Friday, August 11, 2006

Shoreline Change

Ok, the "cooling-off" period is over...literally...

On this blog we've talked about which areas in Marin are most at risk to earthquakes and liquefaction. What about global warming? Global warming is obviously happening. By some accounts we are very close to if not already passed the "point of no return". Glaciers are retreating at a rapid rate. Antarctic ice shelves are disintegrating. Sea level rise and shoreline change are inevitable. How will this affect Marin and, more to the point, which overpriced Marin POSs are most at risk?

Well, I have yet to find anything on this topic specific to Marin or that shows the information in the way I'd like for the Bay Area. But try these on for size:
  • Here is an animation showing the effects on New York city of just one meter of sea level rise. Pretty shocking. You can find other such animations here.
  • Here is an animation showing flooding in the Bay Area due to just one meter of sea level rise. Unfortunately, you can only barely see Marin at the top.
  • Here is a series of maps showing the amount of coastal flooding on the East Coast that can be expected from sea level rise (also shown below). Would the West Coast be any different?
The point is that the most densely populated areas in Marin County (and some of the most expensive -- Belvedere lagoon, Stinson, etc.) are barely above sea level; they will become inundated. Property will become worthless. In their questionable wisdom, our lending institutions have made available 40-year loans; 50- or even 100-year loans are not out of the question. Anyone who buys property in Marin and intends to hold for the long term or even bequeath property to their heirs must take into consideration whether said property will be underwater in the future and how accessible it will be to contiguous areas of the remaining dry land.


And just for "fun", here is what the world will look like after 100 meters of sea level rise.

3 Comments:

Blogger jmf said...

great from germany.

the cooling off was really long enough :-)

http://www.immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

Aug 12, 2006, 5:15:00 AM  
Anonymous trailer trash said...

"Anyone who buys property in Marin and intends to hold for the long term or even bequeath property to their heirs must take into consideration whether said property will be underwater in the future and how accessible it will be to contiguous areas of the remaining dry land."

With the exception of some underwater Florida real-estate sold during the early 1920s, submerged properties tend to be worthless. On the other hand, land which remains above the high water mark -- while surrounding properties become deluged -- will probably increase in value.

Aug 12, 2006, 10:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

See, they AREN'T making anymore land!!

Aug 13, 2006, 8:56:00 AM  

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home

Terms of Use: The purpose of the Marin Real Estate Bubble weblog (located at URL http://marinrealestatebubble.blogspot.com/ and henceforth referred to as “MREB” or “this site”) is to present and discuss information relating to real estate and the real estate industry in general (locally, state-wide, nationally, and internationally) as it pertains to the thesis that recent real estate related activity is properly characterized as a “speculative mania” or a “bubble”. MREB is a non-profit, community site that depends on community participation and feedback. While MREB administrators do strive to confirm all information presented here and qualify all doubtful items, the information presented at MREB is neither definitive nor should it be construed as professional advice. All information published on MREB is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind and the administrators of this site shall not be liable for any direct or indirect damages arising out of use of this site. This site is moderated by MREB administrators and the MREB administrators reserve the right to edit, remove, or refuse postings that are off-topic, defamatory, libelous, offensive, or otherwise deemed inappropriate by MREB administrators. You should consult a finance professional before making any decisions based on information found on this site.

The contributors to this site may, from time to time, hold short (or long) positions in mentioned and related companies.