Wednesday, February 22, 2006

Price Reductions in Marin as of February, 22 2006

Following the lead of Athena over at the Sonoma Housing Bubble blog (I ask you, how can I go wrong following in the footsteps of a goddess?), here is the price reduction history and Days on Market (DOM) statistics for all of Marin County (search range is from $0 to $10 million) as of today care of ZipRealty:
Total units showing reduced prices: 62 (or 17% of the searched market)

Average DOM: 115
Max DOM: 337

Average percent price reduction: -4.93%
Max percent price reduction: -17.1%
You can view the full listing by address over at the Marin Address Pricing History thread.

11 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here's an update on one of the properties. It was sold in mid 02 for 845k, now listed for 1.2 million. Assuming that prices have remained flat Jan 05 to Jan 06 and based on median price data, the data would argue that the price should be up by 20%, or up to 1.030 million since the 845k sale and I know 200k in improvements have not been made. mmmm, looking for a sucker.....

From the Marin Address Pricing thread.

Speculatino in marin is rampant just like it is everywhere else in bubble CA its just not as obvious. Give it time and that -4% will become -40%. Buyers -- just wait be patient and you will see.

Feb 22, 2006, 5:43:00 PM  
Blogger Athena said...

LOL... Athena enters the blog humbled and bowing very low in gratitude for such a compliment...

It was only after seeing the vast amounts of information and data here that I endeavored to do the same for my tiny and starry eyed hamlet. I aspire to but follow in your blogsteps!

By the way... those price increases are heinous. who are these people who believe their house is their own personal investment bank?

Feb 22, 2006, 5:57:00 PM  
Blogger Athena said...

oh and just saw the sad reductions... those are really sticky coming down. I thought Sonoma wasn't budging much... but marin really doesn't get it. wow!

Feb 22, 2006, 6:01:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...

those price increases are heinous. who are these people who believe their house is their own personal investment bank?

It's called The Marin Hubris and Entitlement Co.

Feb 22, 2006, 6:07:00 PM  
Blogger marin_explorer said...

who are these people who believe their house is their own personal investment bank?

Yep, I've also argued with argued with family and friends on the tenuous support of recent appreciation. Why should homes offer far greater ROI than companies which actually produce a product from investment?

It sure looks like sellers are trying to attract buyers with rather incremental reductions, until 'the bitter end' I suppose!

Feb 22, 2006, 6:56:00 PM  
Blogger moonvalley said...

I thnk they're just scared to look at the actual value and don'ty want to face the hole many of them have dropped into.
Our friends in Fairfax are talking of selling their place and getting something closer to the city for a commute. I'll be very interested in what they price their place at. It's such a weird time to sell. But then again they did just buy a new MB.

Feb 23, 2006, 11:27:00 AM  
Blogger sf jack said...

"It sure looks like sellers are trying to attract buyers with rather incremental reductions, until 'the bitter end' I suppose!"

Chase that market down! It might be like training dogs.

"It's called The Marin Hubris and Entitlement Co."

That is hilarious! The funniest thing I've seen around here in a long time.

Feb 23, 2006, 2:36:00 PM  
Blogger sf jack said...

Ah... here's a good Bay Area story from over at the Ben's housingbubble. The original question:

"Wouldn’t it be safe to assume that after a correction and cool down, prices would likely follow at least the traditional 6% per year growth rate?"

The other respondent gave a clear "no" based on some Shiller information.

Here was another and I don't think they are inflation-adjusted figures (this story also begs the question I have - will there be another Alan Greenspan style low rate environment in the future to spur another outrageous California real estate market toward the next peak of the cycle in some future years?):

"Comment by Cashed out of CA in 2005

2006-02-22 20:37:08

To answer your question, it’s worth looking at the last big housing boom-bust cycle in CA. In 1988 the stories in SF bay were just like those we’ve heard recently — multiple bids — people making offers without seeing homes as soon as they are listed — etc.

By mid-1989, our house, which was built for $42k in 1969, would have sold for $545k. Then came the October market crash, the invasion of Kuwait, and the general recession. We bought that house for $455k in early 1992 after it sat for 8 months on the market.

By mid-1993 we refinanced to 15 years and the appraisal came in at $435k — and it would have been $410k had we not spent $25k on a new kitchen.

By 1995 things were crawling back — a neighbor, who’d bought at the peak in 1988 for $550k — felt lucky to get $495k in the late summer.

By 1996 prices were back over 1988 levels — in 1997 they shot up over $700k, hung in the low 700s for a couple years, then in 1999 shot up to $1M.

So, in short, a buyer in 1988 probably had to wait 7 years to break even, but if they held on 5 years more they would have made enough profit to cover the first 7."

Feb 23, 2006, 6:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So, in short, a buyer in 1988 probably had to wait 7 years to break even, but if they held on 5 years more they would have made enough profit to cover the first 7."

Nominally. But what is that sale price in 1988 dollars? im too lazy to do the math but it's probably about 60%

Feb 23, 2006, 7:34:00 PM  
Blogger Rob Dawg said...

A minor nit about stickiness. ASKING prices are proving sticky on the way down. SALES prices however are falling fast and hard. The two are not the same.

Feb 24, 2006, 8:47:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

A minor nit about stickiness. ASKING prices are proving sticky on the way down. SALES prices however are falling fast and hard. The two are not the same.

That's a very good point.

Feb 24, 2006, 9:42:00 AM  

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