching the Bay Area for a Midwestern college town or a coastal city in the Southeast.

Two out of five residents of the nine-county region have given serious thought to moving away -- mostly because of high housing costs, according to a survey released today by a business and public policy group."

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/02/27/BAG6OHFB7V1.DTL

Or:

http://tinyurl.com/lkdes

Feb 27, 2006, 9:52:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

Two out of five residents of the nine-county region have given serious thought to moving away -- mostly because of high housing costs

Yep. I heard/read that too. I thought about blogging it but it is so damn depressing. That's what I am talking about and why this whole thing just plain sucks. And no one is going to do anything about it because the people who could are benefitting financially from it (for now) and nothing will be done about it until after we reach the point of maximum pain. Is this free market capitalism run amok?

Feb 27, 2006, 10:03:00 AM  
Blogger marin_explorer said...

And no one is going to do anything about it because the people who could are benefitting financially from it (for now) and nothing will be done about it until after we reach the point of maximum pain. Is this free market capitalism run amok?

Yes, it's run amok a bit when both government and vested interests create a credit situation that destabilizes society. Then again, if people saw past the greed, they might have taken the NAR pitch with more skepticism, and not bought into the madness. It's a good thing that blogs such as this provide a balance of information.

Beyond regulatory issues, there's of course the whole problem that consumers don't self-regulate their abuse of credit. Housing is only a part of a larger problem, symptomatic of an illusory "good life", equating material goods (the more vulgar the better) with happiness and purpose. The need is so great, people are willing to run up credit balances they can't possibly repay in the short term. Many of us want to look just a little richer than we really are. I'm sure this scenario plays out in Marin too.

Regulation is sorely needed, but how much will it help when the average consumer is willing to continue on spending, despite any external controls? If there's a will to overspend, the market will find a way to enable these consumers.

Feb 27, 2006, 10:55:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

Many of us want to look just a little richer than we really are. I'm sure this scenario plays out in Marin too.

Now THAT is an understatement if there ever was one.

Feb 27, 2006, 11:45:00 AM  
Blogger marin_explorer said...

Now THAT is an understatement if there ever was one.

Yes--obvious, but generally ignored. There's generally more game-playing (and no doubt, leverage) in status-conscious areas. Foreclosure/BK stats for Marin and SF Bay seem to suggest this.

Feb 27, 2006, 12:25:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...

I just saw a bunch of listings for unfinished houses being built by a developer out in Tiburon -- Bel Aire Estates.

Here is a link to one of them:

http://tinyurl.com/j2xbw

I think there are some others up in Novato.

Feb 27, 2006, 9:24:00 PM  
Blogger liz.mccarthy said...

Hi Marinite, I see that you are using the data from my Marin Real Estate newsletters....(I love your POS blog by the way)...I pull the data from MLS (I had to take a few months off due to a medical situation), but I'm happy to tell you what data I pulled if you want. I can't verify it's 100% accuracy, as I do it manually, and it's not always from the same time of the month unfortunately.

Not sure if I ahh, should be honored or worried that you are using my data! :)

If you have any questions, let me know.

Feb 27, 2006, 10:43:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...

liz.mccarthy -

I find your newsletter and the data it contains to be extremely useful and one of the best and one of integrity which is why I use it.

If I were you I would not feel "honored" that I use it as I am a nobody-special but you should certainly not feel "worried" that I use it that is for sure.

I don't question your data collection methodology (I just didn't know what it is, but now I do) and didn't mean to imply that I thought it was suspect. I also don't expect or demand that it be 100% accurate as we are all human and we make mistakes. And like I said above I don't think you deliberately mislead with it either. If I implied that then I apologise as that was not my intention.

But I do believe that different realtor sites (those that tabulate their data and make it publically available) might collect their data in different ways or employ different standards when deciding whether or not to include a specific piece of data in the entire data set. Doing so is often legitimate but needs to be documented. Because of this unknown I stated in the main post that I don't want to mix-and-match data from different data sources because I do not know for sure if different data collection methodologies were used or not. If differing methodologies were used and yet I aggregate the data then that would introduce a nonsystematic error in my dataset. I try to avoid that whenever possible.

To all realtors who publish data on a publically available web site: It would be very helpful if you clearly documented your data collection methodologies as well as what your data means. For example, some sites list total sales but do not make clear whether that means total SFR sales, SFR + condo sales, or everything. That's just one example of many.

Feb 28, 2006, 9:54:00 AM  

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