However, here are a couple of graphs that you have seen before but I've since updated. The first graph shows the number of Marin SFRs currently listed on ZipRealty (search range: any size, $100,000 to $10,000,000 asking price, all of Marin County). The data missing between November and December of 2005 is because it looked to me at that time that the number of listings wasn't changing (and so was not interesting) and so I stopped collecting data. Notice the spike in the number of listings after Labor Day; on a daily basis SFR inventory is about 40% above this time last year according to ZipRealty (although some agents are reporting more like 70%; depends on what's included in the sample):
Below is the percentage of SFRs currently marked as "Price Reduced" according to ZipRealty. The drop-off after Labor Day is due to the spike in inventory mentioned above. I am certain that percentage will return to about the 45% mark or so after the flood of new listings sit on the market for a while:
And here is the latest Marin "HEAT" Index...a new all-time low of 0.49:
6 comments:
"; the bubble blogosphere is indeed inhabited by some very talented and hard-working individuals; I am surrounded by giants."
Thanks. You are also a BubbleSphere giant.
David
Bubble Meter Blog
So it's 49 now? Perhaps we should have a pool on how low it will go. I'll wager it will hit 45 before Thanksgiving.
I expect a doubling of the inventory in Marin by next spring.
I have talked to me realtor "friends" who are reporting being solicited by a large number of would be seller on a daily basis.....the meltdown has officially started, seat down and "enjoy" the ride.
Just remember what attracted most people to marin was the school system. This system will not stay as good if property tax revenues decline further decreasing the demand for homes in Marin.
This tax discussion... huh? The school systems have been running before pre 2001 bubble pricing times. It's happened before.
It is easier to adjust to more tax revenues than to less. The fat will have to removed or instead we will have increase class sizes and elimination all non-necessary programs. Guess what will happen? Those who can afford it will pull their kids into private schools and school donations will new lows....and on and on and on.
So while i did not see anything good in housing increasing in price so fast I just can not see what a crah will give us except for the few speculators seating on the sidelines with cash.
I'll wager it will hit 45 before Thanksgiving.
And I think you would be right...it's at 0.46 as of this date (9/11/06).
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