Monday, September 11, 2006

Local Broker Slams This Blog

Update 9/14/06: It looks like comments were turned back on at Mr. Carreiro's blog on 9/13/06 and remain on today.

Update 9/12/06 #2: As of at least 08:31:39 PM Mr. Carreiro has turned off the ability to leave comments on his blog.

Update 9/12/06: Mr. Carreiro has now turned on comments on his blog. Have at it.

Lander, owner of the Sacramento Land(ing) blog, brought to my attention Mr. Warren Carreiro's (a Marin real estate broker located in San Rafael) blog entry about me and my Marin Real Estate Bubble blog. Lander: thank you as this is priceless.

A screen shot of Mr. Carreiro's post about my blog follows (I chose to use a screen shot instead of my usual textual quote on the off chance that he decides to change his blog entry after reading this post):

Click on the image for a larger view.

Where to begin?

Well, first of all Mr. Carreiro says he doesn't want to link to my blog for fear of 'giving me more exposure'. If this blog is so terribly wrong, why would he be afraid of giving me more exposure? If anything, giving me more exposure would just make me look like a bigger fool than he thinks that I already am. And besides, what's wrong with having a forum in which people can freely express their opinions and share facts about Marin's real estate market? Isn't Mr. Carreiro agreeable to the idea of open and public debate and discussion on this topic? The last time I checked freedom of speech is still Amendment numero uno to the U.S. Constitution as written in the Bill of Rights. Maybe he really isn't in favor of open public discussion as I notice that he has comments turned off on his blog.

No, I think the real reason why Mr. Carreiro does not want to risk increasing my exposure is because he is threatened by me and my blog.

Mr. Carreiro then makes a point of reminding us that I have chosen to remain anonymous and that therefore he cannot determine my motivation... a "motivation behind a blogger that is trying to create a real estate bubble". First of all, my motivation is clear to anyone who has bothered to read my blog. Second of all, the claim that my blog could actually "create a real estate bubble" is ludicrous in the extreme and shows just how intellectually careless this individual is. I'm sorry, but there is no way one blog could affect a market in any significant way. Furthermore, if Mr. Carreiro had actually taken the time to read my blog, then it would be patently obvious to him that creating a housing bubble is the very last thing in the world that I would wish upon any community. And even if my blog could actually significantly affect the Marin housing market, does anyone really wonder why I might want to remain anonymous?

No, the real reason why people like him want to know my personal details is in the vain hope that they might find some conflict of interest or some bit of dirt that they could use to conveniently dismiss this blog. It's as simple as that. As discussed below, there is no conflict of interest nor is there any dirt.

Ok, moving right along... Mr. Carreiro then says "Maybe this person lost his home and now the value is twice as high, who knows". Yes, who knows? Certainly not you Mr. Carreiro. You know, I am really getting tired of people making up stories about me. First it was Jack McLaughlin and now this loser. No, on second thought I'm getting really pissed off about it. Some of these theories about me are getting just plain ridiculous and this one by Mr. Carreiro takes the cake. The reasons why I don't say much about myself are not only out of a sense of personal privacy, which I think any human being can appreciate, but also because such details are totally irrelevant. People should judge what I say on this blog based on the merits of what I say and not based on whether I own a house or how much money I've made or lost on my house. Unlike Mr. Carreiro, I have no financial stake whatsoever in the performance of our local housing market nor am I in any way affiliated with the housing industry in Marin. The means by which I make a living have absolutely nothing to do with real estate and as such is totally unaffected by how well real estate performs. My opinion about real estate is completely unaffected by how well Marin real estate performs which is more than I can say of Mr. Carreiro, a Marin real estate broker, whose livelihood is derived from selling real estate.

Furthermore, Mr. Carreiro seems to be claiming moral superiority vis-à-vis my anonymity by identifying himself by name. All I can do is scoff in disgust. Of course you identify yourself by name Mr. Carreiro...that's how you make a living for Christ's sake! If you didn't identify yourself on your blog and associate your name with the fact that you are a real estate broker, then you would be doing yourself a disservice as it would result in that much less business for yourself. Self-promotion is how people like you make a living.

Ok, next up... Mr. Carreiro questions that some of the latest numbers shown on this blog came from DataQuick. Now this really hurts as it strikes directly at my integrity. Never mind the fact that I provided a link...as I always do. Mr. Carreiro: did you actually read that blog entry? Here is my blog entry that Mr. Carreiro is talking about. And here is the link to DataQuick. Sorry to burst your bubble Mr. Carreiro, but according to DataQuick the Marin real estate market was down year-over-year -6.61% in July. I posted a screen shot of the relevant part of the table so that if that DataQuick page ever gets taken down (and my link to it goes stale), then at least we always have the screen shot.

I am, quite frankly, very offended that he seems to be implying that the numbers I have posted are a lie. I have never lied on my blog and I have absolutely no intention of ever lying on my blog. Doing so is counter to my purpose. I may make a mistake or two (I'm only human after all) but I do try hard to keep mistakes at a minimum. As for my opinion posts, well, they are just that...my opinion.

"...the sky is not falling." True. Not yet anyway.

Am I wrong? Share your thoughts.

If you would like to personally give Mr. Carreiro a piece of your mind, you will have to email him as comments have conveniently been turned off on his blog. You can find his email links in various locations on this page.

100 Comments:

Blogger fredtobik said...

", the real reason why people like him want to know my personal details is in the vain hope that they might find some conflict of interest or some bit of dirt that they could use to conveniently dismiss this blog"

Exactly!

Calm down, exposing buttons just allows people to press them, relax, get to Moylans and have a KiltLifter.

Sep 11, 2006, 8:59:00 PM  
Blogger clemente619 said...

Marinite,

Take this as a confirmation that what you've been saying here on your blog is coming to pass. The realtors are feeling the changing market and it's getting to them. I think that's the main point.

Now, there are other elements to this, such as Warren Carreiro appears to be . . . how do I say this gently? . . . of questionable wit, lacking in cognitive acumen, possibly a mendacious melon head. But it would be gratuitous to mention such obvious traits publicly.

Don’t let melon heads with declining sales and blighted prospects get to you.

Sep 11, 2006, 9:17:00 PM  
Blogger synchro9898 said...

You go!...girl? boy? Whatever gender you are.

You do seem a little thin-faced though. By writing a blog, you're a public persona, whether you like it or not. That means people will be taking a potshots are you

Sep 11, 2006, 9:31:00 PM  
Blogger diemos said...

Hee, hee.

Can't you just smell the fear and desperation.

Sep 11, 2006, 9:49:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You see a lot of this going around. Realtwhores lashing out at the blogs! What nonsense. If things weren't exactly as bad as the bloggers claim these guys would be too busy selling houses to give any attention to the bloggers.

Just look at the NAR shills as they make their humiliating climbdown from their 'soft landing' positions. If the economy weren't beng destroyed I'd be enjoying this.

Sep 11, 2006, 9:52:00 PM  
Anonymous Wren said...

Ah, yes. That tired old saw about negative publicity being the cause of (or, I suppose in this Realtwhore's view, attempted cause) of the market's movement.

Don't pay any attention.

Sep 11, 2006, 9:59:00 PM  
Anonymous SF Mechanist said...

Marinite,

Just let it slide. Fugetabouddit! You've been sharp-tongued toward a few people yourself in your blogging career.

But even more important, you are taking this development entirely the wrong way. As they say: "There is no such thing as bad press."

Next time you get public hate mail, or whatever, post it for all of us to laugh at, and maybe make some humorous quip about the guy's toupee, and leave it at that.

:)

Sep 11, 2006, 10:29:00 PM  
Anonymous trailer trash said...

San Rafael real estate broker Warren Carreiro sez, "The market is looking good and buyers have some good deals but the sky is not falling."

Jeeze Louise! I wonder if this guy would be willing to share his medication with me. My doctor is out of town and I won't be able to get my prescription refilled until next week.

Meanwhile, back on Earth, I just took a quick peek at the Craigslist north bay real estate listing, which includes Marin and Sonoma County towns, such as Corte Madera, Sonoma, Mill Valley, San Rafael and Santa Rosa. After entering the search word "reduced", up came 120 listings. Admittedly, some of these listing are duplicated.

But, quite a few of these sellers seem to be on edge: "$409000 PRICE REDUCED ~ AGAIN on Waterfront Home. Motivated", "$950000 REDUCED $100K Beautifully remodeled home in Homestead Valley" and "$229000 Reduced Price, Seller Financing!!!"

Well, as Mr. Carreiro points out, the sky is not falling, but house prices sure are.

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/nby/rfs/

Sep 11, 2006, 10:34:00 PM  
Blogger Athena said...

"intellectually careless"

Oh honey, this broker is more than intellectually careless. He is intellectually bankrupt. Pay him no mind.

If he has clients that are half-witted enough to fall for such a pathetic and petulant "will whine for commission" pitch... then they deserve him.

Hang in there, this is nothing but a confirmation of your integrity, and that you are right!

Sep 11, 2006, 10:37:00 PM  
Blogger marin_explorer said...

“we don’t know the motivation behind a blogger that is trying to create a real estate bubble”

I always find this collective "we" amusing, and as you so aptly pointed out, we didn't engineer this thing.
Priceless!

“too bad, it’s not working; we have a nice soft landing, thank you.”

Oh really? What a great opportunity to debunk this naivete.

Sep 11, 2006, 10:54:00 PM  
Blogger Mikhail said...

Actually, I think Messr Carreiro has a point. If all the bubblesitters (like myself) decided that we really do need to go out and buy to ensure we never get "priced out", the endless real-estate appreciation would last a little longer.

Perception, to a certain degree, IS reality. By this logic, everyone has a DUTY to believe!

Unfortunately, I just can't let myself go down this mental path. I agree that positive thinking can actually change the real world (provided EVERYONE buys into it). But it's all too Orwellian for me.

To take this from another angle, I really do believe that the conservatives who were livid at the peace movement for "losing" the war in Vietnam are partly right. If the North Vietnamese really thought that EVERYONE in America was 100% behind the war, they might have been willing to negotiate a serious peace.

On the other hand, I am sure I would have been in the front of the anti-war protest lines at the time (if I had been old enough to read at the time).

Yes, progoganda, and blind believers can move mountains (I admit it), but that doesn't mean I want to be a part of it.

Sep 11, 2006, 10:54:00 PM  
Anonymous roberta said...

Warren Carreiro's business will be really hurting when the Marin Real Estate market does crash. He may end up out of work or be filing for bankruptcy.

It's totally delusional to think that these prices will continue to rise at their current rate or even remain flat.

All economic Booms despite what industry they are in are followed by a Bust. This has happened 100% of the time through out history.

Sep 11, 2006, 11:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Marinite,

Clearly you run circles around this guy intellectually, and he probably doesn't have a very clear understanding of economics either. Yet another ostrich hiding his head in the sand, wonder who he will blame in the aftermath of the bubble...probably the bloggers! Agree with all your points on personal privacy, keep blogging!

Sep 12, 2006, 12:49:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good to respond to the guy's inane comments, but don't let the criticism get to you. As someone else said, if you're gonna dish it, you're gonna have to expect some in return. But rather than get pissed off, delight in the fact that you are obviously getting to the other guy who's only making a fool of himself.

Sep 12, 2006, 1:07:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

... and I meant to add - keep it up! This (and MarinPOS) is the only blog I read.

Thanks!

Sep 12, 2006, 1:09:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Warren, the RE man has to keep whistling past the housing graveyard to get his money home. Halloween is coming and the dreaded repo-man and other haunting housing goblins are demanding their payments.

Hey warren....BOO !!!

Sep 12, 2006, 6:02:00 AM  
Blogger Bakersfield Bubble said...

BAHAHAHHA!

This guy is quacking in his boots! When prices were going up no one attacked bloggers, now let's kill the messenger? Way to go Marinite you have this guy and the rest of the Marin REIC worried.


crispy&cole

Sep 12, 2006, 6:56:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Last year I sold my home in Marin for $300K more than a realtor recommended I sell it for. This happened after a bidding war from preemptive bids!!
The realtor is an extremely well known person in Marin. While I do not doubt his honesty, I came to question it and realize now that he gave me the true assesment of my home and not that of a crazy uncontrolled bubbly market.
I expect the value of the home will drift back to the price he recommended.

Sep 12, 2006, 7:06:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Had to laugh at the Craigs List listing from a realtor who's now seeming a bit desperate to show the house. If you show up to the open house, you can win tickets to the Mill Valley film festival!!! Ooh - I was waiting for lower prices, but now you've really motivated me!!! See: "$1098000 See A Great House & Win Tix to the Film Fest (mill valley)" - I don't know where this Warren dude is looking these days, but I don't recall seeing cheap gimmies offered for attending open houses several months back... I'm in Mill Valley, Warren, where this past weekend the number of open house signs along Shoreline reminded me of what I've been seeing in Novato for months! Even my kids noticed how many signs there were. Reality check time... Carry on, Marinite!

Sep 12, 2006, 7:13:00 AM  
Blogger Gasman said...

Have some pity on the Guy. He is probably watching his monthly income decline.

Its always stressful when ones expectations are not being met.

Sep 12, 2006, 8:15:00 AM  
Anonymous liz said...

Youv'e hit a raw nerve with this guy. If everything was still "dandy" and he was busy pimping houses he would not be wasting time attacking you & your blog.

These realtor have some nerve. Keep up the good work for the underdog Marin.

-liz

Sep 12, 2006, 8:29:00 AM  
Blogger Lisa said...

The GOP does the same thing. When reality doesn't sync with the party line, it's attack mode and change the subject.

Realtors will do anything to keep transactions going, as they don't generate income otherwise. And with sales down YOY, the herd is bound to get a little desperate.

Sep 12, 2006, 9:23:00 AM  
Anonymous Yooklid said...

Marinite -

Don't let this get to you. Your opinions are insightful, you're wit is cutting and you assesments spot on.

Don't let a bunch of straw man arguments, bait and switch tactics and ad hominum attacks from a blow hard yahoo get under your skin.

His "My name is Warren and I live in San Rapheal" will come back to haunt him.

Sep 12, 2006, 10:12:00 AM  
Blogger anon said...

Dear Warren Carreiro,

I'd love to buy a house at the moment, please could you outline the intangible benefits to living in Marin? At the moment the only one I can see on the horizion is cheaper housing the longer I wait....

All the other "benefits" will still be here 6 months, 6 years from now!

:-)

Sep 12, 2006, 10:21:00 AM  
Anonymous pothead said...

I like your blog, good info and it can be entertaining. This guy seems like a douchebag, but hey, it's his livelyhood so I'm not surprised by his stance.

However you're BLATANT DOUBLE STANDARD vis-a-vis privacy is lame. You say "The reasons why I don't say much about myself are not only out of a sense of personal privacy, which I think any human being can appreciate, but also because such details are totally irrelevant."

Then you end your piece with this: "If you would like to personally give Mr. Carreiro a piece of your mind, you will have to email him as comments have conveniently been turned off on his blog. You can find his email links in various locations on this page."

And this is a nice touch as well "Update 9/12/06: Mr. Carreiro has now turned on comments on his blog. Have at it."

So your privacy is sacrosact, but your OK with encouraging your readers to go harass someone at their workplace? Pathetic! How would you feel if someone did the same to you?

I think you should disclose a high level description of your participation, or non participation in the Marin Real Estate insanity. Something simple like Marinite lives in Marin and has owned a house for xx years or Marinite doesn't own and is waiting for prices to desecend to reality. Whatever, just clear the air.

Sep 12, 2006, 10:46:00 AM  
Anonymous Ben said...

Warren, practise this line carefully;
"Hi, my name is Warren, enjoy shopping at Walmart."

Sep 12, 2006, 10:56:00 AM  
Blogger anon said...

@pothead

Ermm dude you just proved Marinite's point.

He/She chooses to remain anonymous so folks can't harrass him/her. That's a choice.

A double standard would be Marinite getting upset if her/his identity were public.

If Mr Carreiro chooses to be a public figure (realtwhore) and chooses to diss someone "telling it like it is" he should expect the backlash when he's called on his BS.

Sep 12, 2006, 11:35:00 AM  
Anonymous pothead said...

yeah, I get that Marininte is making a choice to not share personal details. Fine by me, but I think it is pretty lame to then direct readers to go harass someone. That is a double standard by definition (a principle, rule, or expectation that is applied unfairly to different groups, one group usually being condemned for the slightest offense while the other is treated far more leniently).

Mind you, I think the guy comes off as a tool. Still, it's not cool to sick your readers on another blogger unless you're willing to have the same rules of engagement apply to you.

Sep 12, 2006, 11:50:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

pothead --

What are you smoking? (Sorry, couldn't resist.)

First of all, I do not choose to be anonymous so as not to have people make harrassing comments on this blog. Obviously, my anonymity does not prevent people leaving comments on this blog since I have comments turned on. People can leave whatever comments they want on my blog as long as they are decent and on-topic.

I choose to be anonymous so that people don't hunt me down and shoot me or deface my house or key my car or harass my children or something like that. Housing is an emotional topic for most people.

Second, I am not 'sicking readers' on that broker's blog. I am letting people know that he is now allowing comments and if anyone wants to leave a comment then it is now possible. As to the content of those comments, well, that is up to the person leaving the comment.

Sep 12, 2006, 12:00:00 PM  
Anonymous pothead said...

"I choose to be anonymous so that people don't hunt me down and shoot me or deface my house or key my car or harass my children or something like that. Housing is an emotional topic for most people."

Exactly, people are nuts. And granted, the guy is using his blog as a lead gen vehicle for his business. I guess he just has to deal with whatever happens eh?

Sep 12, 2006, 12:18:00 PM  
Blogger anon said...

@pothead

nobody made this guy post BS regarding this blog, nobody forced him into being a scumbag realtor, nobody made him do anything.

Marinite was posting a reply to his attack on his/her blog! Since when was that a crime / double standard etc?

Are you saying defending your blog and viewpoint anonymously is somehow a double standard?

Also Marinite never once suggested that this guy be hassled, only educated on where he is incorrect (6% v 1%) via e-mail.

P.S If you want to hassle Marinite in exactly the same way his/her e-mail address is readily available on this very site!

Sep 12, 2006, 12:50:00 PM  
Anonymous sixstr said...

First off, long time lurker and a big fan of the blog.

However, I have to agree with Carreiro and pothead on the anonymity factor. It's a bit snakeoil. "Trust me, I wouldn't lie." That and a buck will buy me a bus ticket. OK, maybe not a buck anymore but you get the point. I could do without the valiant attempts to defend honor by saying you would never lie or misrepresent information. In choosing to read this blog I have a duty to myself to weigh the information and determine if it is salient.

I don't have a problem with Marinite staying anonymous, I mean, I chose a non-descript identity to post this comment-- I just have to factor in that he/she is unwilling to disclose influential background information that could potential shed light on a certain position.

Keep up the great work!

Sep 12, 2006, 1:00:00 PM  
Blogger anon said...

@sixstr

please allow me to quote "pothead":

"...people are nuts."

If you had an influential blog as a hobby would you want to be easily identified?

Sep 12, 2006, 1:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Warren Carreiro said...

Actually what DataQuick said was
"Reporting resale single family residences and condos as well as new homes
% Change is from the same month last year"

Notice they are comparing the same month, not a "year-over-year" drop.

The real "year-over-year" drop was 1%.

Warren Carreiro

Sep 12, 2006, 2:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I recently posted this blogs url in the comments section of that broker's blog and the blog owner deleted it and now requires people to register. nice.

Sep 12, 2006, 2:13:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Warren,

Can you clarify this statement:

"Actually what DataQuick said was
"Reporting resale single family residences and condos as well as new homes
% Change is from the same month last year"

Notice they are comparing the same month, not a "year-over-year" drop.

The real "year-over-year" drop was 1%."

To me "% Change is from the same month last year" is the same as "year-over-year" drop. That is, July 2005 compared to July 2006 is the same as year-over-year. Do you have a different understanding of year-over-year?

Moreover, don't try to confuse the issue. Marinite was clear in his original post. He cited his source: http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPCAR.shtm. When I go to that link and scroll down to Marin County I see minus 6.61%. There it is. Done. Anyone and everyone can go check for themselves.

You, on the other hand, say "The real "year-over-year" drop was 1%."

What is your source? Is it a different DataQuick slice of the numbers for July? Is it pulled from a different source. If so, what's up with that? Marinite cited his source. Do you dispute it? If so, I’d like to hear your explanation.

Lastly, you wrote in your blog “I don’t think these numbers really came from DataQuick.”

Do you still stand by that statement?

Sep 12, 2006, 2:57:00 PM  
Blogger marin_explorer said...

I think it is pretty lame to then direct readers to go harass someone.

Huh. I for one didn't get that "message" from Marinite's blog. I think it's wise to not overreact to anything people toss around in the blogsphere, whether it's from a RE pro or a consumer contrarian.

Btw, if you recall that venomous reader response to the IJ article, I consider Marinite more than justified to protect his anonymity. I would to ensure I wouldn't get dragged through the mud, especially as I sense a backlash picking up.
(IMO)

Sep 12, 2006, 2:58:00 PM  
Blogger Athena said...

Ben said...
Warren, practice this line carefully;
"Hi, my name is Warren, enjoy shopping at Walmart."


bwahahahahahahaha!!! OMG! I just laughed so hard the engineers all came out of their offices to make me share this! :-D

as for the anonymity factor. Look- obviously real estate is a very controversial topic and very emotional and just because someone has an opinion or questions worthy of being aired publicly, doesn't mean one craves to become a public figure. Marinite wants what all of us want... we want our voices heard.

Realtors that are making their living pimping their chitboxes and fixing people up with their mortgage broker buddies of course put their name out there... they are making bank for their ability to get you to put your brain aside while they put their hands in your pockets.

Those of us who have questions about the unreal state of real estate and the whole pyramid scheme of it- aren't airing our questions and opinions in order to profit, but to make sense of it all. This is where we live. This is our community. We all care about it to one extent or another. Having your voice heard publicly does not mean we all have to become public figures.

Warren and his buddies aren't hosting websites to have their voices heard - they are doing it to make money off your gullability and banking on your emotional attachment to painting your walls any color you like even if it means renting from the bank for life.

Sep 12, 2006, 3:05:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...

To me "% Change is from the same month last year" is the same as "year-over-year" drop.

It means the same thing to me too which is why I (and others, both bloggers and RE "officials") use it. It also rather nicely takes into account "seasonal variations" in the market. After all, seasonal market factors in July of 2005 should have been the same as in July of 2006 and pretty much every July.

Sep 12, 2006, 3:07:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"It means the same thing to me too which is why I (and others, both bloggers and RE "officials") use it."

Exactly! It's universally understood -- that's what "year-over-year" means.

Now, it will be interesting to see if Warren responds. I bet he won't. If he disputes this definition of year-over-year, then he doesn't know up from down. If he doesn't dispute it, then his whole original blog entry falls apart.

He's in a world of hurt.

Any prospective client that googles "Warren Carreiro" and comes across this thread would be crazy to not steer clear of him.

Sep 12, 2006, 3:13:00 PM  
Blogger Athena said...

What it sounds like Warren is attempting to do is to obfuscate the point and make it appear as if the change is only measuring month to month change.

Now if he really believes this we should be frightened for him and pool together our money and buy him a helmet and a harness to be sure he gets to the short bus without hurting himself.

I am scared that he really does believe this... and this reminds me of why I have no faith in the FB's out there swimming nekkid. The tide is on the way out, and we are going to be astonished at all who we discover were swimming nekkid with the likes of our friend Warren.

Sep 12, 2006, 3:15:00 PM  
Blogger clemente619 said...

Warren, Warren, Warren,

You don't know what year-over-year is?!?

That is hilarious!

Thank you Warren for making my day.

Sep 12, 2006, 3:19:00 PM  
Blogger David said...

I proudly stand with my fellow housing bubble blogger Marinite.

David
Bubble Meter Blof

Sep 12, 2006, 5:56:00 PM  
Anonymous tom stone said...

Marinite,i think you are wise to not disclose personal information,apparently mr carreiro cannot distinguish between the message and the messenger,and would like to burn the messenger at the stake. he is not alone.many real estate "professionals" have gambled everything on prices rising unto the heavens,forever and ever amen...the best salespeople i have met have all been a bit delusional,and delusional people act out when reality intrudes.i am still working as a loan broker,and i referred someone to your blog last saturday,because i feel it is the best resource available on the real estate market in marin county,both for content,and for the links you provide.

Sep 12, 2006, 6:18:00 PM  
Anonymous SF Mechanist said...

Ben Franklin anonymously printed "Poor Richards Almanac" which was critical of the British Empire, so anonymous critiques and expose's against power is now without precedent in American history.

It is the data and analysis that matters, and anything else leads to problematic ad hominem arguments.

Sep 12, 2006, 7:29:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well, it looks like Warren isn't going to answer any more questions from us here or at his blog (http://www.themarinrealtor.com/blog).

He's put up a bunch of new entries just in the last couple of hours to push the "Watch Your Source on Statistics" attack on Marinite further down the page.

Oh yeah, it looks like he doesn't allow comments on his blog again.

What a coward.

"My name is Warren Carreiro and I am a Real Estate Broker and live in San Rafael" should be replaced with "My name is Warren Carreiro and I can't back up my statements or admit I'm wrong or allow independent views on my blog."

Pathetic.

Good riddance, Warren.

Sep 12, 2006, 8:31:00 PM  
Blogger randolfe said...

Mr. Carreiro has indeed disabled comments on his blog. On the outside chance that he is reading this:

Mr. Carreiro,

My name is Randolph Harrison. My non-anonymous blog is www.capitalism2.org . I am a regular author at the www.patrick.net blog; where my specialty topics are the economics and finance of real estate.

I can demonstrate for you with empirical evidence and strong anecdotal evidence that South Marin prices are falling; in some cases dramatically. Homes in Belvedere have recently sold for over 20% less than the original listed asking.

Perhaps you'd like to engage in an honest debate instead of hurling rhetorical arguments? If you require a non-anonymous forum, feel free to try your luck on my blog. I'd be happy to do so on yours, but you apparently don't handle criticism well. Just a piece of advice about blogging, especially if you're not anon: learn to have a thick skin. They call this form of media "2.0" for a reason. You don't get to hide behind some editorial shills, but you might have to actually be held accountable for what you claim.

Oh, and by the way, I can also demonstrate how the equity I cashed out of our home in 2005 when we sold to rent has earned substantially more returns, for less risk over the past 18 months than owning a home would have--even assuming no loss. You have heard of inflation, I assume. When the 30-50% retracement occurs, well then that much the better.

Marinite, thanks for the forum.

Sep 12, 2006, 8:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Hanover_Fist said...

Warren,

...if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one; if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle.

http://classics.mit.edu/Tzu/artwar.html

Sep 12, 2006, 9:30:00 PM  
Blogger Van Housing Blogger said...

Congrats, Marinite. You're having impact.

BTW, I am on the same page re: anonymity. We bubble bloggers are in the process of pissing off a lot of people. There is no telling what some loony might do.

Sep 12, 2006, 11:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There's nothing wrong with remaining anonymous in this forum if there is a real concern of physical harm to oneself and/or one's family/property. In this case you're having a real impact on how people think and communicate about this topic, that in turn can influence their choices. This blog brings important info to the forefront and, I might add, is enhanced by contributors/commentators who are clearly educated and have important or interesting info to relay. In a media world overwhelmed with trite crap about Tom Cruise and Paris Hilton, reaching a huge number of people with important information is powerful.

I think you're right to remain anon for the above reasons, but also, as you stated earlier, bcs who you are and what you do are not relevant to the discussion and thus need not be mentioned.

Keep it up! I love this blog, and I think the fellow posters rock!

Sep 13, 2006, 6:01:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I recently sold a home here in Nor Cal through an agent...this is the first and last I'll ever do. I did it because I didn't have time to get out and show it etc...Well through this agent I lost about 50k when offers were rejected initially. I told my agent I'd look at just about any offer and she continued to hold the price and tell me that I had such a great POS. Well I ended up selling for much, much less because I could afford to, I know what is going on in this market and I know that I had to get out of it or I'd be stuck. Well one of her comments got to me..."the media isn't helping us out "I was taken back by this. I really wonder how agents get their information. Do they know why prices are dropping? How long? I certainly do...because I've done my homework. I look at historical data. I'm not saying I can predict with 100% certainty that a certain price will be hit, or how much growth you'll get or loss. But you can tell that a change is going to happen...and that change will last for about 5-7 years. So when I go about my investments I use this tool as my guide. Mr. Correiro is frustrated at the media...Blogs are the new media and are a valuable source for the common person to make their thoughts heard. If you wern't doing such a good job...he wouldn't care.

~Caddis

Sep 13, 2006, 6:59:00 AM  
Blogger clemente619 said...

OK, time for a quick game recap.

Marinite: "I want to remain anonymous."

Warren Carreiro: "My name is Warren Carreiro and I'm a realtor."

Score: 3 points for Warren (charity).


Marinite: "Here is the final tabulation of July, 2006's results according to DataQuick."

Warren Carreiro: "I don’t think these numbers really came from DataQuick."

Score: 7 points for Marinite (the numbers were in fact from DataQuick – a fact Warren has still not acknowledged but anyone can confirm within 10 seconds).


Marinite: “Marin County's year-over-year "appreciation" was -6.61%.”

Warren Carreiro: “I just ran the numbers from MLS (which has all but a very small percentage of the sales) and found From July 2005 to July 2006 the average price and the median price are both down around one percent.”

Score: 7 points for Marinite (Again, a ten second check verifies Marinite’s source. Warren’s “ran the numbers from MLS” source is not independently verifiable.)


Marinite: “Marin County's year-over-year "appreciation" was -6.61%.”

Warren Carreiro: “Notice they are comparing the same month, not a "year-over-year" drop.”

Score: 21 points for Marinite (It’s more than a little over the top that the real estate pro doesn’t know what year-over-year is.)


Marinite: “Anyone can post comments on my blog.”

Warren Carreiro: “Anyone could post comments on my blog over a 4 hour period, but then I just turned them off again once posters pointed out my errors.”

Score: 21 points for Marinite (Is any explanation necessary?)

Sep 13, 2006, 8:38:00 AM  
Blogger clemente619 said...

Marinite,

You need to update this posting to reflect that Warren no longer allows comments to his blog.

Sep 13, 2006, 8:41:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

More people like Mr. Carreiro, with real estate credentials should speak up to losers that make comments and are afraid to be responsible for them. His opinion is appreciated and has more merit. For all we know your a frog.

Sep 13, 2006, 10:30:00 AM  
Blogger clemente619 said...

"with real estate credentials should speak up to losers that make comments"

You sir/ma'am are hysterical! Attention losers that make comments – you’re on double secret probation.

“His opinion is appreciated and has more merit.”

He’s wrong on the FACTS. The FACTS! Therefore, how much merit does his OPINION have?

“For all we know your a frog.”

We may never know whether I am amphibious or not, but we have established for the record that you didn’t learn the difference between “your” and “you’re” in 5th grade.

Thanks for playing “anonymous”.

Sep 13, 2006, 10:44:00 AM  
Blogger anon said...

"More people like Mr. Carreiro, with real estate credentials should speak up to losers that make comments and are afraid to be responsible for them."

Wasn't this very comment just posted anonymously? Hence with no way for the author to be responsible? hahaha! The hypocrisy is wonderful.

"His opinion is appreciated..."

You know what they say about opinions.

"...and has more merit."

more merit than what? Someone we actually respect?

Sep 13, 2006, 10:54:00 AM  
Blogger hemorrhoidforhousing said...

Marlboro Man: Smoking is cool

Surgenon General: Smoking causes premature death.

Marlboro Man: There is no proof smoking is bad for you.

Surgeon General: Smoking causes premature births.

Marlboro Man: My mother smoked and I'm okay.

Surgeon General: Smoking causes premature aging.

Marlboro Man: I'm handsome in a rugged, weather-beaten way.

Suregen General: Don't smoke it's bad for you.

Marlboro Man.....died of emphysema

Sep 13, 2006, 11:04:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just remember RealTWhores are just money pimps that are good at smiling and driving.

Sep 13, 2006, 12:38:00 PM  
Blogger cajun100 said...

I nominate Warren for a role in the marvelous, frightening black comedy (I think?) I saw for the first time on Bravo last evening:

"The Million Dollar Listing".

If you haven't yet seen this "reality" show and its focus on almost UNBELIEVEABLE real estate agents, sellers and buyers, check it out. The setting is wild and wooley Southern California, but the action will be easily recognized by anyone posting here.

Warren, you most definitely belong in that "show".

This blog is performing a very valuable service. I would not expect local brokers to be anything but upset with the information presented and discussed here. A more educated buying public is NOT a cheerful trend for the residential real estate sector.

I predict that within a decade, RE broker oversight by agencies goes UP and commissions come DOWN. And it is high time.

Sep 13, 2006, 12:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Warren Carreiro said...

After seeing all your posting I re-read my post and agree, my choice of words was not the best, sorry to get so many of you upset. The real story is DataQuick does not agree with MLS which shows the July 2005 median price of $861,000 and July 2006 at $850,000 which is a 1% drop. I don’t understand the discrepancy between DataQuick and MLS.

Sep 13, 2006, 5:15:00 PM  
Blogger Athena said...

Warren do you understand that the MLS is a seriously flawed system in the first place? How about the fact that there isn't just one MLS system or that the data can be and is often fudged, and flat out manipulated?

DataQuick while less than perfect, is still lightyears ahead of the MLS in terms of credibility.

Maybe you should bone up on the realities of your profession a bit more?

Sep 13, 2006, 7:22:00 PM  
Blogger clemente619 said...

So there you have it, folks. The short, sad tale of Warren Carreiro.

At least he admitted he was wrong (and confused).

I wonder if Warren still thinks blogging will be good for sales.

Sep 14, 2006, 9:03:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

DataQuick while less than perfect

It is also an independent source and does not succumb to regional favoritism, at least in theory.

Sep 14, 2006, 10:46:00 AM  
Blogger clemente619 said...

I'm sure everyone has had the experience where you walk into a CompuUSA or Circuit City, and after 30 seconds with a "sales associate" you say to yourself:

"I don't know much about (insert product) but I know so much more than you do. How can you work at this full time and yet know so little?"

I've had the same experience with 9 out of 10 realtors. Does that mesh with what others have seen?

Sep 14, 2006, 12:31:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...

Maybe I should also point out that the DataQuick number of a YOY -6.61% price decline in Marin for July, 2006 agrees nicely with what Vision RE reported that month:

http://tinyurl.com/gprdm

Sep 14, 2006, 1:30:00 PM  
Blogger Lander said...

Wow! 65 comments and a blurb on Curbed!

FYI, although the dqnews stats are only up for one month, CAR does archive the DQ price stats on its website (though not sales).

July 2006

Sep 14, 2006, 2:16:00 PM  
Anonymous seattle price drop said...

Cannot get this picture out of my mind of one person (in this case you Marinite) busily creating a Real Estate Bubble- Lord! You must be exhausted!

It exhausts me just trying to picture it.

Sep 14, 2006, 9:45:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...

Cannot get this picture out of my mind of one person (in this case you Marinite) busily creating a Real Estate Bubble- Lord! You must be exhausted!

The sheer irony of it is staggering.

Sep 14, 2006, 10:06:00 PM  
Anonymous bHT said...

Hey Warren,

Do you get what has happened here?
There are plenty of people who are disturbed.
We are wanting fair housing prices.
We want to live here with our families.
You are making massive dollars in this RE fantasy camp.
Do you really not understand the consequenses?
Personal responsiblilty?
Has anybody ever asked you?

I think you made the mistake of accidentally colliding with the folks who are being hurt by this situation.

There are consequences to what you do.

Sep 15, 2006, 12:54:00 AM  
Blogger Nozferatu said...

Marinite -

Forget this idiot....he's a dime-a-dozen broker. He's shitting bricks right now because his greed has warped his mind and he's wondering how the hell is he going to keep lying to people about the market in the next 6-12 months.

Man...I've seen so many brokers like this it's insane. For him to say the market is good and deals are out there...he should have his license revoked for such a big lie. The problem is that the people who should revoke it are even bigger liars sitting on their fat asses in Sacramento.

You said:

And besides, what's wrong with having a forum in which people can freely express their opinions and share facts about Marin's real estate market? Isn't Mr. Carreiro agreeable to the idea of open and public debate and discussion on this topic? The last time I checked freedom of speech is still Amendment numero uno to the U.S. Constitution as written in the Bill of Rights. Maybe he really isn't in favor of open public discussion as I notice that he has comments turned off on his blog.

Well..he looks like George Bush so I wonder if he thinks the same...suppress democratic thinking and open discussion...we don't want anyone to know what we are really up to or how bad things really are.

If I were him, I'd not reveal my name with the type of garbage advice he's giving out. I'd only make myself look stupid.

Sep 15, 2006, 5:08:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm stepping into this emotional discussion because it doesn't seem entirely fair to Warren nor to other good Realtors who are neither immoral, greed-crazed, or liars.

I'm a Realtor...

(Short pause for boo's, hisses, and high velocity thrown tomatoes)

Instead of attacking him personally and resorting to all this petty name-calling, what about evaluating his main point without so much anger?

He says that the sky is NOT falling.

Does EVERYONE here REALLY believe that prices are plummeting downwards and Marin Real Estate will someday become affordable to the masses? This is off the subject but do you have your kids wait for the Great Pumpkin WITH YOU or are they allowed to Trick or Treat with their friends?)

In a fair world, policemen, firemen, and teachers should be able to afford housing in the county they work in. It's ATROCIOUS that these people, who do so much for the community, can't live in it. It's one of the biggest reasons Marin is losing its character.

I can say this because I've lived here my whole life and it's obvious how things are changing for the worse.

(Note: I'm NOT giving out my name and number even though I'm, by profession, a self-promotional a--hole. My potentially crowd-pleasing opinion about Marin's decline is from the heart. I'm also not giving out my name and number because, frankly, some of you scare me. Not because you're threatening my livelihood in any real way...but because you seem a bit Koo Koo. (Hmmmm, is "Koo" spelled with a 'K' or a "C"?) Anyway, you're too self-righteous and angry for my tastes. Wouldn't want you as a client. Don't need to sell you a house. Life's too short. Plus, the market and I have been doing just fine without you. I'll take my chances without your business even if it means my potential ruination.

Ooops, I resorted to petty name-calling and sarcasm before even starting my serious Realtor-Speak on the benefits of home ownership.

But name-calling is so EASY to do on the internet! And FUN!!! ESPECIALLY when I'm ANONYMOUS. How liberating to type whatever nasty little thing I wish without fear of repercussion. I can be an angry know-it-all and trash people like Warren, even if they may have a point.

I can be unforgiving, cruel, and sadistic. And despite (or because of) my anti-social behavior, I can become a HERO in this virtual world -- even if I'm not particularly insightful, interesting, or likeable in real life. I'm just some dude renting an apartment, laughing and sneering at all the fools out there who are buying houses, living happily, and not realizing they're just marks in a deceitful Realtor's con game.

You know, I've got all kinds of facts and intelligent-sounding arguments that defend Warren, my "evil" profession, and those "fools" who have chosen to purchase a home but...

Coo Coo. You're all Koo Koo!!!! Hahahahahaha.

Oh, this is much more fun.

You're coo-coo-heads! I hope you step in a big self-righteous piece of Koo Koo!!!

Warren's biggest mistake is that he should have made his blog anonymous. Then he could have written about his frustrations with the "bubble" theory and those who promote it...He could have pretended that, because he was anonymous, he was writing with the best interests of The People in mind.

But more importantly, he could have ended his remarks with something like "and anyone who disagrees with me is Coo Coo. Or Koo Koo."


Look, some posters in this discussion seem to think it's Joe Realtor's "fault" that Marin is changing, that all Realtors are "whores" because we help people buy property, and we are "liars" because we quote MLS statistics.

I'm just curious -- If not Marin, where should everyone move that is more fair? Where in our country IS housing fair? Who here has moved to this place? How's it working out? Is the grass truly greener in Texas? Or Montana? Idaho? I'm serious, I want to know. Just how are those winters in Montana? I've heard it's beautiful but it gets kinda cold. Like Below Zero cold. Are the public schools as good as Marin in Idaho? I'm politically liberal so I might be uncomfortable with the whole church and state thing. They're suppossed to be separate, you know? Church and state that is. Also, I'm not into white supremacy. I like being white but I'm against supremacy. It's Koo Koo.

On another point, are some people in here arguing that EVERYONE should rent instead of owning? Who gets to be the landlord if everyone is renting? Sounds like a profitable business. Landlording, that is. Eespecially in a county where everyone wants to rent instead of buy. I imagine those rents might start going up, Supply and Demand being what it is. I might like to get in on that. Owning, that is. You know, so I could make money. Of course, I would only buy grocercies and give to charity with my profits. Lord knows it would be wrong to buy ANOTHER property and ANOTHER property so I could make even MORE money and get even more tax benefits.

Okay, let me step back a second. What IS the major thrust of the Realtor Bashers on here? That we're WRONG? That the sky IS actually falling? That, soon, teachers, policemen, and firemen will be able to afford homes in Marin because of some major shift in the market?

Or, is the major thrust that it's wrong to question Joe Bubble's position on bubbles?

I get what Warren was saying when he said Joe Bubble is "creating" the bubble. I don't think he meant it literally. By "creating" or promoting a sense that there is a bubble that will soon explode, this site has a purpose. It's interesting.

Time will tell who is wrong or right. An honest Realtor will tell you that he or she doesn't have a clue what is going to happen next for sure.

But the average price of Real Estate in Marin has shot up every year for the last 40 except for 2. 90 and 91 I think. And whatever losses or flattening that occurred during those years made up for it by leaps and bounds since.

I may buy another extremely expensive piece of property on Sunday. Wish me luck.

Coo Cooily,

The Bubble Bee

Sep 17, 2006, 7:00:00 AM  
Blogger marinmaven said...

This is what I posted at Mr. Carreiro's site today. I will post it here just in case it disappears.:

"As an avid reader and sometime poster to the Marin Real Estate Blog, I have to say that Marinite always cites his sources behind his conclusions. You may argue about his conclusions but not his data or sources. If there is something wrong with the data he uses that is considered the best available, it is not Marinite’s fault. There are times that I may disagree with him (ie. attitude toward the Marin Agricultural Trust), but I find that his integrity is very sound. If you read his blog over time it is obvious that he is providing a public service — giving consumers of real estate an alternate view for their consideration before buying.
You don’t have to have an interest in buying or selling real estate to be interested in the deflation of prices and the consequences of exotic loan practices. When it all hits the fan it will effect those who didn’t even participate in the bubble. Marinite’s blog does an excellent job in explaining how the bubble and exotic loans are bad for families and how the bubble burst will hurt us all.
I would think that it would be in your best interest to be able to have sellers and buyers entering the market with a full understanding of the market with their eyes open — void of unrealistic expectations. Marinite and the many bubble bloggers around the country are merely making sure everyone knows what they are getting themselves into."

Sep 17, 2006, 10:04:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Coo coo, koo koo" - sez it all.....is this Marinite dialogue - and from a professional realtor??? I sounds more like a kiddies' recess in the lower elementary grades.

Hey, sure they are whining as the candy box is getting tugged away. All the hogs at the trough bellyache this way when the lil people start to ask for afforable housing, decent/good education, affordable healthcare, you know, all the real luxuries of life.

Here is SF we have our own unique problems, try some SF RE blog, we don't smirk there, we scream.

Sep 17, 2006, 12:38:00 PM  
Blogger marinmaven said...

"On another point, are some people in here arguing that EVERYONE should rent instead of owning? Who gets to be the landlord if everyone is renting? Sounds like a profitable business. Landlording, that is. Eespecially in a county where everyone wants to rent instead of buy. I imagine those rents might start going up, Supply and Demand being what it is. I might like to get in on that. Owning, that is. You know, so I could make money. Of course, I would only buy grocercies and give to charity with my profits. Lord knows it would be wrong to buy ANOTHER property and ANOTHER property so I could make even MORE money and get even more tax benefits."

I think what has actually been argued that when the housing market is in a frenzy and bringing prices to an artificial high level, it is worth saving one's money, renting, and waiting out the market. In a normal market, where there is affordable homes for families to get conventional loans to own, it is of course prudent to own than rent. It is really easy to do the math on this one. If a monthly payment and balloon payment on a 700k-800k mortgage is more than what you would pay in rent -- renting would be the way to go.

You could own to "make money" or you can own a house to live in and provide security for your children. When you own a home to live in and to pass down to children, the ups and downs of the market mean little, but when you own to turn a profit you become a slave to the ups and downs.
It is great when you can sell when the market is going up, but you can get trapped and burned on the way down. I saw as much in the tech bubble, and so it will happen in the real estate bubble.
If you are owning to make money, you contribute to the price escalation that prices the average buyer up.

It is true that over four decades housing values go up and are a good value as long as you buy low and if you need to can sell high. The problem is that a lot of people are buying high with the hope it will get higher when all indications say that it is only a matter of time before the party is over. What is happening is a lot like playing the stock market in 2000, and a lot like gambling.

Sep 17, 2006, 4:59:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous 7:00 AM,

Wow! That was great.

I nominate you for the “Bette Davis on her 7th highball” award.

Sep 17, 2006, 5:04:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...

I think what has actually been argued that when the housing market is in a frenzy and bringing prices to an artificial high level, it is worth saving one's money, renting, and waiting out the market. In a normal market, where there is affordable homes for families to get conventional loans to own, it is of course prudent to own than rent.

Exactly.

I am so tired of having words put into my mouth or false claims invented so as to support a bogus assault

Sep 17, 2006, 5:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Bubble Bee has some fair points. But what does he (sounds like a he) expect? That we should be happy that after the biggest asset boom in history (as called by The Economist), which clearly, I'll say again - clearly pushed those prices far above anything resembling normal is OK? That we can't expect any negative consequences from such an event? Oh yes, we'll all just walk away happily with our fortune and retire early in the boonies ...

Sure, in 40 years prices never really dropped. Who cares? That's the same most places in the U.S. Go back to when we had a nation wide house drop - the Great Depression. Not a fun time. Does Koo Koo realize that the stupidity that occurred during this last bit of fun is pushing us closer to conditions, similiar to, but not the same, as back then?

Realtors and everybody else in that industry should be afraid of the lynch mobs, for helping to cause such a train wreck in our economy. But as he says, we don't know what'll happen, but most sane people would expect that nothing grows to the sky forever, including Marin houses. And I think most people know that we don't live in a perfect world, and have an intuitive sense of The Reversion to the Mean.

For the record, I bought my house years ago, and sold it right at the peak last summer for a load. Now I'm renting a nice house. And I'm rather pissed off about it too. From 2003-2006 I was pissed, as I wanted to just move to a new house, but prices went up so much in what was clearly a bubble, so I knew I had to sit it out one way or another.

The dot.com pissed me off - so did this bubble. When will people learn not to be idiots? Sorry Bubble Bee - you don't impress me.

Dr. Deflation

Sep 17, 2006, 8:29:00 PM  
Blogger marin_explorer said...

In a fair world, policemen, firemen, and teachers should be able to afford housing in the county they work

I've lost count how many times I've heard how police, etc. cannot afford living here. That's not too surprising. However, I'm sure you're well aware of home affordability issues for professionals around the bay area. Most here are pretty aware of what's going on.

Thanks for dropping by, albeit anonymously. Judging by your level of banter, I can understand why. I'm sure we're all capable of someday finding agents that will represent our interests. Good luck flipping property in 2007.

Sep 17, 2006, 10:09:00 PM  
Blogger Chicken Little's Satan said...

Dear Dr. Depression,

I'm not too impressed with you either.

You probably had no complaints when you sold your house for a "load". And I strongly doubt you decided to price your house far BELOW market so that you could do the right thing and sell it to a lowly teacher, fireman, or policeman. Where was your sense of fairness and community then? Did a Svengali Realtor put you under a mind-control spell and FORCE you to list your house for a "load"? Or did you somehow resist our powerful Satanic voodoo and list it all by your little lonesome so you could save on commission and make even MORE money?

But the real question is, "When you sold your house for a 'load', why did you decide to rent?"

Were you EXPECTING the "bubble" to burst and, like the savvy magnate that you are, chose to outsmart everyone (including all of us lying immoral greed-crazed Realtors) and WAIT for the inevitable Big Crash, then buy a better house for less? Sorry everyone else in Marin didn't suffer horrible losses to serve your personal financial goals...yet. But there's still time. Hopefully the bubble will burst, right? Hopefully you can buy a mansion really cheap, right?

Maybe you should have waited just a little longer...surely The Great Pumpkin will come soon and, in biblical proportions, smite all the evil Marin Realtors (and Mortgage Brokers) who are *personally* responsible for your current situation.

And, while I'm at it, let me speak to the more important points raised since my "great rant" yesterday about someone taking the "candy box away".

1) Ha. HA!!!! I giggle. I shake my head and say, "Man, this site is FUNNY and DEPRESSING. Like a Woody Allen movie, the heroes and sages of this forum sound like little conspiracy theorist schlubs, mad at the world and taking it out on Realtors.

Hardworking and honest Realtors like me are so FAR from cowering in the manner you hateful goofballs imagine. My Coo Coo Poo Poo routine purposely rose only to the maturity level your silly and paranoid rants merit.

I only wish you all could do a Realtor's job for even one week to see how wrong you are about so many of your beliefs. Some of your accusations are so baseless and absurd -- and your worldview is so cynical and negative -- I wonder if you are clinically depressed.

I agree that Marin home prices are insane. But perhaps your beef should be with Capitalism instead of demonizing Realtors and making up horseshit about us. Do you REALLY think we have meetings and sit around trying to figure out how to deceive you? Do you actually believe we can manipulate and control the MLS data to twist the truth to our advantage? I suppose you also think the "X-Files" is a documentary on the FBI and worry that invisible aliens are snickering at your thighs when you're in the shower...

You want ME to act more mature????? Some of you should step back for a moment and take a hard look at yourselves and some of the INSANE crap you're spewing on this forum.

Don't get me wrong, I love free speech and many of the opinions on here are thoughtful and interesting. But just because you THINK you're an expert in something doesn't make you one. I have so many clients who initially think a Realtor's role is merely to fill out a few forms, bake cookies for an open house, and cash a check for 6%.

Ha!!!

You think the jig is up, that Realtors are freaking out because the market is changing???

HA! Some realtors might be. But you're so clueless about how things really work that reading your thoughts makes me more secure than ever. The market will change eventually and it will likely become more difficult to sell homes quickly. But the public needs us. When there are MANY properties out there competing with yours and NO ONE is coming to your open houses for weeks, you'll pay. The Good, Honest, and Hardworking Realtors will still be around to help you and you'll beg for their guidance and assistance.

2) If you're thinking about joining a "lynch mob" to kill a Realtor "when the market crashes", slowly take your fingers off the keyboard, dial 911, and get help today. You're out of your friggin' MIND!!!!! I put my money on you and Dr. Depression sitting in his rental together, getting drunk and cursing out the Realtors on The Home & Garden Network every night long before I'm running for the hills.

3) MarinMavin is hot. And smart. And a great writer! And she digs Ray Charles and Spiderman movies!!!! She may be the Perfect Woman (third only to my wife and mom). Have any of you depressing clowns ever tried asking her out??? I've got a great idea. Tell her you'd like to plan a Realtor Hate Group at your apartment. Then cook her a delicious dinner, impress her with a bunch of conspiracy theories about the MLS, LISTEN to what she has to say, look in her eyes, slowly take her by the hand and ... take her to Rancho Nicasio for some live blues and dancing. Or out to see "Snakes On A Plane". She's got a good sense of humor and she'll probably love the outrageous goofiness of it all.

Whatever you do, make sure you have some fun once in awhile. It's easy to get so consumed with hate and pessimism, especially on the Net, that you lose perspective. In reality, most Realtors, just like you, are honest people just trying to make a living. And most of them care much more about your well-being than you care about theirs. And they'll often put your needs way above theirs -- not simply because it pays well when they're successful -- but because they sincerely want you to be happy and successful. It makes us feel proud.

Dr. Depression would have you believe that he was mislead in some way, that Realtors somehow caused the market to keep him perpetually renting after selling his home.

But a good Realtor would have advised him in such a way that he wouldn't be in this position now if he'd listened. Something tells me he didn't.

Sep 18, 2006, 7:14:00 AM  
Blogger Rob Dawg said...

Coo Coo the Realtor was droll. Fun to read but a seroious point, teachers and firemen. I do deep data mining of voter rolls and don't believe the crap about housing in expensive areas pricing public service employees out of the area. The voter rolls tell a much different story.

Sep 18, 2006, 7:19:00 AM  
Blogger marin_explorer said...

But the public needs us.

Really? In your particular case, why am I not convinced?

Homebuyers are already able to provide themselves with a good cross-section of home data, and it's only a matter of time before some entrepreneur develops a more cost-effective business model for real estate transactions.

Then you'll discover how much the public needs you.

Sep 18, 2006, 8:29:00 AM  
Blogger clemente619 said...

"The market will change eventually and it will likely become more difficult to sell homes quickly."

Um, chicken little's satan, as a real estate professional, do you have an estimate as to when the market might change?

If it may become more difficult to sell a home quickly, I'd sure like to know about that before it happens.

I mean, I'm not crazy. I don't expect the market to change or, Lord knows, see a house sit unsold, but just in case you see any evidence of that happening, let us know. OK?

Sep 18, 2006, 9:20:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Some things need said ...

To quote Anonymous realtor
"Are the public schools as good as Marin in Idaho? I'm politically liberal so I might be uncomfortable with the whole church and state thing. They're suppossed to be separate, you know? Church and state that is. Also, I'm not into white supremacy. I like being white but I'm against supremacy."

If anonymous had taken the time to read what he wrote he might noticed something. That he managed to imply that all public education in Idaho is actually run by some unnamed church and that everyone in Idaho is a white supremist. Could anonymous please cite some souces for these accusations? Recent court cases or studies deliniating how some, as yet unnamed religion, controls the curricula? Studies documenting how all of the people or even a majority of people belong to or support a white suppremist movement?

This is classic liberal think. Label anyone who doesn't agree with you a religous fanatic and white supremist. Mr anonymous - you are a narrow minded bigot. If your views on housing are founded on the same sort of narrow minded logic that your biggoted statement above is - you should not be suprised by the over-whelming negative response they recieve on this board.

In this country people have the right to hold whatever opinion they want. All that freedom of speech, religion and privacy thing you know (I dare you to figure out which parts of the constitution and/or admendents I just referenced). Just because they do not happen to hold the same opinions as you does not make them a stupid, a religous fanatic, a facist, a white supremist or anything else. They are just people. If you want to know what the problem is, please, please, go find a mirror and while looking in it, entertain the thought, if even for just one second, that you might be wrong.

Sep 18, 2006, 9:27:00 AM  
Anonymous lbc said...

Our sophomoric realtor said -

But the public needs us.

Then marin_explorer said -

Really? In your particular case, why am I not convinced?

Go back and read that bit about how the public needs realtors. It was in the context of sellers..open houses, signs,etc. Buyers don't need realtors anymore.

Sep 18, 2006, 10:11:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

Dang! I tune out for a day or so and look what I miss!

I sure hope our anonymous/chicken little satan realtor troll is not representative of the entire industry.

Sep 18, 2006, 10:17:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

In a fair world, policemen, firemen, and teachers should be able to afford housing in the county they work in. It's ATROCIOUS that these people, who do so much for the community, can't live in it. It's one of the biggest reasons Marin is losing its character.

I can say this because I've lived here my whole life and it's obvious how things are changing for the worse.


This realtor admits how atrocious this situation is. And then turns around and justifies it as ok presumably because he is making a fat stack of cash on the situation.

Sep 18, 2006, 10:27:00 AM  
Blogger Chicken Little's Satan said...

"Homebuyers are already able to provide themselves with a good cross-section of home data, and it's only a matter of time before some entrepreneur develops a more cost-effective business model for real estate transactions."

----

This is just too addicting. I may have to hang it up immediately and promise never to look on here again for fear that I will spend all my time having ridiculous squabbles with misanthropes.

So let this be my last reply for (hopefully) ever:

I wouldn't be surprised if the business model for real estate transactions changes in some way in the next 10 years, perhaps yielding some different pricing structures for different levels of service. At the moment though, people who choose Help-U-Sell and discount Brokerages are getting shafted and they don't even know it. You get what you pay for and, from what I've seen, people who choose cut-rate assistance get seriously cut-rate and shoddy representation. In the end, they hardly are saving money when they think they are. If the full-service Realtor does his or her job right, the 3% was worth every penny.

But the way people like you assign so much value to access to Data only demonstrates a general ignorance about our role.

IF the market changes and it becomes more difficult to sell a home (my earlier remark makes me sound like I am aware of something I am not...perhaps just hanging out on this website for a few days can make anyone sound more pessimistic and negative by association), I think Sellers will grow to understand the role of a Realtor beyond posting listings and baking cookies. We do so much every step of the way and unquestionably EARN our commissions. I think there will always realtors and full-service will likely always receive a full commission. (Do-it-yourself Lawyers exist...but they make their own worst clients.)

The Realtor-to-Realtor network is what sells most homes irrespective of where or how a home is advertised. Looking at data and pictures on the internet may attract a lot of eyeballs...but it is generally a serious Realtor with a serious Buyer AND a great listing agent who will get the transaction done correctly for all parties. The system works because having these two advocates for the respective parties keeps the negotiation legal and in everyone's best interests at all times.

I can only imagine the ensuing calamity if Buyers and Sellers started dealing directly with each other on a regular basis during the transaction. Believe it or not, folks, if it weren't for the help of good Realtors on both sides, Buyer/Seller greed, foolishnness, and ignorance would cause exponentially more deals to head straight down the toilet and into litigation after the close. And know-it-all Sellers would actually screw themselves out of advantages left and right. Same with Buyers.

I can proudly say that I save my Buyers thousands upon thousands of dollars on a daily basis. And I talk my Buyers out of buying houses all the time. I wish you knew how many first time buyers THANK ME for YEARS after the deal for making sure they didn't buy their first choice or their second choice.

I even talk some Buyers out of being Buyers at all when they haven't thought through all the financial ramifications of buying a house. Some people just aren't ready to become buyers and don't know it until they talk with a good Realtor and a good mortgage broker.

And I'm not the only one. This county is filled with EXCELLENT Realtors and Mortgage Brokers who are doing great things for their clients every day.

Sorry you have such a low opinion of the profession but it doesn't make you right.

I may check back in a few months to see how much hate my humble little opinion has stirred up. I bid you all good luck. Say hi to the Great Pumpkin for me. Dr. Depression, keep the place in good shape, you'll want your damage deposit back some day. Marinite, keep up the good work. It's a fun diversion. MarinMavin, you're beautfiul, don't settle for just any ol' curmudgeon on here. Pick a curmudgeon who MAY throw in the towel and buy a house one day. It's a great investment!

Cheers,

Chicken Little's Satan (Bubble Bee)

Sep 18, 2006, 10:32:00 AM  
Anonymous ross valley local said...

I will spend all my time having ridiculous squabbles with misanthropes...I may check back in a few months to see how much hate my humble little opinion has stirred up.

So much for treating a potential customer base with respect. If you can't figure out why some realtors are so disliked/distrusted, you needed go further than your post.

Oh and btw: we own, but it will be a cold day in hell before we hire someone with your 'tude.

Sep 18, 2006, 11:10:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chicken Little's Satan-

You are a presumptuous idiot. You wrote a lot seemingly intelligent words but they were meaningless garbage with bunch attitudes. I guess you are not that busy helping the sellers and buyers after all since you have plenty of time to spend on this site. Business is great? Keep on dreaming.

Sep 18, 2006, 11:12:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Oh and btw: we own, but it will be a cold day in hell before we hire someone with your 'tude."

Based on my experience living in Marin for decades, this realtor's attitude (especially the bigotry and snobbery) is quite common here more now than before (say before 15-20 years ago or so).

So to anyone contemplating moving to Marin: think again. If you don't mind running into people like this on a daily basis..say while in line at the local Safeway or wwhatever, then welcome.

I wonder if the high concentration of bigotry and snobbery in Marin is due to "white flight"? I mean i would expect such a concentration where ever whites tend to escape to since the reason for their escape in the first place is racism, bigotry, and snobbery.

Sep 18, 2006, 11:41:00 AM  
Anonymous ross valley local said...

So to anyone contemplating moving to Marin: think again. If you don't mind running into people like this on a daily basis

Well, to be fair...this sort of attitude exists in money pockets all over the bay area. That said, our particular town isn't half bad: our neighbors are great, overall a friendly place. And to the detractors: no this isn't Novato or another so-called "armpit" destination.

Personally, I think the RE bust is going to quiet down some of these loudmouth types. And it's overdue.

Sep 18, 2006, 11:57:00 AM  
Anonymous Chicken Licker said...

Hey there Koo Koo Satan Chicken,

I dig your vibe.
You've got that certain crazy FU thing that gets me going.
I'm poised to buy a Marin home, and I would love to deal with you.

I really feel your professionalism and caring attitude.
I couldn't find your contact info, so please post it.
Put your money where your beak is.

Seriously, you make a lot of sense and these miscreants here will never understand you.

I really understand where you are coming from.

Help me make a Koo Koo deal on some prime Marin property.

Sep 19, 2006, 12:28:00 AM  
Blogger anon said...

Koo Koo = Marina Prime = Troll.

Same cheerleading shit, different day.

Sep 19, 2006, 3:34:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...

Really?! You mean this blog has now been blessed with a visit by Marina Prime? Now I know I'm in the "big time".

Sep 19, 2006, 3:44:00 PM  
Blogger marin_explorer said...

MP? Oh man, and to think I actually composed a response to that guy.

Sep 19, 2006, 7:55:00 PM  
Blogger marinmaven said...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8759025/site/newsweek/
http://www.morganquitno.com/edrank05.htm

Marin doesn't even turn up with the top 300 schools. At least my alma mater, Menlo-Atherton, ranked 261. Boise in Boise, Idaho, highschool ranked 400. Tamalpais High is the top ranked school at 434.

California has been in the bottom 10 states in education for a long time. Idaho is far above California in overall ranking. While thee are pockets of excellence in the state, the level of competition getting into these schools is staggering. In the case of top schools like Gunn (ranked 69) in Palo Alto, homes are completely out of range for most people. Many of us cannot afford to live where we grew up.

I know of parents who are opting to move from Marin to Oregon that is higher ranked in education than California. You can get a better education and pay less for property. Idaho is even ranked higher than Oregon. In any case, you get more bang for your buck outside California.

Sep 20, 2006, 8:38:00 AM  
Blogger marin_explorer said...

Marin doesn't even turn up with the top 300 schools. At least my alma mater, Menlo-Atherton, ranked 261. Boise in Boise, Idaho, highschool ranked 400. Tamalpais High is the top ranked school at 434.

Marinmaven-
Yes, I did some research myself and I was surprised. Yet, by all the talk of people I know here, you'd think Marin had the best schools on the bay.

FWIW, I always thought schools were a bit overrated here, after JH up north where I had classis in physics, chemistry and latin, HS here felt like babysitting.

Sep 20, 2006, 5:59:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

That is interesting statistic about the schools in Idaho. Maybe that is how we can make lower the property price in Marin; We need to make the newspapers to covering this information in Marin. Maybe everyone can move to Idaho and Oregon and we can have less expensive houses! ;-) I am a little bit disappointed in by some of the bloggers on here and responses to the realtors on here. Coo coo satan realtor chicken is some character and funny but I do not agree the things he said to be racism. I think he sounded like a silly (also a smart) person but he does make a interesting points with his sense of humor and I found some answers to him by people in here to be immature. To call someone "bigot" and "rascist" is a mean thing to say to them and does not improve the level of dialog when it is not certain truth from the beginning. Warren the first realtor apologized and people still acted mean and condescending here and that bothered me about lack of compassion for others. Realtors like Warran possibly teach us things about the real estate market in Marin and I think can coko the realtor even when he is more funny about what how he says it. I like my realtor who I use for assistance for buying because she helped me a lot and I do not believe she is greedy and dishonest and I believe she cares about me. The coo coo realtor guy I think makes a good statement on that some people on this site are not allowing for both sides of a topic because they have made up their mind on the topic. Just my thoughts ok? Please do not call me "racist" because you do not agree with what I believe! :-) Calling me or you a racist is not good to say lightly even when you have a good argument to say. I think Republicans and Demorcats both call each other rascits for equal reasons and it is a behavior that is never about racism.

Sep 20, 2006, 6:33:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think you missed Chicken Little's Satan original post - he/she managed to imply that Idaho's schools are actually controlled by some religion and that all Idahoians (sp) are white supremists as oppossed to their politically liberal bastion of tolerance named Marin county. They got called on their bigotry.

Coo Coo Chicken Little's Satan subsequent posts did have a valid point that realtors do serve a useful purpose in the market place. If everyone did things themselves the housing market would look like a giant flea market. Professionals with some resources can do wonders for organizing a market place and facilitating transactions. However the hokey appraisals and overt calls for price collusion are way over the top.

Sep 21, 2006, 11:27:00 AM  
Anonymous freakanomics said...

Yes, I keep posting the url to this blog on Warren's blog and he keeps deleting my posts. I then posted a question -- basically asking why Warren keeps deleting the posts and asking what he is afraid of (no link or mention of this blog)? Even THAT got deleted by Warren!

Warren Carreiro -- you are a spineless jellyfish of a man. You don't have the courage to directly identify those you accuse and attack. You do not allow your readers to have what they need to make up their own minds. You seem to prefer that your readers only be exposed to your propaganda. No one should trust you.

Sep 23, 2006, 11:48:00 AM  

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