Sunday, September 10, 2006

Back-Peddling Lereah

David Lereah is a lying rat-bastard if ever there was one. I'm sorry to have to say it that way but this claim* of his is pure, unadulterated BS. Now that the "housing market is so far gone that ‘it’s not rescuable anymore'", Lereah is back-peddling** big-time [underlining is mine]:

Lereah and his fellow housing industry economists don’t come out unscathed. Critics say they generated unfounded optimism that the housing market would soar perpetually. Lereah counters that he has been forecasting a change for some time. ‘I’ve been wrong for three years in a row. I’ve said we’re about to get a correction. For three years, I’ve said, ‘This is the year that sales will come down.

‘But now, it’s not because mortgage rates went up, it’s because of the psychology of the marketplace,’ he said. ‘The prices just got too high.’

Yeah, sure, you've been warning about a correction for the last three years. Sure you have. Uh-huh. Not according to this blog which has been keeping track of what you do say. Or what about this well earned caricature? What about your two books promising fantastic wealth from housing through the end of the decade and shaming those people who don't fall for it? No one who has been paying any attention at all and who has more than a five minute attention span should fall for this crap and certainly not let him and his cronies off the hook.

David Lereah: you are in need of some serious butt-whooping. It's time to get medieval on the RE industry.

It used to be that lawyers were the butt of corruption jokes. Who wants to bet that the next ten years will contain lots of real estate agent jokes?

I really, really hope this corrupt real estate industry gets burned at the stake. Of course, they are not the only ones who should be so treated, but this is a RE blog after all.

*This article is about the obvious existence of the bubble, the fact that it is now busting, and the real estate industry's claim that it is the media's fault for the bubble's busting due to its printing of negative articles. I guess it is OK to Lereah and his corrupt minions that the media printed positive, cheerleading articles on the way up.

Hypocrites all.

No, the real reason why the housing bubble is bursting is because it is a bubble in the speculative mania sense which you have repeatedly denied for years Mr. Lereah. I mean, over-priced POSs like these are the "WTF.coms" of the recent tech bubble. And like all bubbles throughout history it is bursting not because of interest rates, not because people like me have had enough with the cheerleading BS being spewed by the main stream media and people like you and so we have chosen to write about it; it's bursting because there are no more greater fools out there; it is fully vested and prices have no where else to go but down. But instead of caring about the general public's best interests, you and your hundreds of thousands of cronies have pimped this thing to such absurd levels that there is no other way but down. You and all other vested interests caused this bubble and if the world was a fairer place you would be punished. But instead, communities and average Americans will take the hit and everyone, those who played the game and those who knew enough to stay out, will have to pay for it one way or the other.

Sorry to rant. Now back to our regularly scheduled program.

**Update: "Back-Peddling" as in "back-pedaling" while at the same time trying to sell to the unwary populace a new line of lies.


Anonymous Anonymous said...


I LOVE it! You've coined a new term.

Sep 10, 2006, 6:48:00 PM  
Blogger B. Durbin said...

I don't normally make spelling comments, but this one gives you a new and interesting slant on the article.

"Back-Peddling Lereah"— to back-pedal would be the usual term, as "peddling" is to sell wares, instead of "pedaling" as in bicycle. However, by use of that term, we have the implication that Lereah is trying to sell us on his version of events, which is wholly approprite.

A neologism, perhaps?

Sep 10, 2006, 8:29:00 PM  
Blogger David said...


Thanks for the mention. I was very happy about the reference in the Chicago Tribune to my David Lereah Watch Blog

" Lereah and his fellow housing industry economists don't come out unscathed. Critics say they generated unfounded optimism that the housing market would soar perpetually.

"In October 2005 Lereah was busy calling the bubble believers `Chicken Littles,'" goes one post in a blog dedicated to criticizing the economist, "Many of the predictions espoused by the `Chicken Littles' are fast becoming closer to reality. ... David Lereah has lost credibility because of his irresponsible cheerleading.""

I spoke with Mary over the phone for 25 minutes.

Sep 10, 2006, 9:13:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


The guy's a salesman! Of course he's only going to talk well of his product.

This is all completely predictable, in fact, it's his job.

Two points will mean we are in full crash:

1) Cover of Time or Newsweek saying "HOUSING CRASH", in those exact words

2) Interviews within with whiney families holding one baby, and one toddler saying, "How could this happen? This is America?"

Welcome to the party pal! We're just polishing brass on the Titanic. It's ALL going down!

While the GWbmint was busy trying to bring "freedom" to the rest of the word, we all ended up enslaved by money.

Sep 10, 2006, 9:24:00 PM  
Blogger giantaxe said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

Sep 10, 2006, 9:43:00 PM  
Blogger giantaxe said...

Lereah is simply being a lying sack of shit now that the market is changing. After all, it's only a year ago that NAR put out its anti-bubble propaganda for its realtors to use to claim that there was "no bubble". Now he's claiming that he's been expecting a downturn for three years. Sure, David...

Sep 10, 2006, 9:46:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Two thoughts:

1. On a prior blog you made a reference (to subjecting unethical people) to the "modern-day equivalent of tar and feathering." That made me wonder, what is wrong with tar and feathering?

2. Boy, don't Realtors make lawyers look like choir boys?

Sep 10, 2006, 10:11:00 PM  
Blogger Athena said...

Great post marinite. I think when all is said and done on this crash realtors will be the new scaliwags. Sheesh... lawyers at least have to get an education to be one of the such maligned club... its completely gross that this group that had led the great unwashed like pied-pipers for the last few years only needed a number two pencil and a couple hours. And the masses they followed... I don't think it will be the likes of us that will do the equivalent of social tar and feathering of these soon to be fungus amongus... the resentful masses who were gullible and now financially liable will get to them first.

Sep 10, 2006, 11:20:00 PM  
Blogger marine_explorer said...

"Who wants to bet that the next ten years will contain lots of real estate agent jokes?"
"...the resentful masses who were gullible and now financially liable will get to them first."

Additionally, who wants to bet that in a not too distant future, people will be loathe to pay their unwarranted sales comissions? The NAR brought this upon itself.

Sep 10, 2006, 11:32:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

as suggested in another thread:

Sep 11, 2006, 6:43:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

As a lawyer, I'm happy to see that our admittedly well-deserved joke tenure may be winding down in favor of real estate agents. Frankly, I've never seen another group of "professionals" act the way agents and brokers do. With relatively scant education, these folks hit the streets acting like they know it all, often screwing their clients in the process. Of course, this was easier when the market was hot and anyone with a pulse and a license could list and sell in just days. What I've noticed over the years, in multiple cities and states, is that real estate agents, on average, are much more focused on the deal from their perspective than those of their clients. What can I do to make the transaction work well for ME? (ie let's lock in a higher selling price to keep the averages and commissions up, never mind the property tax bill my client has to pay every year)... I'm actually working a case now involving agents, brokers and an escrow company that all withheld a negative inspection report from the buyer to allow the transaction to close as planned. My clients were led into a trust-based relationship with these people, only to be defrauded. Caveat emptor, and let the jokes begin!

Sep 11, 2006, 7:31:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Marin... thanks for the great site! Question for you or anyone else kind enough to answer me.

I have been waiting about 3 years to purchase a house. While ive been waiting, prices have jumped about 100k+ per year.

Now that the bubble is OVER. When do you think i will be able to "safely" shop for a home. Im on long island and i REALLY want to buy my own home.

When should i start looking.

Thanks for any input in advance.


Sep 11, 2006, 7:55:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

hanover_fist -


Sep 11, 2006, 9:48:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

As a lawyer, I'm happy to see that our admittedly well-deserved joke tenure may be winding down in favor of real estate agents.

FWIW, my father was a lawyer in SFO and there never was a more honest and hard-working man. Lawyer jokes have always been tongue-in-cheek for me. In this post I just could not think of any other profession that was the subject of a lot of jokes. I don't know why. I can now.

Sep 11, 2006, 9:51:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

A neologism, perhaps?

I did it on purpose. I've seen it before, thought it was clever, and so used it; so I cannot claim to have invented the term.

Sep 11, 2006, 9:57:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

David -

Your "David Lereah Watch Blog" is awesome and I am so glad that you were the one to pick up the torch and start it back when we (bloggers) were discussing the idea way back when. That blog is now proving its worth as predicted.

Sep 11, 2006, 10:10:00 AM  
Blogger marine_explorer said...


LOL...was that our original image, Marinite? The sock is a nice addition!

And if I had the right software, I'd put Lereah's face on this rider:
It's somehow fitting.

Sep 11, 2006, 12:25:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...

LOL...was that our original image, Marinite? The sock is a nice addition!

Back when we (you) were making the amalgam of Baghdad Bob and Lereah, someone later suggested adding a sock puppet and Lereah's book. No one took him up on that suggestion until now.

Sep 11, 2006, 12:38:00 PM  
Blogger marine_explorer said...

No one took him up on that suggestion until now.

Well good job!

Sep 11, 2006, 12:47:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Two words: PROFESSIONAL liar. Pause for a moment and let that sink in because it is the literal truth in his case.

Now to the joke;

Q: How do we know when David L. is lying?

A: His lips are moving.

Sep 11, 2006, 1:20:00 PM  
Blogger Short Stories said...

Now that picture reminds me of something, hmmmm...

Sep 11, 2006, 2:33:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...

The HEAT Index is at 0.46 today...a new all time low. These new all time lows are getting very frequent.

Sep 11, 2006, 4:49:00 PM  
Blogger Charles Turner said...

Headline: Realtor Teeters on Edge of Falling into Vat of Tar; Bloggers Wait Patiently to Apply Feathers.

I’m a Realtor in Portland, Oregon, write I’m a Realtor in Portland, Oregon, write

The Portland Real Estate Blog
, and grew up in Marin. I have an MBA and my wife is also a Realtor.. Portland’s “bubble” is largely cushioned by Californians fleeing for something more affordable though the market is cooling (I could go on but it is a subject for a different time).

I recently posted “So You Want to be a Realtor.” Anonymous hits the nail on the head: barriers to entry for real estate are too low. The industry allowed it to happen and is going to pay the price. The good news is that as “easy money” becomes a harder proposition, a lot of stupid Realtors will be forced to join other portions of the workforce (scary thought).

The other component to this thread is ethics. I’m not qualified to comment on David Lereah so won’t. Either you have ethics or you don’t. My job and my income require that I sell homes. It’s hard to tell someone not to do something when it hits your bottom line but sometimes I have to. C’est la vie. I wouldn’t want to do this if I had to question myself everyday but I don’t have to. Sometimes we turn clients away because we don’t like what we are being asked to do. I think any attorney (ethical) will tell you the same.

The real estate industry brought a lot of this on themselves, no doubt. The client, in search of the easy buck, has also perpetuated the mess by not seriously interviewing the agent that they entrust a major financial transaction to. Clients often don’t want to hear the truth and will go find a Realtor that will tell them what they want to hear. Agency laws that allow an agent to represent both sides of the transaction should be banned. We won’t do it. I will probably burn in Realtor hell for that statement.

Not every Realtor is the same. Understand that and you’ve contributed to the cure.

Sep 11, 2006, 8:06:00 PM  
Blogger Charles Turner said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

Sep 11, 2006, 8:09:00 PM  
Blogger David Cooper said...

Economist David Learah, PHD, University of Virginia needs a refresher course on ethics, or don't they teach that at UofV, and any Economic Societies that allow this scumbag to be a member should review their standards of conduct

Sep 11, 2006, 9:25:00 PM  

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