Update (8/14/06): This house is now in "sale pending" mode. See? This is how houses are being sold now -- if you want to sell your house you need to mark it down to more realistic levels.Here's a newly constructed (2003) Novato house that the listing agent is claiming is asking less than what the owner's paid for including the cost of upgrades -- "$86K price REDUCTION! Now below orig purch $$ plus aft mrkt upgrades". The low-down:
- 4 br 3 ba
- Built 2003
- 2924 sq ft
Original Asking Price: $985,000With the help of a reader (see comments section) it appears that the current owners owe a total of $969,568 on this house; they refinanced twice; they are using variable rate loans. After closing costs and agent commission it looks like these folks are going to lose in the ball park of $133,500.
Current Asking Price: $899,000 (-9%)
Days on market: 106
43 comments:
your email doesn't allow me to email you. What's the address? I can provide you a property history report.
Caddis
You need to remove the anti-spam part from my email. Then I will send you the address.
With Caddis' help it appears that the current owners refinanced their loan twice increasing what they owe to $969,568. I'll alter the original post to reflect these new facts.
I think we estimated that they put ~$172k down...their loss may not be as substantial as the $130k you indicated. BUT...they'll likely have to go lower if they have their price point where it's at. Then they'll realize this loss.
~caddis
or a loss, not necessarily $130k
It's ok...public data and all. Just visit your local county recorders office.
"After closing costs and agent commission it looks like these folks are going to lose in the ball park of $133,500."
******
Doh!
That's gotta hurt... with more pain on the way.
I get a little "weirded out" when you start talking about personal finacial decisions
It IS weird but this info is all publically available. I can even see the name of the original borrower, the fact that he added a woman (presumably his new wife) and her name, what type of loan, the rate, the lender, dates for everything, all sorts of stuff.
Come on Marinite there is a line.
The "line" is that I don't disclose the names or addresses even though both can be easily had and are publicly available.
so we can all LOL
If you are "LOL"ing that is your problem. Why don't you tell me where you think "the line" is. You are the one who is creating an exagerated situation by suggesting getting their criminal record, past addresses, etc.
What I am trying to do is point out, despite popular and convenient myth, that a) there are flippers (or at least short-term investors) in Marin, b) housing doesn't always go up even in Marin, c) there are people here with ARMs (and everything that entails) even in Marin, d) prices in Marin can come down, are coming down, even though the median statistic goes up, e) the bubble is starting its collapse even in Marin.
Having said that, if people think I've crossed the line then I'll stop. So readers, speak up...have I gone too far with my myth busting? I'll start another poll to get an answer if I have to.
Keep it up Marinite. You're providing a valuable service. This guy sounds trollish.
This guy sounds trollish.
fredtobik is definately not a troll. He's been contributing to this blog since the beginning. I don't always agree with him or appreciate his comments or the way he chooses to express them and god knows I've been just a little peeved at times by some of the things he's written (but then I'm no angel on that score either), but the fact that he has stuck it out here this long earns him a place here.
First of all if you want to remain anonymous you can...just form a trust when you buy a property. This forum is great because it's a catch all things real estate. Otherwise I'd be spending much more time wasting my time, looking for all the good data that comes my way. Besides...do you think all that junk mail, phone canvassers, etc...don't have access to it? I see more stuff everday that most people would never want anyone to know about...
~caddis
No you're not crossing the line at all.
Countless articles were printed when prices were appreciating and they all included details on purchase price and financing. And they usually had the owners names and photos to boot!!
Myth-busting is important. Keep up the good work.
Cheers, Haggis
if people think I've crossed the line then I'll stop.
Real case studies are the most compelling way to prove this happens in Marin. Otherwise, such stories are far easier to dismiss. And you are maintaining some anonymity.
Good job.
roro -
Since you subscribe to legal papers and RealtyTrack any chance you could share some info? I am too cheap to subscribe to anything so I have to use whatever I can find that is free since I don't get paid for any of this.
Rejunky and Fred...
I think you are missing the point.
If marinite can access this data, then so can anybody. WTF?
I think privacy is an issue and in our current environment, privacy is disappearing. WTF?
If anything, marinite is doing these folks and all of us a favor by showing how easily such "personal" info can be accessed by anyone.
That being said, I am relieved to hear of dropping prices.
I have been dismayed by the amount of profit made by "investor/flippers" who don't live here and drive the prices up.
I wish no ill on anyone.
I don't know the stories of the people listed here.
I do know I've been very frustrated by the RE climate here in Marin.
I don't like hearing of other's misfortunes.
It is however revelatory to hear that the fundamentals are real.
I've spent too many years looking at unaffordable properties that keep going farther and farther out of reach.
Marinite is offering a bit of hope for the common man in Marin.
KTF
Keep up the good work marinite! im on the east coast suffering too with this damned prices and all the bull crap going on with speculators and buyers driving the prices up triple in only 4 years. Its such bullshit!!! Its NICE to see ACTUAL cases where prices ARE falling. I really don't care if you "out" some cheesehead flippers. ... greedy bitches can rot with their purchases.
angry... yup i am. Been working my ass off to save 300k to buy a house. 5 years ago i could have bought a GORGEOUS home or small farm... here it gets me a rotting bungalo in a sh+tty area.
have a good day.
In the seller's multiple offer market not a single seller would negotiate with a buyer. In the buyers market, the loan information is going to be a great negotiating tool.
Marinite, what you doing is great. Our local newspaper still publishes the sales with addresses and sometimes names and "huge" gains. You are just providing the other side.
Privacy has been gone, get used to it.
you are connecting the dots from various data sources and making it convenient for others to use.
...exactly. I could do it myself, but it saves everyone time (on public data). I appreciate your effort, thanks.
anon #565,455 said:
"Marinite, what you doing is great. Our local newspaper still publishes the sales with addresses and sometimes names and "huge" gains. You are just providing the other side."
*******
I agree - what marinite is doing is great.
If one looks at the SJ Mercury News real estate section, regularly published there is information on real estate transactions for all the world to see.
The info includes buyer's name, purchase price and date, as well as the previous sale date and price. And if I recall, I think I've seen it include the seller's name.
I hope they keep printing this info as the market slides.
And I hope marinite keeps doing what he does.
rejunkie -
I give your opinion a lot of weight on this blog as you have been a thoughtful and even-handed contributor here from the beginning. You know that. So I am going to take my time to explain myself here and at the same time try not to be too redundant with what I've already said in previous comments. And you should not take anything here as a personal offense because that is not how it is intended. If I have "crossed the line" then I want to know about it so that I can alter posts to not be across that line; the same sort of thing I did with the incident with the IJ.
1) Newspaper and magazines publish listing info, prices, city, along with pictures of the property all the time; some of those magazines/papers are even free. IMO what my recent posts do is really no different except that my posts are emphasizing the downside whereas said magazines and newspapers emphasized the upside. But you know this. So are you saying that it is ok to put the price, sale history, and a picture when prices are going up but when they are going down then it becomes not ok?
2) I realize my posts show how easy it is to "connect the dots", to get information about people's finances; I realize they show that anyone can do it. That's a very important issue. But that is a discussion for another forum. However, I think anyone who is thinking of buying a house should strive to get this information for themselves so as to make the most intelligent and informed buying decision possible and if I demonstrate how easy it is then that is perhaps a service too.
3) My intention with these posts is to shed some truth on certain myths that are commonly held about Marin:
What I am trying to do is point out, despite popular and convenient myth, that a) there are flippers (or at least short-term investors) in Marin, b) housing doesn't always go up even in Marin, c) there are people here with ARMs (and everything that entails) even in Marin, d) prices in Marin can come down, are coming down, even though the median statistic goes up, e) the bubble is starting its collapse even in Marin.
To that end, it is far more effective to show real-world examples than to just claim it is so (which is what I have had to do in the past). By necessity I could not do posts like these before now simply because these situations did not exist before as the market was going up up up in its manic way. Now that it is turning it is possible to do posts like these. In other words, the timing of these posts could not happen in any other way.
4) Also, my intention is not to 'make fun' of these sellers. As you know, the fact is that I am both saddened and angered by this whole multi-dimensional situation (please refer to the many previous posts on this blog where I bemoan the housing bubble's effects on community, the state, families, etc.) as I think it could have been avoided and should most definitely be avoided in the future. Hence, my position that at the very least short-term speculation in certain asset classes, of which housing is one, should be either prohibited or made so difficult that few would want to do it. I don't have much of an issue with long-term investors or people whose intention is to rent their properties thus providing a service for the common good. (for what it's worth, I include you in that last camp by the way.) But short-term (say less than five years or so...I know that's arbitrary) or blatant speculation is another story. In the past short-term speculators and flippers were not much of a problem but over the last few years they have become an absolutely huge problem and that's when I start caring about it.
5) You said:
You used to have thought-provoking, philosophical and analytical posts about the bubble -- now it is just becoming a wall of shame.
The "wall of shame" is the Marin POS blog where I would hope it is clear that the intent of that blog is humor combined with astonishment. The focus of these post, as I've just tried to explain, is not to shame anyone but to point out the vacuous nature of certain Marin myths. The "philosophical and thought-provoking" posts aren't ending but now that things are turning for the worse (or so it seems; I admit it is still too early to be sure) I think it is important and relevant to use real world examples to reinforce some of the things that have been said, claimed, predicted on this (and other) blogs.
rejunkie, would this issue be solved to your satisfaction if I didn't post any pictures of the properties that are selling at break-even or loss points but otherwise not changed?
Marin,
Good points, all of them. And my sentiments as well.
I can also see Fredtobik & rejunkies points and I don't think anybody takes especial glee in seeing people lose money whether they be flippers or otherwise. I think in more normal times we'd all see it a little to much as the voyeur syndrome.
But...there are no street addresses/names ergo I couldn't just waltz down to the county offices and pull down the personal info.
And, more importantly, IMHO, if these sad examples convince even one family to eschew taking on a crippling financial burden because of the massive marketing/societal pressures to 'get on the ladder - you can't lose with real estate' I think your efforts are worthwhile.
And kudo's to Fredtobik & rejunkies for reminding us all that our motivations & methods should always be open to examination.
Cheers, Haggis
And kudo's to Fredtobik & rejunkies for reminding us all that our motivations & methods should always be open to examination.
Very true.
But...there are no street addresses/names ergo I couldn't just waltz down to the county offices and pull down the personal info.
To be accurate, I can pull any of those addresses from my laptop in all of 5 min. But I have no motivation to use that info for anything invasive; that's more an issue of personal conduct. I think we can tell the difference between investigative reporting and invasion of privacy. When local papers don't pull their weight, it's great when bloggers like Marinite pick up the torch.
When local papers don't pull their weight, it's great when bloggers like Marinite pick up the torch.
Thank you for making that point.
Yes, the number one reason why I became motivated to start this blog in the first place was because I got so dang fed up with the Marin IJ being "in bed" with the local real estate industry and not providing any kind of balanced, objective, or honest reporting (of course the same could be said about some other regional papers but the IJ was the main one). In fact, there were times when I caught the IJ apparently misrepresenting/distorting official facts and figures to support their pro-Marin-RE agenda, or so it seemed to me. I had the data to the contrary and I decided it was important enough to make it public so as to try to balance out the "propaganda" being published by the IJ.
That and the fact that they decided to publish an article featuring this blog is the reason why I have a significant number of readers at all. I really owe the IJ my thanks, sorta.
I don't get it people. It is ok for some people to brag about the great lifestyle one could have by living in Marin and the fact that real estate prices always go up here. It is not OK for this site to point out that not every single real estate investment in Marin makes profits or huge amount of money like some people have been claiming.
There are risk factors associated with any kind of investment. Real estate investments have become very speculative and dangerous for the past few years. This is like the NASDAQ 2000. The pros have been staying away from the market already. These cases just highlight the risks and the facts. Market going up or down is tied to demand and supply - Econ 101. There is no single investment is free of risk especially a lot money involved. Real estate investments in Marin are also included, special or not.
but beating someone when they are down isn't very heroic.
Isn't that more an interpretation, than the author's actual motives? I don't see any "beating" in this post; where is it exactly? (But let's not flame over this).
Perhaps seeing reduced listing prices is that "beating"? When my the local mantra has been "Marin real estate never goes down," these posts are less a "beating" as a refreshing look at reality. (IMO)
I didn't know that info on your type of loan, rate, lender, dates etc were publically available. What an open invitation for identity theft.
I can see the logic in recording the sales price/date, previous salesprice/dates, even the parties names. But I can't figure out how the more specific financial details do the public any good. A little help here?
I say anything that is public is fair game.
This includes any connecting of dots.
Great work Marinite.
I don't believe you crossed a line of impropriety in the slightest.
This information is readily available to the public.
Real estate has impacted not only our economy on a national scale, but on a state level and local community level. This information is useful for consumers and people who may even think about buying now or in the future. At this point people with unfortunate financing schemes have impacted all of us. They have hit us all where we live so to speak. So for people to be able to see this information as they consider the real estate market is helpful. It is already publicly available, and I am sure some prudent buyers know to look this information up before putting in an offer, but in the frenzied market such as we have seen far too many did not I am sure. This highlights the artificial value assigned to real estate.
If we pulled every record of every house bought in the county over the past few years, I think it would bear what Joe Schmoe doesn't want to believe... they were not paying for the amount of value in the property, but for the amount of debt carried by the seller.
This is nothing more than case examples of the pyramid scheme that is our housing market for the past 5 years.
thanks for being so diligent and not being afraid to have the hard conversations, Marinite.
Athena
"I am not saying it shouldn't be public information. I am saying it bothers me that it is posted on a blog."
Sorry Fred. That's what it means for information to be public. You're wrong on this one. Once information is public it can be referenced and published at will.
Marinite is not kicking anyone. This information is the same stuff that every buyer's real estate agent is looking over prior to advising a client on what might be an appropriate offer. That's the kicking that hurts.
I find this attack on Marinite misplaced and personally offensive since I value her perspective and insights.
Try to compose yourself and get some perspective on the situation.
Wow...Marinite...I had no idea that this would be such a hot issue. Oh and for the arguement of identity theft....I see more socials, names, address etc that the entire county system would have to be redone just to cover that stuff up.
Good job!
~Caddis
I find this attack on Marinite misplaced and personally offensive
Just for the record, I do not at all feel attacked.
Marinite's digest of this property was one of the most educational RE posts I've seen in recent memory. The use of relevant public information is never an abuse. She told an important story, and withheld gratuitous details.
The "kicking" here is being done by Adam Smith's invisible hand (yes, mixed metaphor, but you know) and not the telling of the story. No apologies or soul searching required.
Fredtobik said, "Just remember there is a human side to things, personally I wouldn't want the social consequences of something like this on my concious, the risk far outweighs the reward."
What about the social consequences from all the greed and corrupt practices that have led us to this place?
What about the social consequences of an average family not being able to even dream about owning a house in Marin?
What about the social consequences of having all of the Police/Firefighters/Teachers not being able to afford to live where they serve?
Hey Marinite, show me those houses, tell me there is hope.
fredtobik said:
If your idea of greater good is to prevent people from doing the same thing in the future, then I guess the end justifies the means for you?
Did the end justify the means for all the RE brokers and the mortgage loan officers who have made a killing in the last few years? What about the newspaper journalists who were selling ads to the RE agents? Did their vicious lies justify this end result?
Put simply: I am a teacher. I cannot afford California. I am considering leaving the state to go somewhere that I could have a little more spendable income each month. The state is losing talented young people like me daily beacause things are so out of line. Who is holding those RE brokers and mortgage folks accountable for their means/ends? Oh yeah, MARINITE!!! The more she posts, the more their lies become transparent, and the better our chances of this ridiculous cycle of theirs coming to an end before it's (if it's not already) too late.
I'd like for anyone to argue that the means used by the RE brokers, etc. were ever justified. Can anyone vouch for any one of them who stopped to consider the undeniable end to their shady behavior before selling out the masses? Did the industry as a whole demonstrate even HALF so much caution as our fearless blogger??
Bottom line: Marinite's means to acheiving her goal is FAR less harmful/intrusive than the means resorted to by brokers of the industry. In this case only the few subjects of the posts, on an individual basis, will feel the pain and embarrassment of having made a bad decision. Contrarily, the bad behavior/decisions contrived by RE/associates and greed mongers, will harm an entire state's worth of citizens.
Morality is all relative, I guess.
Ali- great thoughts.
This information was used by RE industry to advise their clients on pricing and offers... good lord... they used this information to protect the homedebting pyramid scheme and to keep the money flowing into their pockets. They would see what the FB owed and advise to make an offer that covered those costs!!!! They refused to call out the foul balls, and they hit plenty of their own in flat out lying to people.
This information should be used to protect the public from financial folly... but instead it has been used by the RE professionals, to perpetuate the largest institutionalized ponzi scheme I can think of...
This information should now be used as a means to inform the public so they can be armed to protect themselves. There will be those who don't wish to protect themselves, and that is fine... at least the information was readily available.
Marinite is doing a great service and I think we will begin doing a similar service for Sonoma County.
Keep it up Marinite!
Not sure I'm buying the analysis that the "industry" concocted some pyramid scheme etc. etc. Banks came up with loans to fit our crazy high valuations. Beyond that it is a series of discrete transactions, each person on either side of the deal has to calculate their own risks and rewards. You are the only one looking out for your own best interests.
Yes, it is very damn expensive here. That sucks in many ways, especially when it limits the types of people that make up a community. But that is what happens in desireable communities around the country. Not too many police or teachers buying houses in Greenwhich CT, Aspen CO, Rye NY, Del Mar CA etc.
Still, I think blaming the "industry" for doing their jobs is misplaced. How about the public officials for not creating more low income housing units. Or society at large for the paltry salaries we pay to teachers, police etc?
BTW, I'm not in the industry and most of my relatives are teachers, cops or firemen.
No line has been crossed, IMHO.
This blog probably provides some promotional services (not indented to) because this particular house went into escrow last weekend. One of the very few houses in Marin that has been sold lately. What do you say?
Marinite, kudos for considering the opinions of the minority of us who just thought this was not necessary to make your point.
It was necessary so as to bust certain myths about Marin. It will continue to be necessary I'm afraid.
because this particular house went into escrow last weekend
I noticed that too. Either fortuitous timing or someone owes me a finder's fee. LOL!
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