Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Final DataQuick Data for July, 2006

Ok, I have to post this one.

Here is the final tabulation of July, 2006's results according to DataQuick. Marin County's year-over-year "appreciation" was -6.61%. Napa and Sonoma counties came in at -1.32% and -1.82%, respectively. Adjust for inflation and it isn't pretty and not unexpected. I predict a cold winter this year, maybe even snow, then a "dead cat bounce" in spring, then final capitulation.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why is Mill Valley up 31% ?

Is MV the true bubble resistant center of the universe?

Anybody know why MV is still going up?

Aug 24, 2006, 1:58:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

I seem to recall that it was negative two or three months back. Unfortunately, back dates of DataQuick's data must be paid for (I'm glad I've started archiving them over in the Marin Data blog and now I guess I will continue to do so so that other folks don't have to pay that fee). I'm away from my data set now but I will try to remember to look into it this evening.

There may be a preponderance of very expensive homes selling and that would cause the measure of central tendency to go up even though prices in general are going down. I'm just speculating at this point but I can find out. It's easy to imagine that the rising interest rates haven't yet affected the sorts of folk who can and are willing to pay millions for a house.

Aug 24, 2006, 9:51:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The MLS has the July 2005 Medium at $861,000 with 314 sales and the July 2006 Medium at $850,000 with 229 sales.

Aug 24, 2006, 10:05:00 AM  
Blogger cajun100 said...

I do believe that the market with the most "stickiness" is the highest quadrant. Here we have people with cash, equity to pull from other properties, stock, trust funds, etc. I see little if any slowdown last few weeks in transfers -- perhaps there has been some moderation of price.

Here is a little anecdotal experience: when I purchased my small house in Mill Valley in 1977, the entire hilltop neighborhood was composed of older (1900-1960) smallish houses, with a handful of larger places. Average price in 1977, $120-200,000. Average size, probably 1000-2000 square feet.

At this point in time, my place and the one right next door (similar vintage and smaller size) are the ONLY houses (of perhaps 80 in the "neighborhood") that have not been through multiple transfers and remodels over the last decade. Average price last 12 months, $1.5 million. Size, probably 2500 feet. Price range LAST SIX MONTHS (including this month) $2-3.5 million, depending on attributes. Average public marketing time -- something like 1 to 3 weeks. The last 6 sales or so were larger and more expensive than any others in recent memory.

This type of pattern is what props up those median values in smaller market segments where values have remained relatively high, and where available properties are limited. Personally, I think the highest end market will slow also, before long, but at this point it may be more a "transfer of demand" effect (say, from north of San Rafael and/or in San Francisco to southern Marin) permitting people who can afford it to get more house or a more expensive or desired location for the same planned outlay. This market support simply does not exist for serious overpriced, less desirable properties. Eventually the market stats should reflect this.

Aug 24, 2006, 11:43:00 AM  

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