Tuesday, September 05, 2006

A New Low for the Marin HEAT Index

The now infamously mislabeled Marin "HEAT" Index has reached a new all-time low of 0.51:

This puts a new spin on the phrase "a snowball's chance in Hell". Bring it on, here's how.


Blogger marine_explorer said...

Any guesses what it will be next spring-summer?

Sep 5, 2006, 12:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


Sep 5, 2006, 1:52:00 PM  
Blogger sf jack said...

It's the Marin COLD Index(tm)!

I can't even guess where it might be next spring-summer.

People with a real "need to move" circumstance excluded, there a lot of dumbasses out there thinking they are going to buy relatively soon (because they will mistakenly think it's near a bottom in the next year or two). There certainly were enough of them out there on the way up - buying with the expectation of equity gains forever.

Save for Bernanke firing up the helicopter, I will guess and say the COLD Index(tm) is not going to be anywhere near its high for probably close to a decade.

Sep 5, 2006, 2:30:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

0.49 on Sept 6.

While this may be good for those seating with cash and waiting to enter the market this will be bad for the economy especially schools and other municipal services that count on property taxes and transfer taxes to survive.

If the schools of Marin loose some of their income will Marin loose its appeal pushing prices down further?

Also, if I buy a house for cheaper than it was last purchased, does the assessed value and therefore the taxes go down automatically under prop 13?

Sep 6, 2006, 9:00:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

especially schools and other municipal services that count on property taxes and transfer taxes to survive.

Here's something I don't get: despite all that tax revenue the county must get, why all the shoddy roads and old infrastructure? I know one neighborhood in particular where each homeowner must fork out $25K of their own money to bury power lines. If Marin is so "upscale", most of the county sure doesn't look it. What does the county do with its money?!

Sep 6, 2006, 10:10:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ross valley,

I, like you, do not understand it.
Homes have been selling for sometimes as much as 10 times their old appraisal value.
In other words tax revenues must have gone up significantly and yet I do not see it in the infrastucture.
Now the appraisals will go down and the county will cry for more money.

Sep 6, 2006, 11:38:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

why all the shoddy roads and old infrastructure

Just a guess:

1. Marin does not have a huge population.
2. People are disincentivised to sell their houses.
3. Political...whenever something is proposed to change (e.g., a building built, an overpass expanded, etc.) a boatload of people come out of the woods to block it for all sorts of nimby reasons.

Sep 6, 2006, 1:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Regarding the tax revenues, I've been told that most of the property taxes actually go to the state first, then what is left trickles back to local governments. If that is the case + the past reality of our State's budget = not too much left over.

Sep 6, 2006, 1:52:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

However many tax draws do go directly to local initiatives. Look at what is in the disclosure packet of any RE deal. There can be a laundry list of special taxes beyond property tax - and some of them are percentages.

So yes - the money is mismanaged on both sides.

Sep 6, 2006, 2:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

a lot of folks will be thinking it is .357,or maybe 9mm by next fall.

Sep 6, 2006, 2:19:00 PM  

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