Monday, August 21, 2006

History Lesson

It's time for a history lesson. I originally posted this listing of news headlines almost a year ago and I've noticed that lately it's been making the rounds over at Ben's place. Where are we today? Seems like the later part of 1989.

21 Comments:

Anonymous Yooklid said...

I'd have to agree with your assesment there Marinite. By the way - good that you noticed someone had swiped your work!

Aug 21, 2006, 6:37:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...

Not "swiped" especially since they didn't claim that they had done the work. People can cross-post my stuff all they want...the more the better IMO...just give credit where credit is due is all I ask. Same goes with graphs -- unlike other blogs none of my graphs have this blog's URL plastered on them; if one of my graphs get posted somewhere else, fine, just link back to here and I am satisfied.

Aug 21, 2006, 7:53:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

marinite,

I seriously think there are days when you don't realize, or rather forget, how meaningful and important what you do really is. Whether you like it or not you are a public servant, you don't have to be, but you are, by choice. That is truly noble.

I have to admit that Ben Jones blog is a great source of imformation from all over the country, which really makes it appeal to alot of people. One thing I have noticed though is that Ben puts little to no opinions or thoughts in his posts. Your blog on the other hand deals with a very specific region which quite frankly alot of people could give a rats ass about. What really makes it enjoyable for me though is the personal touch I get from your comments and insights. I almost feel like I know you in some ways. Ben Jones on the other hand is a computer program that scours the web a posts it's findings based on keyword searches. No offense to Ben because I feel his blog is very important and serves a specific purpose but I am just trying to point out why I actually enjoy reading your blog almost every day. With Ben's blog it is almost like I am going through the motions and often I can't even bare to read it anymore, again not that it isn't important or useful but I have read this stuff for so long it starts to wear on you.

OK not sure where I am really going with all this but I guess I just wanted to say THANKS!!! Thanks for the great blog... and stuff.

Aug 21, 2006, 10:23:00 PM  
Anonymous liz said...

I wish i had the ability to do a blog like yours for suffolk county long island. Same shit here too. I have no idea how people are paying their way here. Our prices are just slightly less than Marin, but we have the highest real estate taxes and of course the highest gas prices. And all the parents i work with have children who INSIST on shopping at Abercrombie for back to school clothes!!! $100 for a sweater for a 9 year old? have people lost their minds?

thanks for the GREAT BLOG. I feel alone in my bubble sitting here in new york. - liz

Aug 22, 2006, 8:22:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

anon 10:23:28 -

Whether you like it or not you are a public servant, you don't have to be, but you are, by choice. That is truly noble.

You are right, I forget that or rather don't see myself as a public servant but I've sort of stumbled onto it. I see myself as a concerned individual who has few inhibitions agains speaking my mind.

I do believe that if you want to make a meaningful difference in the world then you must freely give of yourself a significant amount of your time and effort without thinking of how much money it is going to make for you or not. Our culture has forgotten that. We can't count on our official public representatives to do the right thing. If everyone did something, then it would add up to a huge force for good whereas one little 'ol blogger like me all by myself doesn't do much good.

America has forgotten herself.

What really makes it enjoyable for me though is the personal touch I get from your comments and insights.

There's certainly no shortage of opinion on this blog. That's for sure. I struggle with the opposing motivations between saying what I think and feel vs. just reporting what is going on. So I vascillate.

Your blog on the other hand deals with a very specific region which quite frankly alot of people could give a rats ass about

You should not give a rat's ass about Marin; it's not worth it. The point is that Marin is like a lot of other places in CA and the USA (and other places are a lot like Marin vis the RE bubble anyway) and what is going on here is going on there too.

That is truly noble...I almost feel like I know you in some ways

Thanks for your praise; it is deeply apprediated; you've touched my heart.

liz -

I wish i had the ability to do a blog like yours for suffolk county long island

That's what Athena, blogger for the Sonoma Housing Bubble Blog, said once too until I convinced her to start her own blog and I taught her what I know (which took like 5 mins LOL). So, if you have the motivation (which you clearly do) then I offer to help you start a blog of your own.

Aug 22, 2006, 9:57:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Marinite,

I read your blog daily, you have a great way of blending the facts with humor. It's nice to know that at least some Californian's see the absurdity in the "million dollar track home". When did money lose all it's value?

Aug 22, 2006, 2:59:00 PM  
Blogger hemorrhoidforhousing said...

History lesson? Didn't a wise person say something like; "If you don't learn your lessons from the past you're screwed!"

Or maybe something along those lines.

The new paradigm goes something like; "If you don't learn your lessons from the past it's because it's different this time and the old rules don't apply anymore."

Sound familiar?

Aug 22, 2006, 3:17:00 PM  
Blogger rejunkie said...

Californian's see the absurdity in the "million dollar track home" - anon #546,382

Tract home! As in "tract of land", not "track", as in railroad track.

Sorry, it is such a common error that if you are going to start commenting on RE, you had better learn the lingo.

Aug 22, 2006, 8:53:00 PM  
Anonymous car lover said...

O.K. folks,
Is it going down?
Really?
In Marin?
Not yet.
When?
Will prices really go down?
Flat, yes.
Down, not yet.
I see the logic of a decline, but I don't see the prices going down.
How long 'til the decline?

Aug 22, 2006, 11:53:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Okay rejunkie,

Let's not be pedantic okay? I've lived abroad for 8 years now speaking mainly watered down English and my spelling has deteriorated a bit. The bright side is that I can ask "where is the bathroom" in at least 4 languages :)

Aug 23, 2006, 12:39:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I see the logic of a decline, but I don't see the prices going down.
How long 'til the decline?


July's data seems to contradict that assumption of your. Prices are going down. I am tracking homes right now that have dropped in price. Some - more than 90k.

Aug 23, 2006, 2:26:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I also have seen prices going down, mainly by watching certain neighborhoods and noticing that properties have been delisted/relisted at a lower price. Realtor games to hide declines for the short term I think. I've also noticed that for newer listings, they are asking less for more square footage. (okay, haven't done a neighborhood analysis but appears to be across the board)

Aug 23, 2006, 7:04:00 AM  
Anonymous trailer trash said...

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Aug 23, 2006, 9:12:00 AM  
Anonymous pothead said...

I don't think real prices are going down yet. List prices are dropping, but homes are generally still selling for more than the last sale. For now.

Aug 23, 2006, 10:06:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

I see the logic of a decline, but I don't see the prices going down.
How long 'til the decline?


Sellers are still holding out for prices that they consider they are entitled to...peak bubble prices. This thing is over.

Aug 23, 2006, 10:10:00 AM  
Blogger fredtobik said...

"just link back to here and I am satisfied."

Google ads INCOMMING!

"Your blog on the other hand deals with a very specific region which quite frankly alot of people could give a rats ass about."

Uh? God's Country? Hello! JK
This is something I have pointed out before, maybe a Re-branding is in order? With a new mission statement? Just in time for the real crash, and the google ads!


In my little nook of Marin CO. The houses I see as comparable to mine (about200), a grand total of 10! houses have been put up for sale in the last 3 months. 6 were sold at asking or just below, two still on the market, and two delisted. The delists were flippers that were asking waaay too much for this area avg price is about 850ish and they were trying for 1mil, 950ish. More importantly (for me anyway), all houses sold in the last two years have averaged 48% more than what I paid for mine in 04! I sure wish this crash would hurry up and get over with already.

Aug 23, 2006, 11:34:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

Google ads INCOMMING!

No ads.

Aug 23, 2006, 11:48:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"...all houses sold in the last two years have averaged 48% more than what I paid for mine in 04!"

Timing is everything. Back in 1999, someone bought JDSU at $100 a share. If he sold it 6 months later, he probably could fetch $200 per share. If he is selling today, he is getting a little more than $2 per share. When to buy and realize the profit is the most important thing in the investment world.

Aug 23, 2006, 11:51:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

More importantly (for me anyway), all houses sold in the last two years have averaged 48% more than what I paid for mine in 04!

You know fred, the self-promotion is wearing thin on me. I don't know how others feel, but enough already. I could make similar claims about my own situation but I don't.

Aug 23, 2006, 11:53:00 AM  
Blogger fredtobik said...

"You know fred, the self-promotion is wearing thin on me."

I have never meant it to be a "self-promotion", I apologize if it was taken that way.

I am suggesting that buyers before 05 have a long way to go before they are upside down, which is one reason why I feel that a housing "crash" in Marin is not likely.

I am not dillusonal about equity, and do not consider it important.

Aug 23, 2006, 12:48:00 PM  
Anonymous liz said...

Freddy...if you own a home already... what the heck are you doing on this blog site anyway? Shouldn't you be off enjoying your wealth?

Marinite, thanks for offering to help me start my own blog for long island, ny! We need one here desperately, just not sure if i'm up to the challenge.

Thank goodness ALL you seem to hear today is the housing crash & burn... Bring it on baby!

Liz

Aug 24, 2006, 10:42:00 AM  

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