Saturday, April 15, 2006

More March Results for Marin

Here are some more year-over-year results for Marin from this realtor's web site.
"Active" -- all non-contingent properties currently listed as 'for sale'.
"In Contract" -- anything that is currently in escrow.
"Total" -- 'Active' plus 'In Contract'.
The total number of active 'for sale' listings nearly doubled (+96%) in Marin in February, 2006 as compared to February, 2005; it is presently up 70% as compared to this time last year. The number of properties that are in contract has been negative year-over-year (with the exception of February, 2006).

7 Comments:

Anonymous Caddis said...

I had an agent tell me that "affordability didn't matter" and that the interest rates do. I ask about Trustee Deeds...again didn't matter. How about Net Migration...again, didn't matter...She just keept on talking about the interest rates. I wonder what those guys that are building those nice new houses in Novato are going to do? Oh and one other thing...She said it was the rain that was keeping the buyers away.

Apr 15, 2006, 3:54:00 PM  
Anonymous rejunkie said...

Marinite-

This realtor asserts that it is a seller's market once again, for the first time since last summer. Also, dqnews.com reports that ARM usage has plummeted so can I am assume that this higher demand, coupled with the jump in median values in March, is coming from more financially healthy buyers and is therefore "real" demand?

Or is this a dead cat bounce?

Apr 15, 2006, 4:30:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It will always be a seller's market.
They are not making any more land.
Marin is the county of the best people and houses.
If you don't own yet, you are screwed.

Owners will sit and watch as the renters and others fall into the abyss.
Owners will become rich beyond measure.

Not!

Apr 16, 2006, 1:25:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

This realtor asserts that it is a seller's market once again

She had to round the calculation up so that it would just bearly reach the "Seller's market" qualification. I would say the market is split between seller's and balanced.

Apr 16, 2006, 10:51:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

What is more interesting to me is the increased supply in combination with the negative sales, all compared to this time last year. In a healthy market increased supply would entail increased sales. The market is clearly less healthy this year than last.

The thing about median (or average) price statistics is even if just two houses sell and they happen to be multi-million dollar houses, the median or average will go up and if that is the only statistic you pay attention to then you think the market is great when it clearly is not.

As market conditions deteriorate the weaker hands will get shaken out first progressively leaving the stronger ones. So you would expect pregressively wealthier folks buying as market conditions get worse. I would think that is true of all markets and is nothing special to Marin.

Apr 16, 2006, 11:03:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

junkie -

I don't know about the dead cat bounce thing. I doubt this Spring is the dead cat bounce...too early it seems to me. I think we are just in the normal Spring selling season and this Spring selling season is turning out to be a lot weaker than last year's. But of course, the famous Marin weather has been really bad this year so that may be all there is to it. Although one thing for sure is that a little rain would not have stopped people from buying during the frenzies of years past. A dead cat bounce usually occurs well after a market collapse has been unanimously agreed to have already occurred; we are not there yet; as I know you know perfectly well RE markets have a much slower time-course than most other markets.

We also continue to have a system where practically free money is dumpted into the market -- 90%, 100%, even 125% loans that require little if any documentation. Yet despite the easy to get loans these pathetic sales figures are the best we can do? I think there is more than just rain going on here.

Apr 16, 2006, 11:40:00 AM  
Anonymous tom stone said...

i expect the dead cat bounce in spring 07,bad loans are still there check out www.ff.com, 100% to 900k,at 700 fico,no asset verification or reserve requirements,avm or drive by appraisal ok,no,no mi required,up to 55.49 % dti ok.insane loans.

Apr 17, 2006, 9:50:00 AM  

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