A place for residents of Marin County, CA and others to express their views regarding the real estate bubble and in particular the Marin real estate market
Thursday, April 20, 2006
Marin Foreclosures
Just for fun I went here and checked to see how many houses in Marin are currently in some stage of foreclosure. I didn't register for the free account (to get more detailed info) because they ask for too much personal information. But this is what I found; I am sure it's not complete or exhaustive:
55 in Novato (31 in pre-forclosure, 11 in auction, 8 bank owned, 2 FSBO, 3 new)
28 in San Rafael (18 pre-forclosure, 8 auction, 2 bank owned)
15 in Sausalito (7 pre-forclusure, 3 auction, 5 bank owned)
12 in Mill Valley (10 pre-forclosure, 2 resale)
10 in San Anselmo (6 pre-forclosure, 3 auction, 1 bank owned)
4 in Bolinas (3 pre-forclosure, 1 bank owned)
4 in Corte Madera (2 pre-forclosure, 1 auction, 1 bank owned)
2 in Fairfax (2 pre-forclosure)
1 in Greenbrae (1 pre-forclosure)
1 in Larkspur (1 pre-forclosure)
And because some people like to compare Marin County to Santa Barbara or Carmel-by-the-Sea:
70 in Santa Barbara (33 pre-foreclosure, 6 auction, 5 bank owned, 4 FSBO, 22 new)
9 in Carmel-by-the-Sea (5 pre-foreclosure, 3 auction, 1 bank owned)
Currently, I'm seeing 333 pre- and foreclosures for Marin, 910 for Sonoma. From looking at stats last summer, it appears to be roughtly twice those figures. I don't have the old figures on hand, but does that sound right?
foreclosure.com gives pretty good information- better than realtytrack I have found...
I've considered breaking down and registering for a real membership to be able to compare real estate listings with foreclosure listings... seems to me it may be a noteworthy subject to keep up on for readers.
Many buyers never really know the reason someone is selling- and a pattern of troubled sellers would definitely shed light on a dark corner of the real estate market that goes unnoticed currently.
Here's a site to quickly scan the situation in CA:
Interesting....although I think ACTUAL Foreclosures is the most significant statistic.
In terms of actual foreclosures (from Foreclosure.com)Marin doesn't look in bad shape at all, with a grand total of 3 foreclosures. Especially when compared, for example, to 238 for San Diego County or 109 for Sacramento County.
Meanwhile, I'm walking past the Swiss Hotel off the Plaza this afternoon and there in big headline print the IT states..median home price in Marin now..900 something k!
MV did the IT have anything to say about our own prices? or perhaps our inventory? oh wait... let me guess... it was all hearts, flowers and pixie dust?
I think that real foreclosure numbers aren't going to shed enough light on a market... I actually think the pre-foreclosures are more telling, because most people will list it for sale, and get out from under it, and the lender will try to work with them to do that. That is what happened last time in the 90's foreclosure was staved off for all but the most stubborn by going to a real estate agent saying they "Specialize" in foreclosure sales...
I think that is basically correct. I think it is useful to think of these foreclosures, pre-foreclosures, tax liens, bankruptcy listings as indicative of financial stress. Oops! Did I just say that? Silly me, every one here in Marin is rich and financially savvy so that can't be right.
LOL... yes, you are all rich and financially responsible... as are we. I am sure that when the preforeclosure/ and sales listings gets exposed people will simply shake their head and assume those must be amateur flippers too big for their britches. Simply people who never belonged in the market in the first place... and of course they must not really be from here. ;-)
Of course I knew that... I was referring to what the people will be saying about those in Sonoma County that make it to the foreclosure list... of course Marin doesn't have any flippers. Those notices and houses on the foreclosure block are merely victims of administrative incompetence, or the check was lost in the mail. ;-)
Whichever source you use for your research, be careful. (Full disclosure - I'm from RealtyTrac).
I couldn't believe that there were 330 pre-foreclosure properties in Marin County, and after checking the details I'm not sure that there are. More than half of the property listings are more than 300 days old, and most are at least 150 days old. That's worth noting since the pre-foreclosure process in CA only takes 138 days. By and large, these properties should have either already been auctioned off, or become REOs.
I did a quick scan of the 20 bank owned homes in Marin on our site (the most recent from April 3rd, the oldest from October 19th), and found an interesting tidbit: One of the REOs sold a month after being repossesed for $1.23 million - more than $100,000 OVER the estimated market value. California foreclosure properties continue to sell at or near full value much more than other states, holding between 80 - 85% of their market value, even while in foreclosure.
Athena, something I've been thinking about. I went to a garage sale a few weeks ago on a street where I remembered (later) I'd seen a foreclosure listing. I wonder how many pre-fore yard sales we'll see?
oooh! That's a great idea MV... I will see about perusing the foreclosure lists and comparing them against the for sale listings and you get the scoop on the garage sales! maybe we can do a double service for the FBs in Sonoma. ;-)
There was a news story on NPR this morning that Colorado had three times the national average for foreclosures. Could be nothing. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5354901 Does the county keep track of foreclosures?
First of all, some of those sites are garbage. Personally I'm using Foreclosures.com to find data, I pay for it. I buy foreclosues in Solano County, live in Marin.
Now, when I ran my search, just this year. Here's what I came up with. Notice of Default ( AKA Pre-foreclosure ) Jan-16 Feb-23 Mar-28 Apr-29
Notice of Trustee Sale: Jan-9 Feb-3 Mar-11 Apr-2
Last year their were a total of 74 filings of Notice of Trustee sale.
All this doesn't mean jack shit. What means something is what is happening with these homes. Are they selling for less before the sale? Are they going to sale? How many go back to the Bank? How about Trustee Deeds? Do you know the difference between a Grant deed and a Trustee's deed? I've emailed Marinite my graph of what 75,000 Trustee Deeds looks like...AND WHY AFFORDABILITY & TRUSTEE DEEDS ARE A LEADING INDICATOR!!!
Oh, and just for the fun of it. In Solano County Trustee's Deeds tripled in one month.
As a bankruptcy attorney since 1982, I have seen two serious real estate declines and a couple of minor corrections. During that time, I represented several foreclosure buyers who were very experienced in buying at or close to the bottom of the market. Based upon their collective wisdom, we are nowhere near the final innings of this current decline. Indeed, the Marin market, which lags corrections and leads recoveries, is suggesting that we just finished singing the National Anthem. So to those who are waiting to buy at a trustee's sale, I suggest keeping your powder dry.
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Just for fun I went here and checked to see how many houses in Marin are currently in some stage of foreclosure. I didn't register for the free account (to get more detailed info) because they ask for too much personal information. But this is what I found; I am sure it's not complete or exhaustive:
28 Comments:
Are these numbers in the range of normal? Or are these high?
Are these numbers in the range of normal?
Currently, I'm seeing 333 pre- and foreclosures for Marin, 910 for Sonoma. From looking at stats last summer, it appears to be roughtly twice those figures. I don't have the old figures on hand, but does that sound right?
Where did you go to find that 333 figure? RealtyTrac is what I used and it shows far fewer.
Here's a site to quickly scan the situation in CA:
Cool. According to that site there are 152 listings (foreclosures, preforeclosures, tax liens, and backruptcies) just in the 94941 zip alone!
foreclosure.com gives pretty good information- better than realtytrack I have found...
I've considered breaking down and registering for a real membership to be able to compare real estate listings with foreclosure listings... seems to me it may be a noteworthy subject to keep up on for readers.
Many buyers never really know the reason someone is selling- and a pattern of troubled sellers would definitely shed light on a dark corner of the real estate market that goes unnoticed currently.
Here's a site to quickly scan the situation in CA:
Interesting....although I think ACTUAL Foreclosures is the most significant statistic.
In terms of actual foreclosures (from Foreclosure.com)Marin doesn't look in bad shape at all, with a grand total of 3 foreclosures. Especially when compared, for example, to 238 for San Diego County or 109 for Sacramento County.
Meanwhile, I'm walking past the Swiss Hotel off the Plaza this afternoon and there in big headline print the IT states..median home price in Marin now..900 something k!
San Diego county's population is about 12x that of marin. Sac county's is about 5x marin's. duh
MV did the IT have anything to say about our own prices? or perhaps our inventory? oh wait... let me guess... it was all hearts, flowers and pixie dust?
I think that real foreclosure numbers aren't going to shed enough light on a market... I actually think the pre-foreclosures are more telling, because most people will list it for sale, and get out from under it, and the lender will try to work with them to do that. That is what happened last time in the 90's foreclosure was staved off for all but the most stubborn by going to a real estate agent saying they "Specialize" in foreclosure sales...
athena -
I think that is basically correct. I think it is useful to think of these foreclosures, pre-foreclosures, tax liens, bankruptcy listings as indicative of financial stress. Oops! Did I just say that? Silly me, every one here in Marin is rich and financially savvy so that can't be right.
San Diego county's population is about 12x that of marin. Sac county's is about 5x marin's. duh
Right, but the foreclosure rate is 80x and 30x, respectively. Duh!!
That's it, I'm turning off anonymous commenting. Time for some accountability. Not much, but some.
LOL... yes, you are all rich and financially responsible... as are we. I am sure that when the preforeclosure/ and sales listings gets exposed people will simply shake their head and assume those must be amateur flippers too big for their britches. Simply people who never belonged in the market in the first place... and of course they must not really be from here. ;-)
Wrong. Marin doesn't have any flippers if the permabulls are to be believed. Don't you read this blog?
Of course I knew that... I was referring to what the people will be saying about those in Sonoma County that make it to the foreclosure list... of course Marin doesn't have any flippers. Those notices and houses on the foreclosure block are merely victims of administrative incompetence, or the check was lost in the mail. ;-)
In terms of actual foreclosures (from Foreclosure.com)Marin doesn't look in bad shape at all, with a grand total of 3 foreclosures.
Perhaps not, but what got my attention was the change in pre- and foreclosure numbers since early '06.
That's it, I'm turning off anonymous commenting.
Ahhh I can breath!
I've just crawled out of the hole of anonymity!
I've just crawled out of the hole of anonymity!
You could have done that at any time.
fortunate one -
Welcome and congratulations!
Well done.
Whichever source you use for your research, be careful. (Full disclosure - I'm from RealtyTrac).
I couldn't believe that there were 330 pre-foreclosure properties in Marin County, and after checking the details I'm not sure that there are. More than half of the property listings are more than 300 days old, and most are at least 150 days old. That's worth noting since the pre-foreclosure process in CA only takes 138 days. By and large, these properties should have either already been auctioned off, or become REOs.
I did a quick scan of the 20 bank owned homes in Marin on our site (the most recent from April 3rd, the oldest from October 19th), and found an interesting tidbit: One of the REOs sold a month after being repossesed for $1.23 million - more than $100,000 OVER the estimated market value. California foreclosure properties continue to sell at or near full value much more than other states, holding between 80 - 85% of their market value, even while in foreclosure.
Keep spinning it Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney.
Athena,
something I've been thinking about. I went to a garage sale a few weeks ago on a street where I remembered (later) I'd seen a foreclosure listing. I wonder how many pre-fore yard sales we'll see?
That could be a cheap way to scoop up a 40" plasma TV.
oooh! That's a great idea MV... I will see about perusing the foreclosure lists and comparing them against the for sale listings and you get the scoop on the garage sales! maybe we can do a double service for the FBs in Sonoma. ;-)
There was a news story on NPR this morning that Colorado had three times the national average for foreclosures. Could be nothing.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5354901
Does the county keep track of foreclosures?
First of all, some of those sites are garbage. Personally I'm using Foreclosures.com to find data, I pay for it. I buy foreclosues in Solano County, live in Marin.
Now, when I ran my search, just this year. Here's what I came up with.
Notice of Default ( AKA Pre-foreclosure )
Jan-16
Feb-23
Mar-28
Apr-29
Notice of Trustee Sale:
Jan-9
Feb-3
Mar-11
Apr-2
Last year their were a total of 74 filings of Notice of Trustee sale.
All this doesn't mean jack shit. What means something is what is happening with these homes. Are they selling for less before the sale? Are they going to sale? How many go back to the Bank? How about Trustee Deeds? Do you know the difference between a Grant deed and a Trustee's deed? I've emailed Marinite my graph of what 75,000 Trustee Deeds looks like...AND WHY AFFORDABILITY & TRUSTEE DEEDS ARE A LEADING INDICATOR!!!
Oh, and just for the fun of it. In Solano County Trustee's Deeds tripled in one month.
Caddis
As a bankruptcy attorney since 1982, I have seen two serious real estate declines and a couple of minor corrections. During that time, I represented several foreclosure buyers who were very experienced in buying at or close to the bottom of the market. Based upon their collective wisdom, we are nowhere near the final innings of this current decline. Indeed, the Marin market, which lags corrections and leads recoveries, is suggesting that we just finished singing the National Anthem. So to those who are waiting to buy at a trustee's sale, I suggest keeping your powder dry.
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