Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Some Preliminary September Data for Marin

I've been rather busy today and didn't have time to put together a post. Please go check out some of the disturbing news being reported over at Athena's Sonoma blog, or Ben Jones' blog, or David's Bubble Meter blog, or the always entertaining Housing Panic blog just to name a few; the bubble blogosphere is indeed inhabited by some very talented and hard-working individuals; I am surrounded by giants.

However, here are a couple of graphs that you have seen before but I've since updated. The first graph shows the number of Marin SFRs currently listed on ZipRealty (search range: any size, $100,000 to $10,000,000 asking price, all of Marin County). The data missing between November and December of 2005 is because it looked to me at that time that the number of listings wasn't changing (and so was not interesting) and so I stopped collecting data. Notice the spike in the number of listings after Labor Day; on a daily basis SFR inventory is about 40% above this time last year according to ZipRealty (although some agents are reporting more like 70%; depends on what's included in the sample):

Below is the percentage of SFRs currently marked as "Price Reduced" according to ZipRealty. The drop-off after Labor Day is due to the spike in inventory mentioned above. I am certain that percentage will return to about the 45% mark or so after the flood of new listings sit on the market for a while:


And here is the latest Marin "HEAT" Index...a new all-time low of 0.49:

7 Comments:

Blogger David said...

"; the bubble blogosphere is indeed inhabited by some very talented and hard-working individuals; I am surrounded by giants."

Thanks. You are also a BubbleSphere giant.

David
Bubble Meter Blog

Sep 6, 2006, 8:53:00 PM  
Blogger marin_explorer said...

So it's 49 now? Perhaps we should have a pool on how low it will go. I'll wager it will hit 45 before Thanksgiving.

Sep 6, 2006, 9:03:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I expect a doubling of the inventory in Marin by next spring.
I have talked to me realtor "friends" who are reporting being solicited by a large number of would be seller on a daily basis.....the meltdown has officially started, seat down and "enjoy" the ride.
Just remember what attracted most people to marin was the school system. This system will not stay as good if property tax revenues decline further decreasing the demand for homes in Marin.

Sep 7, 2006, 8:59:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This tax discussion... huh? The school systems have been running before pre 2001 bubble pricing times. It's happened before.

Sep 7, 2006, 9:11:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It is easier to adjust to more tax revenues than to less. The fat will have to removed or instead we will have increase class sizes and elimination all non-necessary programs. Guess what will happen? Those who can afford it will pull their kids into private schools and school donations will new lows....and on and on and on.

So while i did not see anything good in housing increasing in price so fast I just can not see what a crah will give us except for the few speculators seating on the sidelines with cash.

Sep 7, 2006, 11:06:00 AM  
Blogger cajun100 said...

Please do not link school finance and health directly to turnover or valuation of housing. It is far more complicated than that -- and it is at the STATE level that nearly all revenues are controlled and distributed for school funding (alomst 70%). This came about after Propositions 13 and 98.
Attempts to more or less equalize the basic ("general") funding per student (ADA) have brought most districts very close to one another -- rich or poor. The divergence at that point is mainly tied to "supplementary" aid -- mainly for the poor, disabled, etc. (from the feds mainly), and through "parcel taxes" (from local owners). Richer the community, easier to get parcel taxes passed.
Housing value (and turnover) DOES directly effect a county's total property tax collections, and THAT eventually affects local government's ability to function. But not the school system.

Sep 7, 2006, 5:30:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...

I'll wager it will hit 45 before Thanksgiving.

And I think you would be right...it's at 0.46 as of this date (9/11/06).

Sep 11, 2006, 11:02:00 PM  

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