Thursday, September 28, 2006

Quote of the Day

"Bubbles are belief systems. You cannot reason a person out of a belief that they did not arrive at by reason, particularly if that person has money, reputation, or employment – or all three – that depend on dot com or telecoms stocks, or housing, or dollar denominated assets, or all three. A man or woman with everything on Number Seven has got to believe that Seven is their lucky number. Or that they are not betting, they are investing in a New Era."

Source.

14 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I completely agree with this I have friends that are doing something to that degree and they tell me I cannot believe even for a second that it won't happen I must stay positive and optimistic and IT MUST HAPPEN you shouldn't be negative.

Sep 28, 2006, 4:39:00 PM  
Blogger marin_explorer said...

"I must stay positive and optimistic and IT MUST HAPPEN..."

This is also called magical thinking.

Sep 28, 2006, 5:08:00 PM  
Blogger fredtobik said...

Replace bubbles with religion, the latter is far more harmful to society.

Sep 28, 2006, 8:10:00 PM  
Blogger sf jack said...

fred -

What are you talking about?

In the Bay Area - real estate IS religion.

[And right now, it's out behind the woodshed taking a beating.]

Sep 28, 2006, 10:34:00 PM  
Anonymous Rick said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

Sep 28, 2006, 11:08:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

Sep 28, 2006, 11:18:00 PM  
Anonymous tom stone said...

in looking at the link to magical thinking,i was struck by the number of people i know in the real estate field who are alcoholic or in recovery for a variety f obsessive compulsive disorders.this may help explain why so many otherwise intelligent professionals in the field got caught up in the mania,and reinforces my belief that you are wise to keep your anonymity.the advice not to confront a delusional person who is under great stress is wise...a lot of people are going to lose everything they have worked for all their lives,and by golly it is someone else's fault.ah well,maybe they are lucky,i'm smart enough to make dumb mistakes without any help.

Sep 29, 2006, 10:08:00 AM  
Anonymous Real Agent Thom said...

The reason so many people have become enthralled by Real Estate profit is that it requires no Real Substance.

In life, we get paid for doing work or creating something.
We have to contribute something to get reimbursement.

Real Estate gives us another option.
Mega wealth can be had by just buying in.
Buy that POS and you will end up rich.

The dream is all too soon becoming a nightmare.

To all the prospective buyers I offer a warning.
This is not business as usual.

Buy with extreme caution.

Sep 30, 2006, 1:31:00 AM  
Blogger fredtobik said...

"The reason so many people have become enthralled by Real Estate profit is that it requires no Real Substance."


That is why easy money is lost just as quickly as it was attatined. People shouldnt be so jealous of that wealth, they should focus on their own situation or their families.

Sep 30, 2006, 9:25:00 AM  
Anonymous ross valley local said...

"People shouldnt be so jealous of that wealth..."

So true. Yet, isn't that the American Way--what you don't have will certainly make you happy? Hence the credit binge...

Sep 30, 2006, 9:39:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Two quick questions. First, what does POS stand for/mean? Second, what does FB stand for/mean?

And, yes, get out of the way of the delusional!

Love this blog! THANKS.

Sep 30, 2006, 4:19:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...

"POS" = piece of shister.

"FB" = Farked borrower

Sep 30, 2006, 8:01:00 PM  
Blogger marinmaven said...

I remember what it was like in the 1990s in the days of irrational exuberance of the Internet Boom. We in the tech biz were all going to get rich on our stock options and we installed software to track the rise of our wealth. Of course, how much we would actually make would have to do how much the stock was worth once we vested, by then most of the big guys made the millions.
I remember how people would fault me for not investing heavily in tech stocks. I would calmly explain that I was a long term investor and like a diverse portfolio. Like everyone, I lost money when it busted, but not as much as those who bet it all in the techs.
People were dazzled by the microsoft millionaire stories and what became conventional wisdom -- the best returns on investment are the tech stocks even though the p/e ratios were too high. They wanted in on these pricey stocks because they didn't want to get left out. Everyone from the media on were cheering them on.
SF_Jack says that in the Bay Area - real estate is religion, but you could have easily said, "In the Bay Area - the stock market is religion" back in the late 90s.
Our economy is set up for these booms and busts, rather than steady, modest growth with investment in the long term. We do not have a sustainable economy in the long run and we no longer have a population that understands what that means.

Oct 1, 2006, 12:17:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just the same... panics are belief systems as well. You may not remember, but anyone buying in 1994-96 in California had their hearts in their throats.

Oct 3, 2006, 12:44:00 PM  

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