Monday, July 17, 2006

Interest-Only Mortgage Reset Map

Here is a map of the frequency of interest-only loans that were initiated in 2003 and that are about to reset. Yes, Marin is in one of those high density black sections. Thanks to the reader who sent this in.


Blogger sf jack said...

Nice to see SF leading the charge, at 26% - this just for those originated in 2003, correct?

It will become even more interesting when the 2004 and 2005 data are seen.

"Welcome to the San Francisco Bay Area - global center of the financially self-delusional!"

Jul 17, 2006, 5:30:00 PM  
Blogger Lisa said...

I think the Chronicle ran an article earlier this year estimating 67% of 2005 Bay Area purchases were made with IO's. Marin specifically was around 70% and Santa Rosa was even higher.

Everyone I know who bought in the last year or two has one of these suicde loans, no kidding. No one made a downpayment of more than 5%. Piggyback loans, the whole mess.

Jul 17, 2006, 6:07:00 PM  
Blogger moonvalley said...

interesting, because on the KSVY RE show up herein Sonoma this afternoon, they were discussing just such an event. The call in RE'ltor was bemoaning the fact that a lot of people have these loans and they'd better re-fi..or rather, "get out" as he so tactfully put it.

Jul 17, 2006, 6:40:00 PM  
Blogger Arioch said...

That would be very interesting to see with the foreclosure & preforeclosure numbers for the areas.

I have a sneaky suspicion that a correlation exists ;)

Jul 18, 2006, 9:20:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Isn't this what they call "Suicide Loans" or "Suicide Mortgages", i.e. if property values don't keep skyrocketing, the mortgage-payers have just committed suicide?

Jul 18, 2006, 11:30:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

since we have already lost all of last years appreciation,and a little more in santa rosa...and actual sales prices keep dropping,it will be a mess.many of these are also stated income/stated asset loans,and if the income on the application was fudged these people are in for an ugly time if they bk,purchase money loan now a recourse loan...was it mortgage fraud,or tax fraud? not a good place to be.the best hope for a lot of people will be a short sale,and they have begun.

Jul 18, 2006, 11:46:00 AM  
Blogger marine_explorer said...

That would be very interesting to see with the foreclosure & preforeclosure numbers for the areas.

Here are some stats for Marin/Sonoma*:
(the figures below are divided by county population)
Marin [1]
Pre-foreclosures: 407 (607)
Foreclosures: 6 (41,160)
Bankruptcies: 62 (3983)
Tax liens: 846 (292)

Sonoma [2]
Pre-foreclosures: 1118 (417)
Foreclosures: 21 (22,213)
Bankruptcies: 183 (2549)
Tax liens: 2659 (175)

Another local county for comparison: San Mateo [3]
Pre-foreclosures: 1137 (615)
Foreclosures: 19 (36,822)
Bankruptcies: 424 (1650)
Tax liens: 17362 (40)

And here’s a place that’s been all over the news: San Diego county: [4]
Pre-foreclosures: 4419 (664)
Foreclosures: 425 (6902)
Bankruptcies: 1592 (1842)
Tax liens: 17362 (189)

I’ve noticed these figures have increased markedly since last summer, and I can only guess they’ll spike as mortgages reset in these “black zones”. Combined with that map, it only confirms my suspicion that home buyers overextended themselves to a greater degree to buy into “prime” areas such as Marin, Sonoma “wine country”, Santa Barbara, San Diego, etc. So what happens to property values in “prime” areas that experience a higher rate of foreclosure—that much more exposure in downturn? As Tom adds, will we see "short sales" in the "prime" areas of Marin?

[1] calculated using est. 2005 population of 246,960 (rounded up)
[2] calculated using est. 2005 population of 466,477 (rounded up)
[3] calculated using est. 2005 population of 699,610 (rounded up)
[4] calculated using est. 2005 population of 2,933,462 (rounded up)
Stats source: 7-18-06
*source: 7-18-06

Jul 18, 2006, 12:43:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...

mariin_exp -

Pardon my density, but what is the difference between the numbers inside and outside the parentheses. Arethey before and after?

Jul 18, 2006, 7:55:00 PM  
Blogger marine_explorer said...

what is the difference between the numbers inside and outside the parentheses

Yeah: looks like I was unclear. The first are number of foreclosures, etc. for that county; the figure within parentheses are same stats, but divided by county population (for a basis of comparison)

Jul 18, 2006, 9:51:00 PM  
Blogger Marinite said...

The first are number of foreclosures, etc. for that county; the figure within parentheses are same stats, but divided by county population

So, if I understand you correctly, Marin County has nearly twice as many foreclosures (41,160) as Sonoma County (22,213) when adjusted for county population? If so, that's a shocker.

Jul 19, 2006, 9:49:00 AM  
Blogger marine_explorer said...

Marin County has nearly twice as many foreclosures (41,160)

Interpreted that way, wouldn’t that be 1/6th of Marin's population? It actually goes more like this: Pre-foreclosures: 407 (607)
In other words, there are 407 pre-foreclosures in Marin, which divided by the population [1], gives one pre-foreclosure per (607) people.

I hope these stats served a useful comparison--sorry for the excessive bandwidth.

Jul 19, 2006, 10:43:00 AM  
Blogger Marinite said...

Now I understand, cool.

Jul 19, 2006, 11:06:00 AM  
Blogger fredtobik said...

Would be interesting to see how many I/O, and armers refi'd in the last year or two.

Jul 19, 2006, 11:16:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

מחשבון משכנתא

Feb 1, 2009, 9:56:00 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home

Terms of Use: The purpose of the Marin Real Estate Bubble weblog (located at URL and henceforth referred to as “MREB” or “this site”) is to present and discuss information relating to real estate and the real estate industry in general (locally, state-wide, nationally, and internationally) as it pertains to the thesis that recent real estate related activity is properly characterized as a “speculative mania” or a “bubble”. MREB is a non-profit, community site that depends on community participation and feedback. While MREB administrators do strive to confirm all information presented here and qualify all doubtful items, the information presented at MREB is neither definitive nor should it be construed as professional advice. All information published on MREB is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind and the administrators of this site shall not be liable for any direct or indirect damages arising out of use of this site. This site is moderated by MREB administrators and the MREB administrators reserve the right to edit, remove, or refuse postings that are off-topic, defamatory, libelous, offensive, or otherwise deemed inappropriate by MREB administrators. You should consult a finance professional before making any decisions based on information found on this site.

The contributors to this site may, from time to time, hold short (or long) positions in mentioned and related companies.