Tuesday, September 19, 2006
Schiff Video - 5 Years of Appreciation to be Erased
Euro Pacific Capital's Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff predicts a recession in 2007 and argues in this Bloomberg video (19 minutes duration; give it time to load) that 'All of the home price appreciation of the last 5 or 6 years will be erased.' I loved seeing the interviewer spew the popular talking points and then squirm in response to Schiff's reasoning.
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7 comments:
the video link's not working...
:(
is it just my bad luck?
Ok, found it on my own. One word: YIKES!
Isn't this one the guy who believes gold and oil are still on the upswing? I think he's a bit too negative and stuck in the past few years. There's surely a downward trend in US vs. the rest of the world over the next 30 years, but it'll take time for that to play out.
Marinite -- You should listen to the audio clip at the bottom of this link:
http://www.centralvalleybusinesstimes.com/stories/001/?ID=3053
(or, go to housebubble.com and click on "California housing bubble about to burst" 9/19/2006)
The guy is an "urgent sale" RE agent who talks about 20% drops in some areas very soon, how inventory is surpassing his ability to handle it, and sounds totally shaken! Just listen to his voice!!!
I saw the video, and he's pretty bullish on Asia, which may be warranted, but we should remember their success story is partially due our credit-fueled consumption. If we go down, they're going to feel it.
Nonwithstanding, I'm hearing more people in the media discussing a price rollback of several years in RE.
Right, I stopped watching it after 6 minutes when supply side dogma started spewing out, and he begain to imposing what people should economically value (Americans and Chinese), which is contradictory to an appreciation of the free market.
He made some good points, like the purchasing power and standard of living of the Chinese is impaired by a fixed Yuan against the dollar, but overall I disagree with his fundamental assumptions about the mechanics of the marketplace.
BTW-- what happened to Ben's Housing Bubble Blog?
BTW-- what happened to Ben's Housing Bubble Blog?
His blog was down all of yesterday and is still unavailable. It looks like an issue with WordPress.
Schiff seems a little too doom and gloom to be believable. After the tech bubble burst, I remember seeing an article in either NYT or WSJ showing that recessions are occurring more frequently, but lasting for shorter periods of time.
I agree with Schiff on some points, but his general take reminds me of a doctor who was interviewed on NPR this time last year regarding Avian Flu: he said "6 months from now you won't recognize this planet-- 30 million people will be dead" - from avian flu. Would love to know where that guy is now.
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